Namibia PDNA 2009 - GFDRR

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4.1.2 Macro-economic Impact of Floods Impact on economic growth The analysis in this section is limited to the impact of the floods on the 2009 GDP, and does not include the impact of reconstruction activity. The Bank of Namibia projects that the economy will grow by 0.4% in 2009. The floods mostly affected four productive sectors which accounted for 35 percent of GDP in 2008: agriculture and livestock, industry, commerce and tourism. The total value of damages in these four sectors amounts to N$405 million, which, together with housing (N$386 million), make up almost the entire value of the damages incurred (N$791 million). Losses were also concentrated primarily in the productive sectors; the estimated value of losses was N$584 million compared with the entire value of losses of N$600 million. Sector & Sub-sector Table 29: Summary of damage and losses and the value added losses Damage (N$ million) Losses (N$ million) Value Ownership Value Ownership Public Private Public Private Value added Losses (N$ million) Share of GDP per sector % Infrastructure 279.7 270.1 9.6 32.3 30.2 2.0 - 7.2 Transport 223.2 223.2 - 2.9 1.0 1.9 5.3 Electricity 8.6 8.6 1.3 1.3 1.9 Water and sanitation 47.9 38.3 9.6 28.0 27.9 0.1 Productive 405.1 - 405.1 584.4 - 584.4 386.3 35.7 Agriculture 38.6 38.6 120.9 120.9 96.7 4.3 Industry 143.5 143.5 162.0 162.0 75.0 16.4 Commerce 209.7 209.7 289.7 289.7 209.1 11.0 Tourism 13.3 13.3 11.8 11.8 5.5 4 Social 416.5 30.1 385.7 19.5 0.0 13.8 - 21.8 Housing 385.7 385.7 13.8 13.8 8.3 Health 0.7 5.7 3.9 Education 30.1 30.1 0.0 0.0 9.6 Cross-sectoral 10.0 10.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.0 - - Environment 10.0 10.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.0 Total 1,111.3 310.2 800.4 637.1 31.2 600.3 386.3 73.7 Source: Estimations by PDNA Team As a consequence, while GDP was expected to grow by 1.1 percent before the disaster, real 2009 GDP growth is likely to be revised downwards to 0.5 percent to account for the early impacts of the financial crisis and the floods on the economy. Table 30: Impact of the flood disaster on economic growth Item Value (N$ million) Value (US$ million) Value (percentage) GDP nominal 2009 before disaster 68,978 8,464 GDP nominal 2008 66,280 8,133 GDP nominal 2009 after disaster 68,592 8,416 Share of total production loss/GDP 2009 (%) 0.6 0.6 Real GDP 2009 50,484 6,194 Real GDP 2009 after disaster 50,202 6,160 Real GDP 2008 49,949 6,129 GDP growth before disaster 1.1 GDP 2009 growth after disaster 0.5 Source: Estimations by PDNA Team 31
Impact on the balance of payment The impact of the floods on the balance of payments was limited to the current account. Because of data limitations, the assessment was measured only at the current account level. The 2009 current account forecast is based on recent exports and imports data from the preliminary national accounts of 2008. Impact on exports Exports of ores and minerals account for more than half of total exports (58.8%), dominated by diamonds, which account for nearly a quarter of all exports (24.3%). Manufacturing exports account for 27 percent exports, followed by fishing and meat processing. However, since the main exports are not produced in the affected area, located in the north of Namibia, it did not significantly impact exports. Damages in the area were mostly concentrated in the fishing and meat industries, which are goods that are traded primarily at the local level, or are used for household subsistence. As a result, it would seem that any impacts on exports were due to the global crisis, rather than as a result of the 2009 floods. Impact on imports Reconstruction needs are expected to increase the import bill in 2009 and in subsequent years for the reparation of housing, damaged schools and roads. In addition to emergency food imports, seeds would need to be imported to resurrect the agriculture sector. Increased machinery and equipment would have to be imported for the reconstruction of damaged infrastructure in the trade and manufacturing, as well as electricity, and water and sanitation sectors. As a result, the import bill is expected to rise by 0.3 percent of GDP, (i.e. increase from 43.9 percent of GDP prior to the disaster to 44.1 percent of GDP after the disaster). Impact on service balance caused by the damages on tourism The destruction on the lodging services, cancellations and/or shortening of the tourists’ stay especially in the Caprivi Region have led to an estimated decline in tourism revenue of N$9.3 million. The service balance is then estimated to decline by 0.01 percent of GDP. Table 31: Impact of the flood disaster on the current account balance (2009) Item Value (N$ million) Value (US$ million) Export of goods before the disaster 26,500 3,252 In percent GDP 38.4 38.4 Export of goods after disaster 26,500 3,252 In percent GDP 38.4 38.4 Import of goods before the disaster 30,248 3,711 In percent GDP 43.9 43.9 Import of goods after disaster 30,426 3,733 In percent GDP 44.1 44.1 Current account balance before disaster 2,012 247 In percent GDP 2.9 2.9 Current account balance after disaster 1,824 224 In percent GDP 2.6 2.6 Current account loss (In percent of GDP) 0.3 0.3 Source: Estimations by PDNA Team 32 Namibia POST-DISASTER NEEDS ASSESSMENT
Page 1 and 2: POST-DISASTER NEEDS ASSESSMENT FLOO
Page 3 and 4: Foreword In March of 2009, torrenti
Page 5 and 6: Table of Contents Foreword ii Ackno
Page 7 and 8: Table 51 Indication of losses incur
Page 9 and 10: List of Abbreviations AIDS Acquired
Page 11 and 12: Executive Summary In March 2009, fl
Page 13 and 14: The recommendations for recovery an
Page 15 and 16: Strengthened Community Awareness Co
Page 17 and 18: 1.1 The 2009 Floods Omusati Oshana
Page 19 and 20: In addition, the President called u
Page 21 and 22: prolonged dry spells and droughts),
Page 23 and 24: 2.1 Methodology In the aftermath of
Page 25 and 26: Figure 10: Distribution of damage (
Page 27 and 28: The average value of damage in the
Page 29 and 30: 3.1 Sector Impacts: Infrastructure
Page 31 and 32: Rail and Air Transport There was no
Page 33 and 34: 3.2 3.2.1 Sector Impacts: Productiv
Page 35 and 36: Needs/Timeline Table 16: Summary of
Page 37 and 38: worst, some in Oshikoto, Kavango an
Page 39 and 40: Private sector reconstruction using
Page 41 and 42: not have to provide food to learner
Page 43 and 44: Needs The needs of the environment
Page 45: 4.1 Macro-economic Impact This sect
Page 49 and 50: 4.2 Impact on Income and livelihood
Page 51 and 52: HIV/AIDS The floods caused consider
Page 53 and 54: 5.1 Introduction The most likely sc
Page 55 and 56: Box: 2: Early Recovery: Guiding pri
Page 57 and 58: Housing, shelter and settlements Th
Page 59 and 60: 5.4 Recommendations on when to move
Page 61 and 62: 6.1 Recovery and Reconstruction Str
Page 63 and 64: Figure 36: Long-term reconstruction
Page 65 and 66: 6.5 The way forward The medium and
Page 67 and 68: 7.1 Situation during the Disaster T
Page 69 and 70: of 2-6oC by end of the century, a l
Page 71 and 72: could involve flags, megaphones or
Page 73 and 74: 7.3 On-going interventions While th
Page 75 and 76: Annex 1 Water Supply and Sanitation
Page 77 and 78: access. It was observed that if the
Page 79 and 80: water. Similarly, access roads from
Page 81 and 82: Table 44: Roads proposed for improv
Page 83 and 84: Annex 3 Energy Pre-disaster Situati
Page 85 and 86: Table 50: Losses incurred due to 20
Page 87 and 88: Annex 4 Agriculture, Livestock and
Page 89 and 90: System (NEWFIS), reported concerns
Page 91 and 92: and affect both urban and rural vul
Page 93 and 94: In 1998, the Government launched a
Page 95 and 96: Annex 5 Industry and Commerce Pre-d
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In Namibia, small businesses can be
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Needs In light of the vulnerability
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Table 66: Total damages and lost re
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Governance Issues Namibia is one of
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constructed elevated roads increase
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epresents 31 percent. In comparison
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Table 73: Early and medium and long
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and reproductive health. This was f
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Provision of safe water was done by
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Intensive capacity-building activit
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The Table below indicates the numbe
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Table 80: Budget for 2008/2009 and
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The total damages and losses are su
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displacement and often impact girls
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Needs The education sector response
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The major long-term environmental c
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paltry in comparison to ongoing thr
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Table 90: Environment sector needs
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Annex 11 Food Security Pre-disaster
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mahangu and maize meal must be mutu
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Figure 42: Maize Meal Prices in Urb
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The total amount of food commoditie
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Food distributions • To strengthe
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Annex 12 GIS Mapping Background One
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spectrum (and roughly comparable to
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Useful web links and References For
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Activities Key Outputs Time Frame R
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Activities Key Outputs Time Frame R
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Namibia PDNA 2009 - GFDRR

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