Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community (PDF) - CIA

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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE Comparatively little work has been done comparing structured techniques to intuition. Robert Folker’s work is one of the exceptions; it compares the effectiveness of a modified form of alternative competing hypotheses with intuition in a controlled experimental design. His study is unique in the field and demonstrates that experimental methods are possible. Geraldine Krotow’s research, on the other hand, looks at differing forms of cognitive feedback during the analytic process and makes recommendations to improve intelligence decisionmaking. 32 Idiosyncratic Variables Variables in the third column are those that influence individuals and their analytic performance. These include the sum of life experiences and enculturation—familial, cultural, ethnic, religious, linguistic, and political affiliations—that identify an individual as a member of a group. I have used the German word Weltanschauung (customarily rendered in English as “world view”) to denote this concept. These idiosyncratic variables also encompass such psychological factors as biases, personality profiles, cognitive styles and processing, cognitive loads, 33 expertise, approach to problem-solving, decisionmaking style, and reaction to stress. Finally, there are such domain variables as education, training, and the readiness to apply knowledge, skills, and abilities to the task at hand. Idiosyncratic Variables Weltanschauung (worldview) Affiliation Familial Cultural Ethnic Religious Social Linguistic Political Psychology Bias Personality Profile Security Trust Cognitive Processing Learning Style Information Acquisition Information Processing Expertise Problem-solving Decisionmaking Cognitive Load Speed/Accuracy Stress Effects Education Domain Location Mentor Training Organizational Domain Procedural Readiness Resources Facilities The relevant psychological literature is extensive. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman began to examine psychological biases in the early 1970s. 34 Their work has found its way into the intelligence literature through Butterfield, 32 Geraldine Krotow, The Impact of Cognitive Feedback on the Performance of Intelligence Analysts, 176. 33 “Cognitive loads” are the amount/number of cognitive tasks weighed against available cognitive processing power. 34 Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “The Belief in the ‘Law of Small Numbers’” and “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.” 41
CHAPTER THREE Davis, Goldgeier, and Heuer, among others. 35 Decisionmaking and problemsolving have been studied since the early 1920s, and these topics are reflected in Heuer’s work as well. 36 Personality-profiling, too, Communicative Variables is well understood and has had an impact on recent Formal intelligence practices and theory. 37 Inter-organization Hierarchical Inter-division Inter-group Intra-organization Hierarchical Intra-division Intra-group Individual Hierarchical Inter-division Intra-group Informal Inter-organization Hierarchical Inter-division Inter-group Intra-organization Hierarchical Intra-division Intra-group Individual Hierarchical Inter-group Intra-group Technology Networked Analysis Collaboration Other well-researched areas, however, have yet to be studied in the context of intelligence. Acculturation and enculturation, educational factors, and training strategies, for example, may yet yield interesting results and insights into the field of intelligence. 38 Communicative Variables The fourth category contains variables that affect interaction within and among groups. Because communication is the vital link within the system—among processes and among individuals—this group of variables logically could be included in each of the other three categories. Its broad relevance, however, makes it seem reasonable to isolate it as a distinct area of variability. The Communicative Variables include formal and informal communications within an organization (from products to e-mails), among organizations, and between individuals and the social networks they create. In his essay on estimative probability, Kent highlights this area by describing the difficulty that producers of intelligence have in communicating the likelihood of an event to their consumers. 39 In addition to addressing organizational issues, case studies by Wohlstetter and others touch on communication and social networks and the impact that communication 35 Alexander Butterfield, The Accuracy of Intelligence Assessment; Jack Davis, “Combating Mindset”; James M. Goldgeier, “Psychology and Security”; Heuer. 36 Frank H. Knight, Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. 37 Caroline Ziemke, Philippe Loustaunau, and Amy Alrich, Strategic Personality and the Effectiveness of Nuclear Deterrence. 38 Acculturation is the cultural change that occurs in response to extended firsthand contact between two or more previously autonomous groups. It can result in cultural changes in groups as well as individuals. 39 Sherman Kent, “Words of Estimative Probability.” 42
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All statements of fact, opinion, or
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The Center for the Study of Intelli
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are literall
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CONTENTS Foreword by Gregory F. Tre
Page 10 and 11: Part IV: Notes on Methodology Chapt
Page 12 and 13: as “CNN plus secrets.” Johnston
Page 14 and 15: INTRODUCTION ment, very open and ho
Page 16 and 17: INTRODUCTION is so small and the se
Page 18 and 19: INTRODUCTION gence analysts would u
Page 20 and 21: INTRODUCTION I mention Mead not onl
Page 22 and 23: eth•nog•ra•phy\n [F ethnograp
Page 24 and 25: CHAPTER ONE Definition 1: Intellige
Page 26 and 27: CHAPTER ONE that consumers of intel
Page 28 and 29: CHAPTER ONE During the interviews f
Page 30 and 31: CHAPTER TWO improvement infrastruct
Page 32 and 33: CHAPTER TWO Secrecy vs. Efficacy se
Page 34 and 35: CHAPTER TWO You know, someday someb
Page 36 and 37: CHAPTER TWO Finding: Rewards and In
Page 38 and 39: CHAPTER TWO distinction, for langua
Page 40 and 41: CHAPTER TWO that analysis is not a
Page 42 and 43: CHAPTER TWO described by participan
Page 44 and 45: CHAPTER TWO instead of academic and
Page 46 and 47: CHAPTER TWO Asked to define their p
Page 48 and 49: CHAPTER TWO satisfaction and anxiet
Page 50 and 51: PART II Ethnography of Analysis 31
Page 52 and 53: CHAPTER THREE A Taxonomy of Intelli
Page 54 and 55: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE ing inte
Page 56 and 57: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE system t
Page 58 and 59: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE cases an
Page 62 and 63: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE has on t
Page 64 and 65: CHAPTER FOUR Testing the Intelligen
Page 66 and 67: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE Syst
Page 68 and 69: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE an e
Page 70 and 71: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE rela
Page 72 and 73: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE ucts
Page 74 and 75: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE the
Page 76 and 77: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE shou
Page 78 and 79: CHAPTER FIVE Integrating Methodolog
Page 80 and 81: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS ing ches
Page 82 and 83: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS good as,
Page 84 and 85: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS case sti
Page 86 and 87: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS cal infr
Page 88 and 89: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS Can Tech
Page 90 and 91: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS done to
Page 92 and 93: CHAPTER SIX have different historie
Page 94 and 95: CHAPTER SIX As an observer, I misse
Page 96 and 97: CHAPTER SIX In contrast, 25 percent
Page 98 and 99: CHAPTER SIX numerous domain matter
Page 100 and 101: CHAPTER SIX Quite the contrary, eac
Page 102 and 103: CHAPTER SIX a practical matter, the
Page 104 and 105: CHAPTER SEVEN Background The argume
Page 106 and 107: CHAPTER SEVEN age about 30 percent,
Page 108 and 109: CHAPTER SEVEN the procedure’s app
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CHAPTER SEVEN includes the ability
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CHAPTER SEVEN advance beyond the co
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CHAPTER EIGHT is the process of lea
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CHAPTER EIGHT often be hired on the
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CHAPTER EIGHT Interestingly, resear
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CHAPTER EIGHT Conclusion and Recomm
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CHAPTER EIGHT research fellowships,
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CHAPTER NINE As the resources avail
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CHAPTER NINE For intelligence analy
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CHAPTER NINE analyses requires sign
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CHAPTER NINE Development and Valida
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CHAPTER NINE agents or agencies of
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CHAPTER TEN Survey Methodology This
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SURVEY METHODOLOGY content and, thu
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SURVEY METHODOLOGY might merely ser
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SURVEY METHODOLOGY group includes a
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CHAPTER ELEVEN Q-Sort Methodology O
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CHAPTER TWELVE The “File-Drawer
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CHAPTER TWELVE 0.15 and for interac
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APPENDIX Jonathan Lockwood and K. L
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APPENDIX Hede Helfrich, “Human Re
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Published Sources Akin
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Camerer, Colin, and Er
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Endsley, M.R. “Desig
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Godson, Roy, ed. Compa
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Jervis, Robert. Percep
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BIBLIOGRAPHY ———, and Barbara
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Miller, George, and Ph
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BIBLIOGRAPHY ———. “The Pros
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Thompson, J. R., R. Ho
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Web resources Buros In
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sealed, world of intelligence. Rob
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