Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community (PDF) - CIA

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BIBLIOGRAPHY Jervis, Robert. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1977. Johnson, David, and Roger Johnson. “The Internal Dynamics of Cooperative Learning Groups” in Richard Slavin, et al., eds. Learning to Cooperate, Cooperating to Learn. New York: Plenum, 1985. ———, et al. “Effects of Cooperative, Competitive, and Individualistic Goal Structure on Achievement: A Meta-Analysis,” Psychological Bulletin 89, no. 1 (1981): 47–62. ———, et al. “The Impact of Positive Goal and Resource Interdependence on Achievement, Interaction, and Attitudes,” Journal of General Psychology 118, no. 4 (1996): 341–47. Johnson, Edgar. Effects of Data Source Reliability on Inference. Alexandria, VA: Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, Technical Paper #251, 1974. Johnston, Rob. Decision Making and Performance Error in Teams: Research Results. Arlington, VA: Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, 1997. ———. “The Effectiveness of Instructional Technology,” Proceedings of the Virtual Reality in Medicine and Developers’ Exposition. Cambridge, MA: VRS, 1995. ———. “Electronic Performance Support Systems and Information Navigation,” Thread 2, no. 2 (1994): 5–7. ———, and Sunil Bhoyrul. “A Preliminary Report of a Task Analysis of Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy Used to Assess the Effectiveness of a Virtual Reality Surgical Simulator,” Journal of Virtual Reality in Medicine 2, no. 1 (1996): 16–19. ———, et al. “Assessing a Virtual Reality Surgical Skills Simulator” in Suzanne Weghorst, Hans Sieburg, and Karen Morgan, eds. Health Care in the Information Age: Future Tools for Transforming Medicine. Washington, DC: IOS Press, 1996. ———, and J. Dexter Fletcher. A Meta-Analysis of the Effectiveness of Computer-Based Training for Military Instruction. Alexandria, VA: Institute for Defense Analyses, 1998. ———, J. Dexter Fletcher, and Sunil Bhoyrul. The Use of Virtual Reality to Measure Surgical Skill Levels. Alexandria, VA: Institute for Defense Analyses, 1998. Jones, Morgan. The Thinker’s Toolkit: 14 Powerful Techniques for Problem Solving. New York: Times Business, 1998. Jung, Carl. The Undiscovered Self. Translated by R.F.C. Hull. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1990. Kahaner, Larry. Competitive Intelligence. How to Gather, Analyze, and Use Information to Move Your Business to the Top. New York: Touchstone, Simon and Schuster, 1996. 147
BIBLIOGRAPHY Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk,” Econometrica 47, no. 2 (1979): 263–91. ———, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982. Kam, Ephraim. Surprise Attack. The Victim’s Perspective. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1988. Kaufman, David L., Jr. Introduction to Systems Thinking. Minneapolis: Future Systems, 1978. Kaufman, Roger. “A Holistic Planning Model: A Systems Approach for Improving Organizational Effectiveness and Impact,” Performance and Instruction Journal, October 1983: 3–10. Kent, Sherman. Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1966. ———. “Words of Estimative Probability,” Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates: Collected Essays. Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1994. Kirk, Jerome, and Marc Miller. Reliability and Validity in Qualitative Research. Qualitative Research Methods, Volume 1. Newbury Park, CA: Sage, 1986. Kirkpatrick, Lyman B., Jr. Captains Without Eyes: Intelligence Failures in World War II. London: MacMillan Company, 1969. Klahr, D., and H.A. Simon. “What Have Psychologists (and Others) Discovered About the Process of Scientific Discovery?” Current Directions in Psychological Science 10. Klein, Gary, Roberta Calderwood, and A. Clinton-Cirocco. Rapid Decision Making on the Fire Ground. Yellow Springs, OH: Klein Associates, 1985, KA-TR-84-41-7 (prepared under contract MDA903-85-G-0099 for the US Army Research Institute, Alexandria, VA). Knight, Frank H. Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1921. Knorr, Klaus. “Foreign Intelligence and the Social Sciences.” (Research monograph, Center of International Studies, Princeton University, 1964.) Krizan, Lisa. Intelligence Essentials for Everyone. Washington, DC: Joint Military Intelligence College, 1999. Krotow, Geraldine. The Impact of Cognitive Feedback on the Performance of Intelligence Analysts. Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, 1992, AD- A252. Kuhn, Thomas. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1970. Kulik, Chen-Lin, and James Kulik. “Effectiveness of Computer-Based Education in Colleges,” AEDS Journal, Winter/Spring 1986: 81–108. 148
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All statements of fact, opinion, or
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The Center for the Study of Intelli
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are literall
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CONTENTS Foreword by Gregory F. Tre
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Part IV: Notes on Methodology Chapt
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as “CNN plus secrets.” Johnston
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INTRODUCTION ment, very open and ho
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INTRODUCTION is so small and the se
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INTRODUCTION gence analysts would u
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INTRODUCTION I mention Mead not onl
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eth•nog•ra•phy\n [F ethnograp
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CHAPTER ONE Definition 1: Intellige
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CHAPTER ONE that consumers of intel
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CHAPTER ONE During the interviews f
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CHAPTER TWO improvement infrastruct
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CHAPTER TWO Secrecy vs. Efficacy se
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CHAPTER TWO You know, someday someb
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CHAPTER TWO Finding: Rewards and In
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CHAPTER TWO distinction, for langua
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CHAPTER TWO that analysis is not a
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CHAPTER TWO described by participan
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CHAPTER TWO instead of academic and
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CHAPTER TWO Asked to define their p
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CHAPTER TWO satisfaction and anxiet
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PART II Ethnography of Analysis 31
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CHAPTER THREE A Taxonomy of Intelli
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE ing inte
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE system t
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE cases an
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE Comparat
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE has on t
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CHAPTER FOUR Testing the Intelligen
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE Syst
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE an e
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE rela
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE ucts
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE the
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE shou
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CHAPTER FIVE Integrating Methodolog
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS ing ches
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS good as,
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS case sti
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS cal infr
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS Can Tech
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS done to
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CHAPTER SIX have different historie
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CHAPTER SIX As an observer, I misse
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CHAPTER SIX In contrast, 25 percent
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CHAPTER SIX numerous domain matter
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CHAPTER SIX Quite the contrary, eac
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CHAPTER SIX a practical matter, the
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CHAPTER SEVEN Background The argume
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CHAPTER SEVEN age about 30 percent,
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CHAPTER SEVEN the procedure’s app
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Page 114 and 115: CHAPTER EIGHT is the process of lea
Page 116 and 117: CHAPTER EIGHT often be hired on the
Page 118 and 119: CHAPTER EIGHT Interestingly, resear
Page 120 and 121: CHAPTER EIGHT Conclusion and Recomm
Page 122 and 123: CHAPTER EIGHT research fellowships,
Page 124 and 125: CHAPTER NINE As the resources avail
Page 126 and 127: CHAPTER NINE For intelligence analy
Page 128 and 129: CHAPTER NINE analyses requires sign
Page 130 and 131: CHAPTER NINE Development and Valida
Page 132 and 133: CHAPTER NINE agents or agencies of
Page 134 and 135: CHAPTER TEN Survey Methodology This
Page 136 and 137: SURVEY METHODOLOGY content and, thu
Page 138 and 139: SURVEY METHODOLOGY might merely ser
Page 140 and 141: SURVEY METHODOLOGY group includes a
Page 142 and 143: CHAPTER ELEVEN Q-Sort Methodology O
Page 144 and 145: CHAPTER TWELVE The “File-Drawer
Page 146 and 147: CHAPTER TWELVE 0.15 and for interac
Page 148 and 149: APPENDIX Jonathan Lockwood and K. L
Page 150 and 151: APPENDIX Hede Helfrich, “Human Re
Page 152 and 153: BIBLIOGRAPHY Published Sources Akin
Page 154 and 155: BIBLIOGRAPHY Camerer, Colin, and Er
Page 156 and 157: BIBLIOGRAPHY Endsley, M.R. “Desig
Page 158 and 159: BIBLIOGRAPHY Godson, Roy, ed. Compa
Page 162 and 163: BIBLIOGRAPHY ———, and Barbara
Page 164 and 165: BIBLIOGRAPHY Miller, George, and Ph
Page 166 and 167: BIBLIOGRAPHY ———. “The Pros
Page 168 and 169: BIBLIOGRAPHY Thompson, J. R., R. Ho
Page 170 and 171: BIBLIOGRAPHY Web resources Buros In
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