Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community (PDF) - CIA

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CHAPTER TWELVE 0.15 and for interactive videodiscs, the effect sizes range from 0.17 to 0.66 depending on the population. 8 The effect size for flight simulation is 0.54 and the effect size for tutorials range from 0.25 to 0.41 depending on the presentation of the tutorial material. 9 Although the effect sizes for instructional technology range from 0.15 to 0.66 standard deviations, they all report favorable findings when compared to conventional instruction. There are many possible explanations for the differences in instructional technology effectiveness; it might be the result of population differences, system differences, interactivity or individualization. From a purely utilitarian point of view, the reason may not be all that important. If, at the very least, using instructional technology forces the producer to rethink the content of the course to match the delivery system, then revisiting the pedagogy may be enough to produce the positive effect sizes. Whatever reason for the changes in effectiveness, the use of instructional technology saves instructional time, overhead costs, and results in a higher level of achievement for the students in a variety of domains. 7 The abbreviations in figure one: CBT=Computer Based Training, DI=Distance Instruction, IVD=Interactive Video Disc, SIM=Simulation. More than 300 research studies were used to develop these effect sizes, see Chen-Lin Kulik., James Kulik and Barbara Shwalb, “Effectiveness of Computer-Based Adult Education: A Meta-Analysis”; Chen-Lin Kulik and James Kulik, “Effectiveness of Computer-Based Education in Colleges”; Rob Johnston and J. Dexter Fletcher, A Meta-Analysis of the Effectiveness of Computer-Based Training for Military Instruction. 8 Godwin Chu and Wilbur Schramm, Learning from Television; J. Dexter Fletcher Effectiveness and Cost of Interactive Videodisc Instruction in Defense Training and Education; J. Dexter Fletcher, “Computer-Based Instruction: Costs and Effectiveness.” 9 R. T. Hays, J. W. Jacobs, C. Prince and E. Salas, “Flight Simulator Training Effectiveness: A Meta- Analysis”; Peter Cohen, James Kulik and Chen-Lin Kulik, “Educational Outcomes of Tutoring.” 131
APPENDIX Selected Literature Intelligence Tools and Techniques Jerome K. Clauser and Sandra M. Weir, Intelligence Research Methodology: An Introduction to Techniques and Procedures for Conducting Research in Defense Intelligence (Washington, DC: US Defense Intelligence School, 1976). Stanley Feder, “FACTIONS and Policon: New Ways to Analyze Politics,” (1987) in H. Bradford Westerfield, ed., Inside CIA’s Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency’s Internal Journal (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1995). Craig Fleisher and Babette Bensoussan, Strategic and Competitive Analysis. Methods and Techniques for Analyzing Business Competition (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, 2003). Leonard Fuld, The New Competitor Intelligence. The Complete Resource for Finding, Analyzing, and Using Information About Your Competitors (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1995). Ronald Garst, ed., A Handbook of Intelligence Analysis, 2nd ed (Washington, DC: Defense Intelligence College, 1989). R. Hopkins, Warnings of Revolution: A Case Study of El Salvador (Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1980) TR 80-100012. Morgan Jones, The Thinker’s Toolkit: 14 Powerful Techniques for Problem Solving (New York, NY: Times Business, 1998). Larry Kahaner, Competitive Intelligence. How to Gather, Analyze, and Use Information to Move Your Business to the Top (New York: Touchstone, Simon and Schuster, 1996). 133
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All statements of fact, opinion, or
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The Center for the Study of Intelli
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are literall
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CONTENTS Foreword by Gregory F. Tre
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Part IV: Notes on Methodology Chapt
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as “CNN plus secrets.” Johnston
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INTRODUCTION ment, very open and ho
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INTRODUCTION is so small and the se
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INTRODUCTION gence analysts would u
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INTRODUCTION I mention Mead not onl
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eth•nog•ra•phy\n [F ethnograp
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CHAPTER ONE Definition 1: Intellige
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CHAPTER ONE that consumers of intel
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CHAPTER ONE During the interviews f
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CHAPTER TWO improvement infrastruct
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CHAPTER TWO Secrecy vs. Efficacy se
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CHAPTER TWO You know, someday someb
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CHAPTER TWO Finding: Rewards and In
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CHAPTER TWO distinction, for langua
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CHAPTER TWO that analysis is not a
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CHAPTER TWO described by participan
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CHAPTER TWO instead of academic and
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CHAPTER TWO Asked to define their p
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CHAPTER TWO satisfaction and anxiet
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PART II Ethnography of Analysis 31
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CHAPTER THREE A Taxonomy of Intelli
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE ing inte
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE system t
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE cases an
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE Comparat
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE has on t
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CHAPTER FOUR Testing the Intelligen
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE Syst
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE an e
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE rela
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE ucts
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE the
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE shou
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CHAPTER FIVE Integrating Methodolog
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS ing ches
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS good as,
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS case sti
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS cal infr
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS Can Tech
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS done to
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CHAPTER SIX have different historie
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CHAPTER SIX As an observer, I misse
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Page 104 and 105: CHAPTER SEVEN Background The argume
Page 106 and 107: CHAPTER SEVEN age about 30 percent,
Page 108 and 109: CHAPTER SEVEN the procedure’s app
Page 110 and 111: CHAPTER SEVEN includes the ability
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Page 114 and 115: CHAPTER EIGHT is the process of lea
Page 116 and 117: CHAPTER EIGHT often be hired on the
Page 118 and 119: CHAPTER EIGHT Interestingly, resear
Page 120 and 121: CHAPTER EIGHT Conclusion and Recomm
Page 122 and 123: CHAPTER EIGHT research fellowships,
Page 124 and 125: CHAPTER NINE As the resources avail
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Page 130 and 131: CHAPTER NINE Development and Valida
Page 132 and 133: CHAPTER NINE agents or agencies of
Page 134 and 135: CHAPTER TEN Survey Methodology This
Page 136 and 137: SURVEY METHODOLOGY content and, thu
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Page 142 and 143: CHAPTER ELEVEN Q-Sort Methodology O
Page 144 and 145: CHAPTER TWELVE The “File-Drawer
Page 148 and 149: APPENDIX Jonathan Lockwood and K. L
Page 150 and 151: APPENDIX Hede Helfrich, “Human Re
Page 152 and 153: BIBLIOGRAPHY Published Sources Akin
Page 154 and 155: BIBLIOGRAPHY Camerer, Colin, and Er
Page 156 and 157: BIBLIOGRAPHY Endsley, M.R. “Desig
Page 158 and 159: BIBLIOGRAPHY Godson, Roy, ed. Compa
Page 160 and 161: BIBLIOGRAPHY Jervis, Robert. Percep
Page 162 and 163: BIBLIOGRAPHY ———, and Barbara
Page 164 and 165: BIBLIOGRAPHY Miller, George, and Ph
Page 166 and 167: BIBLIOGRAPHY ———. “The Pros
Page 168 and 169: BIBLIOGRAPHY Thompson, J. R., R. Ho
Page 170 and 171: BIBLIOGRAPHY Web resources Buros In
Page 172 and 173: sealed, world of intelligence. Rob
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