Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community (PDF) - CIA

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CONTENTS Foreword by Gregory F. Treverton ........................................................... xi Introduction ............................................................................................. xiii Background ...................................................................................... xiv Scope ............................................................................................... xvii A Work in Progress .......................................................................... xix Part I: Research Findings Chapter One: Definitions ........................................................................... 3 Chapter Two: Findings................................................................................ 9 The Problem of Bias ........................................................................ 10 Finding: Secrecy Versus Efficacy ..................................................... 11 Finding: Time Constraints ................................................................ 13 Finding: Focus on Current Production .............................................. 15 Finding: Rewards and Incentives ...................................................... 16 Finding: “Tradecraft” Versus Scientific Methodology ..................... 17 Finding: Confirmation Bias, Norms, and Taboos ............................ 21 Finding: Analytic Identity ................................................................ 25 Finding: Analytic Training ............................................................... 28 Part II: Ethnography of Analysis Chapter Three: A Taxonomy of Intelligence Variables ........................... 33 Intelligence Analysis ......................................................................... 34 Developing the Taxonomy ................................................................ 37 Systemic Variables ........................................................................... 39 Systematic Variables ......................................................................... 40 Idiosyncratic Variables ..................................................................... 41 Communicative Variables ................................................................. 42 Conclusion ........................................................................................ 43 Chapter Four: Testing the Intelligence Cycle Through Systems Modeling and Simulation ......................................... 45 The Traditional Intelligence Cycle ................................................... 45 Systematic Analysis .......................................................................... 47 Findings Based on Systematic Analysis ........................................... 47 Systemic Analysis ............................................................................. 50 vii
Findings Based on Systems Analysis ................................................54 Recommendations ............................................................................55 Part III: Potential Areas for Improvement Chapter Five: Integrating Methodologists into Teams of Experts ............61 Becoming an Expert .........................................................................61 The Power of Expertise .....................................................................63 The Paradox of Expertise ..................................................................64 The Burden on Intelligence Analysts ................................................66 The Pros and Cons of Teams .............................................................68 Can Technology Help? ......................................................................71 Analytic Methodologists ...................................................................72 Conclusion ........................................................................................72 Chapter Six: The Question of Foreign Cultures: Combating Ethnocentrism in Intelligence Analysis ...............................75 Case Study One: Tiananmen Square .................................................76 Case Study Two: The Red Team ......................................................81 Conclusion and Recommendations ...................................................84 Chapter Seven: Instructional Technology: Effectiveness and Implications for the Intelligence Community ...........87 Background ........................................................................................88 Meta-analysis Demonstrates the Effectiveness of Instructional Technology ............................................................90 Current Research on Higher Cognitive Abilities ...............................92 Discussion ..........................................................................................94 Conclusion .........................................................................................96 Chapter Eight: Organizational Culture: Anticipatory Socialization and Intelligence Analysts ............................97 Organizational Socialization .............................................................98 Anticipatory Socialization ................................................................99 Consequences of Culture Mismatch ................................................101 Anticipatory Socialization in the Intelligence Community .............102 Conclusion and Recommendations .................................................104 Chapter Nine: Recommendations ...........................................................107 The First Step: Recognizing A Fundamental Problem ....................107 Performance Improvement Infrastructure .......................................108 Infrastructure Requirements ............................................................108 Research Programs ..........................................................................111 The Importance of Access ...............................................................115 viii
Page 2 and 3: All statements of fact, opinion, or
Page 4 and 5: The Center for the Study of Intelli
Page 6 and 7: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are literall
Page 10 and 11: Part IV: Notes on Methodology Chapt
Page 12 and 13: as “CNN plus secrets.” Johnston
Page 14 and 15: INTRODUCTION ment, very open and ho
Page 16 and 17: INTRODUCTION is so small and the se
Page 18 and 19: INTRODUCTION gence analysts would u
Page 20 and 21: INTRODUCTION I mention Mead not onl
Page 22 and 23: eth•nog•ra•phy\n [F ethnograp
Page 24 and 25: CHAPTER ONE Definition 1: Intellige
Page 26 and 27: CHAPTER ONE that consumers of intel
Page 28 and 29: CHAPTER ONE During the interviews f
Page 30 and 31: CHAPTER TWO improvement infrastruct
Page 32 and 33: CHAPTER TWO Secrecy vs. Efficacy se
Page 34 and 35: CHAPTER TWO You know, someday someb
Page 36 and 37: CHAPTER TWO Finding: Rewards and In
Page 38 and 39: CHAPTER TWO distinction, for langua
Page 40 and 41: CHAPTER TWO that analysis is not a
Page 42 and 43: CHAPTER TWO described by participan
Page 44 and 45: CHAPTER TWO instead of academic and
Page 46 and 47: CHAPTER TWO Asked to define their p
Page 48 and 49: CHAPTER TWO satisfaction and anxiet
Page 50 and 51: PART II Ethnography of Analysis 31
Page 52 and 53: CHAPTER THREE A Taxonomy of Intelli
Page 54 and 55: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE ing inte
Page 56 and 57: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE system t
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE cases an
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE Comparat
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE has on t
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CHAPTER FOUR Testing the Intelligen
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE Syst
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE an e
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE rela
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE ucts
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE the
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE shou
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CHAPTER FIVE Integrating Methodolog
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS ing ches
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS good as,
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS case sti
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS cal infr
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS Can Tech
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS done to
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CHAPTER SIX have different historie
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CHAPTER SIX As an observer, I misse
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CHAPTER SIX In contrast, 25 percent
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CHAPTER SIX numerous domain matter
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CHAPTER SIX Quite the contrary, eac
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CHAPTER SIX a practical matter, the
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CHAPTER SEVEN Background The argume
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CHAPTER SEVEN age about 30 percent,
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CHAPTER SEVEN the procedure’s app
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CHAPTER SEVEN includes the ability
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CHAPTER SEVEN advance beyond the co
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CHAPTER EIGHT is the process of lea
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CHAPTER EIGHT often be hired on the
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CHAPTER EIGHT Interestingly, resear
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CHAPTER EIGHT Conclusion and Recomm
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CHAPTER EIGHT research fellowships,
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CHAPTER NINE As the resources avail
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CHAPTER NINE For intelligence analy
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CHAPTER NINE analyses requires sign
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CHAPTER NINE Development and Valida
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CHAPTER NINE agents or agencies of
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CHAPTER TEN Survey Methodology This
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SURVEY METHODOLOGY content and, thu
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SURVEY METHODOLOGY might merely ser
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SURVEY METHODOLOGY group includes a
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CHAPTER ELEVEN Q-Sort Methodology O
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CHAPTER TWELVE The “File-Drawer
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CHAPTER TWELVE 0.15 and for interac
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APPENDIX Jonathan Lockwood and K. L
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APPENDIX Hede Helfrich, “Human Re
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Published Sources Akin
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Camerer, Colin, and Er
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Endsley, M.R. “Desig
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Godson, Roy, ed. Compa
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Jervis, Robert. Percep
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BIBLIOGRAPHY ———, and Barbara
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Miller, George, and Ph
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BIBLIOGRAPHY ———. “The Pros
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Thompson, J. R., R. Ho
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Web resources Buros In
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sealed, world of intelligence. Rob
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