Section 4 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACT
4.1 Macro-economic Impact This section outlines the impact of the floods on the overall economy. Since the economy is diversified, and the wealth of the nation is concentrated mostly in the non-flooded area, the flood had a minor impact on the overall macro-economic aggregates. However, the affected persons constitute more than 60 percent of the total population. While the impact on household assets was minimal, it was higher on household living conditions. As such, a recovery strategy should consider redistribution aspects. 4.1.1 Pre-disaster <strong>Namibia</strong>n Economy <strong>Namibia</strong> is among the strongest performing African economies, with a GNI per capita of US$4,200 in 2008. The economy has registered strong economic growth in recent years, growing by an average of 7.3 percent during 2004-2006. The main source of growth has been the booming mining sector, but also tertiary industries, including Government services, wholesale and retail, and real estate and business services, which accounted for 59 percent of GDP between 2000 and 2007. Figure 31: Share of GDP by sector, 2008 Social 14% Public adm & defense 8% Agri & fishing 8% The economy is highly dependent on the primary sector, namely the diamond industry, and as such remains vulnerable to exogenous shocks. Economic growth slowed to 2.4 percent in 2008 from 4.1 percent in 2007 and estimates for the <strong>2009</strong> growth rate were recently revised downwards to 1.1 percent in March <strong>2009</strong> 10 . The primary sector is expected to decline by 13.3 percent, while the tertiary industry is expected to grow by 2.6 percent in <strong>2009</strong>. Real estate 7% Transp & comm 5% Construction 4% Other 15% Trade 10% Manuf. & mining 29% The most developed mining, fishing and meat processing Source: <strong>Namibia</strong>n Bureau of Statistics, National Accounts, 2008 industries are located in the Karas and Hardap Regions, which are in south and central <strong>Namibia</strong>. These areas were not affected by the floods that affected the northern area of <strong>Namibia</strong>. Economic activity in the affected areas is mainly subsistence farming, and to some extent, tourism, and there is an unequal distribution of wealth that follows regional level patterns in <strong>Namibia</strong>. <strong>Namibia</strong> has retained a prudent fiscal policy stance. In 2008, the Government revenue reached 33 percent of GDP while expenditure was 28.3 percent, resulting in a budget surplus of 4.7 percent of GDP. Receipts from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) remain the highest source of Government revenue, constituting 40 percent of total tax revenue. However, trade liberalization in SACU countries, including the proposed SADC customs union, are expected to decrease tax revenues from international trade in the medium to long term. A projected decline in Government revenue, expected to fall by 2.3 percent in <strong>2009</strong>/2010, coupled with a projected rise in Government expenditure, will lead to a budget deficit of 0.8 percent GDP in <strong>2009</strong>. The level of domestic debt reached 25 percent of GDP in 2008, while external debt is relatively low, at 8 percent of GDP. Government plans to finance the fiscal deficit primarily from the domestic market, which has so far been resilient to the global financial crisis. <strong>Namibia</strong>’s external position has been strong during the recent years. <strong>Namibia</strong> is among the top ten countries registering the highest current account surpluses in middle income countries (18 percent of GDP in 2007), leading to a strengthening of its net foreign asset position (22 percent of GDP in 2006) and increasing its public and private savings. However the <strong>Namibia</strong>n economy is not impervious to the global crisis: while the current account balance started to decline and went down to 8 percent of GDP in 2008, it is expected to only contract further as a result of the global crisis. Forecasts for <strong>2009</strong> estimated the Current Account Balance at 3 percent of GDP, and a 30 percent decline in value terms of exports, as diamond prices and external demand continue to fall. 10 Macro-economic and Fiscal Framework, March <strong>2009</strong>. 30 <strong>Namibia</strong> POST-DISASTER NEEDS ASSESSMENT
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- Page 3 and 4: Foreword In March of 2009, torrenti
- Page 5 and 6: Table of Contents Foreword ii Ackno
- Page 7 and 8: Table 51 Indication of losses incur
- Page 9 and 10: List of Abbreviations AIDS Acquired
- Page 11 and 12: Executive Summary In March 2009, fl
- Page 13 and 14: The recommendations for recovery an
- Page 15 and 16: Strengthened Community Awareness Co
- Page 17 and 18: 1.1 The 2009 Floods Omusati Oshana
- Page 19 and 20: In addition, the President called u
- Page 21 and 22: prolonged dry spells and droughts),
- Page 23 and 24: 2.1 Methodology In the aftermath of
- Page 25 and 26: Figure 10: Distribution of damage (
- Page 27 and 28: The average value of damage in the
- Page 29 and 30: 3.1 Sector Impacts: Infrastructure
- Page 31 and 32: Rail and Air Transport There was no
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- Page 35 and 36: Needs/Timeline Table 16: Summary of
- Page 37 and 38: worst, some in Oshikoto, Kavango an
- Page 39 and 40: Private sector reconstruction using
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- Page 43: Needs The needs of the environment
- Page 47 and 48: Impact on the balance of payment Th
- Page 49 and 50: 4.2 Impact on Income and livelihood
- Page 51 and 52: HIV/AIDS The floods caused consider
- Page 53 and 54: 5.1 Introduction The most likely sc
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- Page 57 and 58: Housing, shelter and settlements Th
- Page 59 and 60: 5.4 Recommendations on when to move
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- Page 65 and 66: 6.5 The way forward The medium and
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- Page 75 and 76: Annex 1 Water Supply and Sanitation
- Page 77 and 78: access. It was observed that if the
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- Page 87 and 88: Annex 4 Agriculture, Livestock and
- Page 89 and 90: System (NEWFIS), reported concerns
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Annex 5 Industry and Commerce Pre-d
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In Namibia, small businesses can be
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Needs In light of the vulnerability
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Table 66: Total damages and lost re
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Governance Issues Namibia is one of
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constructed elevated roads increase
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epresents 31 percent. In comparison
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Table 73: Early and medium and long
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and reproductive health. This was f
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Provision of safe water was done by
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Intensive capacity-building activit
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The Table below indicates the numbe
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Table 80: Budget for 2008/2009 and
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The total damages and losses are su
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displacement and often impact girls
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Needs The education sector response
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The major long-term environmental c
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paltry in comparison to ongoing thr
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Table 90: Environment sector needs
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Annex 11 Food Security Pre-disaster
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mahangu and maize meal must be mutu
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Figure 42: Maize Meal Prices in Urb
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The total amount of food commoditie
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Food distributions • To strengthe
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Annex 12 GIS Mapping Background One
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spectrum (and roughly comparable to
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Useful web links and References For
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Activities Key Outputs Time Frame R
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Activities Key Outputs Time Frame R