Namibia PDNA 2009 - GFDRR

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The build-back differently interventions presented in this report are a preliminary assessment by sector experts in their field of what would be needed to improve the resilience of the economy to climate shocks and should be treated as initial ideas and their costs as order of magnitude. Prior analytical work would be needed to define these investments in roads, water and sanitation, housing and agriculture sectors. Moreover, future investments must also account for the risk from future flooding through a comprehensive regional hydrology and climate change study. In addition, local populations would have to be consulted, since many highly flood-prone areas might require relocation of populations at risk. See also below the section on strengthening risk assessment. Recurrent disasters affect core economic sectors such as transport, manufacturing and agriculture. Many of the proposed activities are already included in the National Development Plan 3 (NDP3), including activities on roads, water supply and sanitation, and agriculture. Where the proposed needs overlap with activities proposed under the NDP3, it has been noted in the report. These estimates would only increase the cost of NDP3 by one or two percent 2 , and provide the possibility to refocus investments planned in NDP3 to be more climate resilient. Disaster Risk Management Measures In addition to the “build-back differently” interventions suggested in infrastructure and agriculture sectors, the assessment team developed a series of recommended steps to introduce disaster risk management (DRM) into economic planning. These suggested interventions will also serve to mitigate future impacts of the alternate recurrence of floods and droughts in northern and north-eastern Namibia. The 2009 floods have highlighted areas of priority interventions to address the most immediate areas of disaster risk management. These should, however, be a part of a broader risk management framework to holistically address the risks that Namibia faces. Enable Legislation and Strengthen Institutions for Disaster Risk Reduction The 2009 Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Policy necessitates a National Act and corresponding regulations to clarify lines of command during emergencies. The DRR Act and Regulations could better specify the chain of command during emergencies. From international experience, the chain of command needs to be clear, simple and undisputable, giving the Emergency Agency (in this case the Directorate for Disaster Risk Management -DDRM) full powers to mobilize the regional authorities, the military and international partners once the President declares a State of Emergency. The latter should be based on parametric triggers – i.e. a pre-agreed indicator of likelihood of 2 The amount estimated varies by growth forecast scenarios. Figure 3: Residents carrying their belongings to higher ground, Omusati flood or drought (e.g. number of consecutive days of heavy or low rainfall; river levels upstream). The 2006 National Disaster Risk Management System includes multi-sectoral DRM Committees and refocuses their role from emergency response to disaster risk reduction. These committees could benefit from institutional strengthening that would allow for a more coordinated response, with staff trained in DRM principles, and logistical and operational support. Strategies to build an institutionalised DRM could bring particular reinforcement at the national levels, as well as concentrated localized support to the Caprivi and Kavango Regions. Strengthened Risk Assessment Given the latest floods (2004, 2008, 2009) and droughts (2005, 2006, 2007) that have affected the region, climate variability trends and model changes in floods, droughts and wild fire hazards could be of particular use to mitigate risk and future impacts from natural disasters. This may include modelling indexes such as rainfall intensity, wet day sequencing, potential evapotranspiration, changes in water availability and average river flow. It also requires modelling the expected changes in key hazards (floods, droughts and wildfires) brought about by climate change. Participatory flood mapping can be a powerful tool for consensus decision-making and community consultation of reconstruction decisions in the affected areas. The first step would be to simulate the disaster impacts of different flood return periods. Lessons learned from the 2009 disaster indicates the need to strengthen the early warning system at several levels, including (i) improving transboundary collaboration with the Zambezi River Authority and the Okavango River Basin Commission to ensure continuous readings for Zambezi and Okavango Rivers; (ii) installing 17 new gauging stations and 20 new rain gauges in the Cuvelai System; and (iii) designing warning systems in accordance with local conditions that could involve flags, megaphones or another means of communication. xiii
Strengthened Community Awareness Community awareness to disaster risk management is critical to ensure that populations on the local level can adapt to flooding or other natural disasters. Many traditional practices of flood adaptation have been lost during the last decades where flood incidences remained relatively low. Community leaders can be instrumental in delivering messages of flood preparedness to local level populations for improved flood resilience. Strengthened Disaster Preparedness and Response At the regional level, there is a need to develop local contingency plans, as part of civil protection mobilization and awareness campaigns, in the affected regions immediately after the disaster. Local authorities should also compile an optimized list of logistical support facilities – the type of equipment and goods needed for the next emergency. At the national level, it is recommended that an International Emergency Advisor be assigned to Namibia for two to three years. The following table provides a brief summary of financing needs for disaster risk management. Table 3: Investment programme for long-term disaster risk management Priorities Value (N$ million) Value (US$ million) Enabling Legislation and Strengthened Institutions for DRR 6.5 0.8 Strengthened Risk Assessment 20.0 2,4 Strengthened Community Awareness 3.3 0.4 Strengthened Disaster Preparedness and Response 15.9 2.0 Total Estimated Needs for DRR Strengthening 45.7 5.6 xiv Namibia POST-DISASTER NEEDS ASSESSMENT
Page 1 and 2: POST-DISASTER NEEDS ASSESSMENT FLOO
Page 3 and 4: Foreword In March of 2009, torrenti
Page 5 and 6: Table of Contents Foreword ii Ackno
Page 7 and 8: Table 51 Indication of losses incur
Page 9 and 10: List of Abbreviations AIDS Acquired
Page 11 and 12: Executive Summary In March 2009, fl
Page 13: The recommendations for recovery an
Page 17 and 18: 1.1 The 2009 Floods Omusati Oshana
Page 19 and 20: In addition, the President called u
Page 21 and 22: prolonged dry spells and droughts),
Page 23 and 24: 2.1 Methodology In the aftermath of
Page 25 and 26: Figure 10: Distribution of damage (
Page 27 and 28: The average value of damage in the
Page 29 and 30: 3.1 Sector Impacts: Infrastructure
Page 31 and 32: Rail and Air Transport There was no
Page 33 and 34: 3.2 3.2.1 Sector Impacts: Productiv
Page 35 and 36: Needs/Timeline Table 16: Summary of
Page 37 and 38: worst, some in Oshikoto, Kavango an
Page 39 and 40: Private sector reconstruction using
Page 41 and 42: not have to provide food to learner
Page 43 and 44: Needs The needs of the environment
Page 45 and 46: 4.1 Macro-economic Impact This sect
Page 47 and 48: Impact on the balance of payment Th
Page 49 and 50: 4.2 Impact on Income and livelihood
Page 51 and 52: HIV/AIDS The floods caused consider
Page 53 and 54: 5.1 Introduction The most likely sc
Page 55 and 56: Box: 2: Early Recovery: Guiding pri
Page 57 and 58: Housing, shelter and settlements Th
Page 59 and 60: 5.4 Recommendations on when to move
Page 61 and 62: 6.1 Recovery and Reconstruction Str
Page 63 and 64: Figure 36: Long-term reconstruction
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6.5 The way forward The medium and
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7.1 Situation during the Disaster T
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of 2-6oC by end of the century, a l
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could involve flags, megaphones or
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7.3 On-going interventions While th
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Annex 1 Water Supply and Sanitation
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access. It was observed that if the
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water. Similarly, access roads from
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Table 44: Roads proposed for improv
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Annex 3 Energy Pre-disaster Situati
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Table 50: Losses incurred due to 20
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Annex 4 Agriculture, Livestock and
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System (NEWFIS), reported concerns
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and affect both urban and rural vul
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In 1998, the Government launched a
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Annex 5 Industry and Commerce Pre-d
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In Namibia, small businesses can be
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Needs In light of the vulnerability
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Table 66: Total damages and lost re
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Governance Issues Namibia is one of
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constructed elevated roads increase
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epresents 31 percent. In comparison
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Table 73: Early and medium and long
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and reproductive health. This was f
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Provision of safe water was done by
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Intensive capacity-building activit
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The Table below indicates the numbe
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Table 80: Budget for 2008/2009 and
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The total damages and losses are su
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displacement and often impact girls
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Needs The education sector response
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The major long-term environmental c
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paltry in comparison to ongoing thr
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Table 90: Environment sector needs
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Annex 11 Food Security Pre-disaster
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mahangu and maize meal must be mutu
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Figure 42: Maize Meal Prices in Urb
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The total amount of food commoditie
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Food distributions • To strengthe
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Annex 12 GIS Mapping Background One
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spectrum (and roughly comparable to
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Useful web links and References For
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Activities Key Outputs Time Frame R
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Activities Key Outputs Time Frame R
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Namibia PDNA 2009 - GFDRR

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