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Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community (PDF) - CIA

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APPENDIX<br />

Jonathan Lockwood and K. Lockwood, “The Lockwood <strong>Analytic</strong>al Method<br />

for Prediction (LAMP),” Defense <strong>Intelligence</strong> Journal 3, no. 2 (1994): 47–<br />

74.<br />

Douglas J. MacEach<strong>in</strong>, et al., The Tradecraft of Analysis: Challenge and<br />

Change <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>CIA</strong> (Wash<strong>in</strong>gton, DC: Consortium for <strong>the</strong> Study of <strong>Intelligence</strong>,<br />

1994).<br />

Don McDowell, Strategic <strong>Intelligence</strong>: A Handbook for Practitioners, Managers<br />

and Users (Canberra, Australia: Istana Enterprises, 1998).<br />

Marilyn Peterson, Applications <strong>in</strong> Crim<strong>in</strong>al Analysis (Westport, CT: Greenwood<br />

Press, 1995).<br />

———, Bob Morehouse, and Richard Wright, eds. <strong>Intelligence</strong> 2000: Revis<strong>in</strong>g<br />

<strong>the</strong> Basic Elements (Sacramento CA: LEIU and IALEIA, 2000).<br />

John Pierce, “Some Ma<strong>the</strong>matical Methods for <strong>Intelligence</strong> Analysis,” Studies<br />

<strong>in</strong> <strong>Intelligence</strong> 21 (Summer 1977, declassified): 1–19.<br />

John Prescott and Stephen Miller, eds. Proven Strategies <strong>in</strong> Competitive <strong>Intelligence</strong><br />

(New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2001).<br />

Edw<strong>in</strong> Sapp, “Decision Trees,” Studies <strong>in</strong> <strong>Intelligence</strong> 18 (W<strong>in</strong>ter 1974,<br />

declassified): 45–57.<br />

David Schum, The Evidential Foundations of Probabilistic Reason<strong>in</strong>g (Evanston,<br />

IL: Northwestern University Press, 1994).<br />

Jack Zlotnick, “Bayes’ Theorem for <strong>Intelligence</strong> Analysis,” (1972), <strong>in</strong> H.<br />

Bradford Westerfield, ed. Inside <strong>CIA</strong>’s Private World: Declassified Articles<br />

from <strong>the</strong> Agency’s Internal Journal (New Haven: Yale University Press,<br />

1995).<br />

Cognitive Processes and <strong>Intelligence</strong><br />

Edgar Johnson, Effects of Data Source Reliability on Inference (Alexandria,<br />

VA: Army Research Institute for <strong>the</strong> Behavioral and Social Sciences, Technical<br />

Paper #251, 1974).<br />

Robert Mathams, “The <strong>Intelligence</strong> Analyst’s Notebook,” <strong>in</strong> Douglas Dearth<br />

and R. Thomas Goodden, eds., Strategic <strong>Intelligence</strong>: Theory and Application,<br />

2nd ed. (Wash<strong>in</strong>gton, DC: Jo<strong>in</strong>t Military <strong>Intelligence</strong> College, 1995).<br />

Avi Shlaim, “Failures <strong>in</strong> National <strong>Intelligence</strong> Estimates: The Case of <strong>the</strong> Yom<br />

Kippur War,” World Politics 28, no. 3 (1976): 348–80.<br />

Tools and Techniques as Cognitive Processes<br />

Bruce D. Berkowitz and Allan E. Goodman, Best Truth: <strong>Intelligence</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

Information Age (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2000).<br />

———, and Allan E. Goodman, Strategic <strong>Intelligence</strong> for American National<br />

Security (Pr<strong>in</strong>ceton: Pr<strong>in</strong>ceton University Press, 1989).<br />

134

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