Namibia PDNA 2009 - GFDRR

Impact on the balance of payment
The impact of the floods on the balance of payments was limited to the current account. Because of data limitations, the assessment
was measured only at the current account level. The 2009 current account forecast is based on recent exports and imports data from
the preliminary national accounts of 2008.
Impact on exports
Exports of ores and minerals account for more than half of total exports (58.8%), dominated by diamonds, which account for nearly
a quarter of all exports (24.3%). Manufacturing exports account for 27 percent exports, followed by fishing and meat processing.
However, since the main exports are not produced in the affected area, located in the north of Namibia, it did not significantly impact
exports. Damages in the area were mostly concentrated in the fishing and meat industries, which are goods that are traded primarily
at the local level, or are used for household subsistence. As a result, it would seem that any impacts on exports were due to the
global crisis, rather than as a result of the 2009 floods.
Impact on imports
Reconstruction needs are expected to increase the import bill in 2009 and in subsequent years for the reparation of housing,
damaged schools and roads. In addition to emergency food imports, seeds would need to be imported to resurrect the agriculture
sector. Increased machinery and equipment would have to be imported for the reconstruction of damaged infrastructure in the trade
and manufacturing, as well as electricity, and water and sanitation sectors. As a result, the import bill is expected to rise by 0.3 percent
of GDP, (i.e. increase from 43.9 percent of GDP prior to the disaster to 44.1 percent of GDP after the disaster).
Impact on service balance caused by the damages on tourism
The destruction on the lodging services, cancellations and/or shortening of the tourists’ stay especially in the Caprivi Region have led to
an estimated decline in tourism revenue of N$9.3 million. The service balance is then estimated to decline by 0.01 percent of GDP.
Table 31: Impact of the flood disaster on the current account balance (2009)
Item
Value
(N$ million)
Value
(US$ million)
Export of goods before the disaster 26,500 3,252
In percent GDP 38.4 38.4
Export of goods after disaster 26,500 3,252
In percent GDP 38.4 38.4
Import of goods before the disaster 30,248 3,711
In percent GDP 43.9 43.9
Import of goods after disaster 30,426 3,733
In percent GDP 44.1 44.1
Current account balance before disaster 2,012 247
In percent GDP 2.9 2.9
Current account balance after disaster 1,824 224
In percent GDP 2.6 2.6
Current account loss (In percent of GDP) 0.3 0.3
Source: Estimations by PDNA Team
32
Namibia POST-DISASTER NEEDS ASSESSMENT