Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community (PDF) - CIA

CHAPTER SEVEN
advance beyond the constraints of the prescribed, prebranched, programmed
learning and ad hoc principles commonly used to design technology-based
instruction. The long-term vision is that training, education, and performance
improvement will take the form of human-computer conversations.
There has been progress toward this end. This conversational capability has
been realized in systems that can discuss issues with students using a formal
language, such as computer programming or propositional calculus. 38 More
recent research suggests that significantly improved natural-language dialogue
capabilities can be achieved by instructional technology. 39 Such an
interactive, generative capability is needed if we are to deal successfully with
the extent, variety, and mutability of human cognition. Much can now be
accomplished by instructional technology, but much more can be expected.
Conclusion
The research discussed above suggests that instructional technology can:
• reduce costs of instruction;
• increase the accessibility of instruction;
• increase instructional effectiveness for analysts;
• reduce the time analysts need to learn facts, concepts, and procedures;
• track progress and ensure that all learners achieve instructional targets;
• provide opportunities for helping analysts to compress experience and
achieve the higher cognitive levels of mastery demanded by their craft.
In addition, the findings suggest a rule of “thirds.” This rule posits that the
present state-of-the-art in instructional technologies can reduce the cost of
instruction by about a third and either increase achievement by about a third or
decrease time to reach instructional objectives by a third. Eventually, instructional
technology should provide a conversation between the analyst and the
technology that will tailor instruction in real time and on demand to the particular
knowledge, skills, abilities, interests, goals, and needs of each individual. This
capability, now available in rudimentary forms, can be expected to improve and
develop with time. Even in its current state of development, however, instructional
technology deserves serious attention within the Intelligence Community.
38
For example, BIP and EXCHECK, respectively. For the first, see A. Barr, M. Beard, and R. C.
Atkinson, “A rationale and description of a CAI Program to teach the BASIC Programming Language”;
for the second, see P. Suppes and M. Morningstar.
39
A. C. Graesser, M. A. Gernsbacher, and S. Goldman, Handbook of Discourse Processes.
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