Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community (PDF) - CIA

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CHAPTER EIGHT research fellowships, professional workshops, and academic forums will help to facilitate better employee relations by providing potential employees with a clearer perspective on what to expect after receiving their badge. 106
CHAPTER NINE Recommendations The First Step: Recognizing A Fundamental Problem It is far too early in the research process to determine if any one organizational model for the Intelligence Community is more or less effective than any other, but I believe there is a fundamental structural question that needs to be addressed at the outset. This is, in my view, that current reporting competes for time and resources with indications and warning (I&W) intelligence. This emphasis is unlikely to change, for several reasons. First, current intelligence reporting results in significant “face-time” for the Intelligence Community with policy makers, who, in turn, provide the resources that fund and support community activities. This is a significant contributor to the social capital that the Intelligence Community commands. The second reason is that in-depth research of the kind that contributes to I&W intelligence is a long-term investment whose payoff is often an abstraction. Not infrequently, successful warnings are taken for granted. Those that fail, however, may well involve the community in public recriminations that cost the Intelligence Community significant social capital. In this sense, the Intelligence Community’s focus on current reporting is understandable. The problem is that producing current intelligence tends to become an all-consuming activity. The majority of analysts who participated in this study said that their time was spent on current reporting. Unfortunately, this does little to improve I&W intelligence, which requires long-term research, in-depth expertise, adoption of scientific methods, and continuous performance improvement. The return for the Intelligence Community, in terms of social capital, may be quite limited and even, as noted above, negative. Thus, the analytic area most in need of long-term investment often gets the least. 107
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All statements of fact, opinion, or
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The Center for the Study of Intelli
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are literall
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CONTENTS Foreword by Gregory F. Tre
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Part IV: Notes on Methodology Chapt
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as “CNN plus secrets.” Johnston
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INTRODUCTION ment, very open and ho
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INTRODUCTION is so small and the se
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INTRODUCTION gence analysts would u
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INTRODUCTION I mention Mead not onl
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eth•nog•ra•phy\n [F ethnograp
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CHAPTER ONE Definition 1: Intellige
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CHAPTER ONE that consumers of intel
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CHAPTER ONE During the interviews f
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CHAPTER TWO improvement infrastruct
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CHAPTER TWO Secrecy vs. Efficacy se
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CHAPTER TWO You know, someday someb
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CHAPTER TWO Finding: Rewards and In
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CHAPTER TWO distinction, for langua
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CHAPTER TWO that analysis is not a
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CHAPTER TWO described by participan
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CHAPTER TWO instead of academic and
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CHAPTER TWO Asked to define their p
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CHAPTER TWO satisfaction and anxiet
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PART II Ethnography of Analysis 31
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CHAPTER THREE A Taxonomy of Intelli
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE ing inte
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE system t
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE cases an
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE Comparat
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE has on t
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CHAPTER FOUR Testing the Intelligen
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE Syst
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE an e
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE rela
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Page 76 and 77: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE shou
Page 78 and 79: CHAPTER FIVE Integrating Methodolog
Page 80 and 81: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS ing ches
Page 82 and 83: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS good as,
Page 84 and 85: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS case sti
Page 86 and 87: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS cal infr
Page 88 and 89: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS Can Tech
Page 90 and 91: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS done to
Page 92 and 93: CHAPTER SIX have different historie
Page 94 and 95: CHAPTER SIX As an observer, I misse
Page 96 and 97: CHAPTER SIX In contrast, 25 percent
Page 98 and 99: CHAPTER SIX numerous domain matter
Page 100 and 101: CHAPTER SIX Quite the contrary, eac
Page 102 and 103: CHAPTER SIX a practical matter, the
Page 104 and 105: CHAPTER SEVEN Background The argume
Page 106 and 107: CHAPTER SEVEN age about 30 percent,
Page 108 and 109: CHAPTER SEVEN the procedure’s app
Page 110 and 111: CHAPTER SEVEN includes the ability
Page 112 and 113: CHAPTER SEVEN advance beyond the co
Page 114 and 115: CHAPTER EIGHT is the process of lea
Page 116 and 117: CHAPTER EIGHT often be hired on the
Page 118 and 119: CHAPTER EIGHT Interestingly, resear
Page 120 and 121: CHAPTER EIGHT Conclusion and Recomm
Page 124 and 125: CHAPTER NINE As the resources avail
Page 126 and 127: CHAPTER NINE For intelligence analy
Page 128 and 129: CHAPTER NINE analyses requires sign
Page 130 and 131: CHAPTER NINE Development and Valida
Page 132 and 133: CHAPTER NINE agents or agencies of
Page 134 and 135: CHAPTER TEN Survey Methodology This
Page 136 and 137: SURVEY METHODOLOGY content and, thu
Page 138 and 139: SURVEY METHODOLOGY might merely ser
Page 140 and 141: SURVEY METHODOLOGY group includes a
Page 142 and 143: CHAPTER ELEVEN Q-Sort Methodology O
Page 144 and 145: CHAPTER TWELVE The “File-Drawer
Page 146 and 147: CHAPTER TWELVE 0.15 and for interac
Page 148 and 149: APPENDIX Jonathan Lockwood and K. L
Page 150 and 151: APPENDIX Hede Helfrich, “Human Re
Page 152 and 153: BIBLIOGRAPHY Published Sources Akin
Page 154 and 155: BIBLIOGRAPHY Camerer, Colin, and Er
Page 156 and 157: BIBLIOGRAPHY Endsley, M.R. “Desig
Page 158 and 159: BIBLIOGRAPHY Godson, Roy, ed. Compa
Page 160 and 161: BIBLIOGRAPHY Jervis, Robert. Percep
Page 162 and 163: BIBLIOGRAPHY ———, and Barbara
Page 164 and 165: BIBLIOGRAPHY Miller, George, and Ph
Page 166 and 167: BIBLIOGRAPHY ———. “The Pros
Page 168 and 169: BIBLIOGRAPHY Thompson, J. R., R. Ho
Page 170 and 171: BIBLIOGRAPHY Web resources Buros In
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sealed, world of intelligence. Rob
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