Namibia PDNA 2009 - GFDRR

The build-back differently interventions presented in this
report are a preliminary assessment by sector experts in their
field of what would be needed to improve the resilience of
the economy to climate shocks and should be treated as initial
ideas and their costs as order of magnitude. Prior analytical
work would be needed to define these investments in roads,
water and sanitation, housing and agriculture sectors. Moreover,
future investments must also account for the risk from future
flooding through a comprehensive regional hydrology and
climate change study. In addition, local populations would have
to be consulted, since many highly flood-prone areas might
require relocation of populations at risk. See also below the
section on strengthening risk assessment.
Recurrent disasters affect core economic sectors such as
transport, manufacturing and agriculture. Many of the proposed
activities are already included in the National Development
Plan 3 (NDP3), including activities on roads, water supply and
sanitation, and agriculture. Where the proposed needs overlap
with activities proposed under the NDP3, it has been noted
in the report. These estimates would only increase the cost
of NDP3 by one or two percent 2 , and provide the possibility
to refocus investments planned in NDP3 to be more climate
resilient.
Disaster Risk Management Measures
In addition to the “build-back differently” interventions
suggested in infrastructure and agriculture sectors, the
assessment team developed a series of recommended steps
to introduce disaster risk management (DRM) into economic
planning. These suggested interventions will also serve to
mitigate future impacts of the alternate recurrence of floods
and droughts in northern and north-eastern Namibia. The
2009 floods have highlighted areas of priority interventions to
address the most immediate areas of disaster risk management.
These should, however, be a part of a broader risk management
framework to holistically address the risks that Namibia faces.
Enable Legislation and Strengthen Institutions for Disaster Risk
Reduction
The 2009 Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Policy necessitates a
National Act and corresponding regulations to clarify lines of
command during emergencies. The DRR Act and Regulations
could better specify the chain of command during emergencies.
From international experience, the chain of command needs to
be clear, simple and undisputable, giving the Emergency Agency
(in this case the Directorate for Disaster Risk Management
-DDRM) full powers to mobilize the regional authorities,
the military and international partners once the President
declares a State of Emergency. The latter should be based on
parametric triggers – i.e. a pre-agreed indicator of likelihood of
2 The amount estimated varies by growth forecast scenarios.
Figure 3: Residents carrying their
belongings to higher ground, Omusati
flood or drought (e.g. number of consecutive days of heavy or
low rainfall; river levels upstream).
The 2006 National Disaster Risk Management System includes
multi-sectoral DRM Committees and refocuses their role
from emergency response to disaster risk reduction. These
committees could benefit from institutional strengthening
that would allow for a more coordinated response, with
staff trained in DRM principles, and logistical and operational
support. Strategies to build an institutionalised DRM could
bring particular reinforcement at the national levels, as well as
concentrated localized support to the Caprivi and Kavango
Regions.
Strengthened Risk Assessment
Given the latest floods (2004, 2008, 2009) and droughts (2005,
2006, 2007) that have affected the region, climate variability
trends and model changes in floods, droughts and wild fire
hazards could be of particular use to mitigate risk and future
impacts from natural disasters. This may include modelling
indexes such as rainfall intensity, wet day sequencing, potential
evapotranspiration, changes in water availability and average
river flow. It also requires modelling the expected changes
in key hazards (floods, droughts and wildfires) brought about
by climate change. Participatory flood mapping can be a
powerful tool for consensus decision-making and community
consultation of reconstruction decisions in the affected areas.
The first step would be to simulate the disaster impacts of
different flood return periods.
Lessons learned from the 2009 disaster indicates the need to
strengthen the early warning system at several levels, including
(i) improving transboundary collaboration with the Zambezi
River Authority and the Okavango River Basin Commission to
ensure continuous readings for Zambezi and Okavango Rivers;
(ii) installing 17 new gauging stations and 20 new rain gauges
in the Cuvelai System; and (iii) designing warning systems
in accordance with local conditions that could involve flags,
megaphones or another means of communication.
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