Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community (PDF) - CIA

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CHAPTER TWO Secrecy vs. Efficacy secrecy. I believe this secrecy-efficacy conflict can be stated as a theory, along the following lines. 6 The more open the system (where zero is perfect information access and sharing on the X axis secrecy scale [as shown on the above graph]), the more access an analyst has to all sources of information within the Intelligence Community regarding an adversary. In addition, this openness encourages interorganizational communication, interaction, and sharing of information among analysts and increases the likelihood that an analyst will be more efficient (in this case the Y axis efficiency scale) and therefore effective or accurate in his or her assessment of a situation. Conversely, counter-intelligence is negatively affected by zero-level secrecy and perfect openness. The less open or more compartmentalized the system, the more efficient and effective are counterintelligence activities. Notionally, the two curves would meet somewhere in the tradeoff between efficiency and secrecy. Where they meet would depend on program goals and a clear definition of starting points and end-states. The notional set of curves above illustrates the tradeoff between system efficiency and system secrecy and the effect that the tradeoff has on performance effectiveness, both positive and negative. In this case, the starting and ending points of effectiveness for analysis and for counterintelligence are arbitrary and could be positioned anywhere along a continuum between zero 6 I would like to credit and thank Matthew Johnson at the Institute for Defense Analyses for his help in formulating this theory. 12
FINDINGS and ten. In this theory, analytic efficiency and effectiveness are purely functions of system openness and do not take into account analytic methods or personnel. This theory will require additional refinement, and it may or may not be represented by a tradeoff curve like the one proposed here. The theory will also require numerous controlled quantitative experiments to test its explanatory power. Finding: Time Constraints The work itself is a 24-hour-a-day job, but it never seems like I have any time to actually analyze anything when I’m at my desk. I spend most of my time reading daily traffic, answering e-mail, coordinating papers with everybody, and writing. Mostly I read and write, but when the workday is over, I go home and think. It isn’t like I can turn off my brain. So, I guess I do most of my real analysis on my own time. The majority of the analysts interviewed indicated that time was one of their greatest constraints at work. This comment triangulated with the findings from direct and participant observation. In addition, analysts indicated that there has been a communitywide shift toward focusing on short-term issues or problem solving, thereby addressing the immediate needs of intelligence consumers. This shift in product focus, coupled with a growth in available allsource raw intelligence, has resulted in a change in the pace of analytic production. In order to generate the daily products, analysts have had to change the way they go about doing their work. I haven’t been doing this very long, but I wish I had been a journalism major instead of poli-sci. The pace is excruciating. I don’t get much sleep. It’s like cramming for finals, except we do it every day. Everything I do is reactive. I don’t have time to work my subject. We’re not pro-active here. I’m so busy putting out today’s fires, I don’t have any time to think about what kind of catastrophe is in store for me a month from now. About 15 years ago, I used to have 60 percent of my time available for long-term products. Now, it’s between 20 and 25 percent. I probably have about 30 percent of my time for self-initiated products. 13
Page 2 and 3: All statements of fact, opinion, or
Page 4 and 5: The Center for the Study of Intelli
Page 6 and 7: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are literall
Page 8 and 9: CONTENTS Foreword by Gregory F. Tre
Page 10 and 11: Part IV: Notes on Methodology Chapt
Page 12 and 13: as “CNN plus secrets.” Johnston
Page 14 and 15: INTRODUCTION ment, very open and ho
Page 16 and 17: INTRODUCTION is so small and the se
Page 18 and 19: INTRODUCTION gence analysts would u
Page 20 and 21: INTRODUCTION I mention Mead not onl
Page 22 and 23: eth•nog•ra•phy\n [F ethnograp
Page 24 and 25: CHAPTER ONE Definition 1: Intellige
Page 26 and 27: CHAPTER ONE that consumers of intel
Page 28 and 29: CHAPTER ONE During the interviews f
Page 30 and 31: CHAPTER TWO improvement infrastruct
Page 34 and 35: CHAPTER TWO You know, someday someb
Page 36 and 37: CHAPTER TWO Finding: Rewards and In
Page 38 and 39: CHAPTER TWO distinction, for langua
Page 40 and 41: CHAPTER TWO that analysis is not a
Page 42 and 43: CHAPTER TWO described by participan
Page 44 and 45: CHAPTER TWO instead of academic and
Page 46 and 47: CHAPTER TWO Asked to define their p
Page 48 and 49: CHAPTER TWO satisfaction and anxiet
Page 50 and 51: PART II Ethnography of Analysis 31
Page 52 and 53: CHAPTER THREE A Taxonomy of Intelli
Page 54 and 55: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE ing inte
Page 56 and 57: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE system t
Page 58 and 59: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE cases an
Page 60 and 61: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE Comparat
Page 62 and 63: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE has on t
Page 64 and 65: CHAPTER FOUR Testing the Intelligen
Page 66 and 67: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE Syst
Page 68 and 69: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE an e
Page 70 and 71: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE rela
Page 72 and 73: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE ucts
Page 74 and 75: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE the
Page 76 and 77: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE shou
Page 78 and 79: CHAPTER FIVE Integrating Methodolog
Page 80 and 81: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS ing ches
Page 82 and 83:
INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS good as,
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS case sti
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS cal infr
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS Can Tech
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS done to
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CHAPTER SIX have different historie
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CHAPTER SIX As an observer, I misse
Page 96 and 97:
CHAPTER SIX In contrast, 25 percent
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CHAPTER SIX numerous domain matter
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CHAPTER SIX Quite the contrary, eac
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CHAPTER SIX a practical matter, the
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CHAPTER SEVEN Background The argume
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CHAPTER SEVEN age about 30 percent,
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CHAPTER SEVEN the procedure’s app
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CHAPTER SEVEN includes the ability
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CHAPTER SEVEN advance beyond the co
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CHAPTER EIGHT is the process of lea
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CHAPTER EIGHT often be hired on the
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CHAPTER EIGHT Interestingly, resear
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CHAPTER EIGHT Conclusion and Recomm
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CHAPTER EIGHT research fellowships,
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CHAPTER NINE As the resources avail
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CHAPTER NINE For intelligence analy
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CHAPTER NINE analyses requires sign
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CHAPTER NINE Development and Valida
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CHAPTER NINE agents or agencies of
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CHAPTER TEN Survey Methodology This
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SURVEY METHODOLOGY content and, thu
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SURVEY METHODOLOGY might merely ser
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SURVEY METHODOLOGY group includes a
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CHAPTER ELEVEN Q-Sort Methodology O
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CHAPTER TWELVE The “File-Drawer
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CHAPTER TWELVE 0.15 and for interac
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APPENDIX Jonathan Lockwood and K. L
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APPENDIX Hede Helfrich, “Human Re
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Published Sources Akin
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Camerer, Colin, and Er
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Endsley, M.R. “Desig
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Godson, Roy, ed. Compa
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Jervis, Robert. Percep
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BIBLIOGRAPHY ———, and Barbara
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Miller, George, and Ph
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BIBLIOGRAPHY ———. “The Pros
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Thompson, J. R., R. Ho
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Web resources Buros In
Page 172 and 173:
sealed, world of intelligence. Rob
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