Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community (PDF) - CIA

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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE cases and directed to use various methods to analyze the situations and to generate final products. During the training exercises, the verbal and physical behavior of individuals and groups were observed and compared with the taxonomic model. I participated in a number of the exercises myself to gain a better perspective. This process corroborated most of the recommendations that had been made by the experts and novices and also yielded additional variables for two of the categories. The resulting taxonomy is purely descriptive. It Systemic Variables is not intended to demonstrate the weight or Organization Internal importance of each variable or category. That is, Structure the listing is not sufficient to predict the effect of any one variable on human performance. The intention of the enumeration is to provide a framework for aggregating existing data and to create a foundation for future experimentation. Once the variables have been identified and previous findings have been aggregated, it is reasonable to consider experimental methods that would isolate and control individual variables and, in time, indicate sources of error and potential remediation Systemic Variables The column of Systemic Variables incorporates items that affect both an intelligence organization and the analytic environment. Organizational variables encompass the structure of the intelligence organization; leadership, management, and management practices; history and traditions; the working culture, social practices within the organization, and work taboos; and organizational demographics. They also include internal politics, the hierarchical reporting structure, and material and human resources. Industrial and organizational psychology, sociology, and management studies in business have brought attention to the importance of organizational behavior and its effect on individual work habits and practices. The works of Allison, Berkowitz and Goodman, Elkins, Ford, Godson, and Richelson, among others, examine in general the organizational aspects Leadership Culture History Traditions Social Practice Taboo Group Characteristics Hierarchy Resources and Incentives Manpower Budget Technology Assets R&D Facilities Work Groups-Teams External Consumer Needs Time and Imperatives Consumer Use Consumer Structure Consumer Hierarchy Conumer Reporting Politics Internal-Organization Policy Tradition Taboo Security/Access External-National Law Policy External-International Security Denial Deception Policy of intelligence. 29 39
CHAPTER THREE The Systemic Variables category also focuses on environmental variables. These include such external influences on the organization as consumer needs and requirements, time limitations, and methods for using the information; and the consumer’s Overt Covert organization, political constraints, and security issues. The works of Betts, Hulnick, Hunt, Kam, Reproducible and Laqueur address the environmental and con- Consistent sumer issues that affect intelligence analysis. 30 Systematic Variables User Requirements Operations Information Acquisition Collection Methods Information Reliability Information Validity Historical Single Source Dual Source Triangulation Information Archive Storage Access Correlation Retrieval Analytical Methodology Approach Intuitive Structured Semi-structured Information Processing Historical Information Current Information Decision Strategies Estimative Predictive Reporting Verbal Methods Written Methods Case studies that touch on various systemic variables include: Allison, on the Cuban missile crisis; Betts, on surprise attacks; Kirkpatrick, on World War II tactical intelligence operations; Shiels, on government failures; Wirtz, on the Tet offensive in Vietnam; and Wohlstetter, on Pearl Harbor. 31 Systematic Variables The Systematic Variables are those that affect the process of analysis itself. They include the user’s specific requirements, how the information was acquired, the information’s reliability and validity, how the information is stored, the prescribed methods for analyzing and processing the information, specific strategies for making decisions about the information, and the methods used to report the information to consumers. A number of authors have written about the analytic tools and techniques used in intelligence, among them Clauser and Weir, on intelligence research methods; Jones, on analytic techniques; and Heuer, on alternative competing hypotheses. 29 Graham T. Allison, Essence of Decision; Bruce D. Berkowitz and Allan E. Goodman, Best Truth; Dan Elkins, An Intelligence Resource Manager’s Guide; Harold Ford, Estimative Intelligence; Roy Godson, Comparing Foreign Intelligence; Jeffrey Richelson, The U.S. Intelligence Community. 30 Richard K. Betts, “Policy-makers and Intelligence Analysts: Love, Hate or Indifference”; Arthur S. Hulnick, “The Intelligence Producer-Policy Consumer Linkage: A Theoretical Approach”; David Hunt, Complexity and Planning in the 21st Century; Kam, Surprise Attack; Walter A. Laqueur, The Uses and Limits of Intelligence. 31 Allison; Richard K. Betts, Surprise Attack; Lyman B. Kirkpatrick, Jr., Captains Without Eyes: Intelligence Failures in World War II; Frederick L. Shiels, Preventable Disasters: Why Governments Fail; James J. Wirtz, The Tet Offensive: Intelligence Failure in War; Roberta Wohlstetter, Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision. 40
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All statements of fact, opinion, or
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The Center for the Study of Intelli
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are literall
Page 8 and 9: CONTENTS Foreword by Gregory F. Tre
Page 10 and 11: Part IV: Notes on Methodology Chapt
Page 12 and 13: as “CNN plus secrets.” Johnston
Page 14 and 15: INTRODUCTION ment, very open and ho
Page 16 and 17: INTRODUCTION is so small and the se
Page 18 and 19: INTRODUCTION gence analysts would u
Page 20 and 21: INTRODUCTION I mention Mead not onl
Page 22 and 23: eth•nog•ra•phy\n [F ethnograp
Page 24 and 25: CHAPTER ONE Definition 1: Intellige
Page 26 and 27: CHAPTER ONE that consumers of intel
Page 28 and 29: CHAPTER ONE During the interviews f
Page 30 and 31: CHAPTER TWO improvement infrastruct
Page 32 and 33: CHAPTER TWO Secrecy vs. Efficacy se
Page 34 and 35: CHAPTER TWO You know, someday someb
Page 36 and 37: CHAPTER TWO Finding: Rewards and In
Page 38 and 39: CHAPTER TWO distinction, for langua
Page 40 and 41: CHAPTER TWO that analysis is not a
Page 42 and 43: CHAPTER TWO described by participan
Page 44 and 45: CHAPTER TWO instead of academic and
Page 46 and 47: CHAPTER TWO Asked to define their p
Page 48 and 49: CHAPTER TWO satisfaction and anxiet
Page 50 and 51: PART II Ethnography of Analysis 31
Page 52 and 53: CHAPTER THREE A Taxonomy of Intelli
Page 54 and 55: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE ing inte
Page 56 and 57: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE system t
Page 60 and 61: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE Comparat
Page 62 and 63: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE has on t
Page 64 and 65: CHAPTER FOUR Testing the Intelligen
Page 66 and 67: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE Syst
Page 68 and 69: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE an e
Page 70 and 71: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE rela
Page 72 and 73: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE ucts
Page 74 and 75: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE the
Page 76 and 77: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE shou
Page 78 and 79: CHAPTER FIVE Integrating Methodolog
Page 80 and 81: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS ing ches
Page 82 and 83: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS good as,
Page 84 and 85: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS case sti
Page 86 and 87: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS cal infr
Page 88 and 89: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS Can Tech
Page 90 and 91: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS done to
Page 92 and 93: CHAPTER SIX have different historie
Page 94 and 95: CHAPTER SIX As an observer, I misse
Page 96 and 97: CHAPTER SIX In contrast, 25 percent
Page 98 and 99: CHAPTER SIX numerous domain matter
Page 100 and 101: CHAPTER SIX Quite the contrary, eac
Page 102 and 103: CHAPTER SIX a practical matter, the
Page 104 and 105: CHAPTER SEVEN Background The argume
Page 106 and 107: CHAPTER SEVEN age about 30 percent,
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CHAPTER SEVEN the procedure’s app
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CHAPTER SEVEN includes the ability
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CHAPTER SEVEN advance beyond the co
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CHAPTER EIGHT is the process of lea
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CHAPTER EIGHT often be hired on the
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CHAPTER EIGHT Interestingly, resear
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CHAPTER EIGHT Conclusion and Recomm
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CHAPTER EIGHT research fellowships,
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CHAPTER NINE As the resources avail
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CHAPTER NINE For intelligence analy
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CHAPTER NINE analyses requires sign
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CHAPTER NINE Development and Valida
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CHAPTER NINE agents or agencies of
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CHAPTER TEN Survey Methodology This
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SURVEY METHODOLOGY content and, thu
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SURVEY METHODOLOGY might merely ser
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SURVEY METHODOLOGY group includes a
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CHAPTER ELEVEN Q-Sort Methodology O
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CHAPTER TWELVE The “File-Drawer
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CHAPTER TWELVE 0.15 and for interac
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APPENDIX Jonathan Lockwood and K. L
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APPENDIX Hede Helfrich, “Human Re
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Published Sources Akin
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Camerer, Colin, and Er
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Endsley, M.R. “Desig
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Godson, Roy, ed. Compa
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Jervis, Robert. Percep
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BIBLIOGRAPHY ———, and Barbara
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Miller, George, and Ph
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BIBLIOGRAPHY ———. “The Pros
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Thompson, J. R., R. Ho
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Web resources Buros In
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sealed, world of intelligence. Rob
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