Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community (PDF) - CIA

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APPENDIX Jonathan Lockwood and K. Lockwood, “The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP),” Defense Intelligence Journal 3, no. 2 (1994): 47– 74. Douglas J. MacEachin, et al., The Tradecraft of Analysis: Challenge and Change in the CIA (Washington, DC: Consortium for the Study of Intelligence, 1994). Don McDowell, Strategic Intelligence: A Handbook for Practitioners, Managers and Users (Canberra, Australia: Istana Enterprises, 1998). Marilyn Peterson, Applications in Criminal Analysis (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1995). ———, Bob Morehouse, and Richard Wright, eds. Intelligence 2000: Revising the Basic Elements (Sacramento CA: LEIU and IALEIA, 2000). John Pierce, “Some Mathematical Methods for Intelligence Analysis,” Studies in Intelligence 21 (Summer 1977, declassified): 1–19. John Prescott and Stephen Miller, eds. Proven Strategies in Competitive Intelligence (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2001). Edwin Sapp, “Decision Trees,” Studies in Intelligence 18 (Winter 1974, declassified): 45–57. David Schum, The Evidential Foundations of Probabilistic Reasoning (Evanston, IL: Northwestern University Press, 1994). Jack Zlotnick, “Bayes’ Theorem for Intelligence Analysis,” (1972), in H. Bradford Westerfield, ed. Inside CIA’s Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency’s Internal Journal (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1995). Cognitive Processes and Intelligence Edgar Johnson, Effects of Data Source Reliability on Inference (Alexandria, VA: Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, Technical Paper #251, 1974). Robert Mathams, “The Intelligence Analyst’s Notebook,” in Douglas Dearth and R. Thomas Goodden, eds., Strategic Intelligence: Theory and Application, 2nd ed. (Washington, DC: Joint Military Intelligence College, 1995). Avi Shlaim, “Failures in National Intelligence Estimates: The Case of the Yom Kippur War,” World Politics 28, no. 3 (1976): 348–80. Tools and Techniques as Cognitive Processes Bruce D. Berkowitz and Allan E. Goodman, Best Truth: Intelligence in the Information Age (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2000). ———, and Allan E. Goodman, Strategic Intelligence for American National Security (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1989). 134
APPENDIX Sherman Kent, “Words of Estimative Probability,” Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates: Collected Essays (Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1994). Lisa Krizan, Intelligence Essentials for Everyone (Washington, DC: Joint Military Intelligence College, 1999). Intelligence Analysis as Individual Cognitive Process Alexander Butterfield, The Accuracy of Intelligence Assessment: Bias, Perception, and Judgment in Analysis and Decision (Newport, RI: Naval War College, 1993). Richards J. Heuer, Jr., Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1999). Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1977). Ephraim Kam, Surprise Attack: The Victim’s Perspective (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1988). Geraldine Krotow, The Impact of Cognitive Feedback on the Performance of Intelligence Analysts (Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, 1992). Mark Lowenthal, Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy (Washington, DC: CQ, 2000). David Moore, Creating Intelligence: Evidence and Inference in the Analysis Process. Unpublished Masters Thesis (Washington DC: Joint Military Intelligence College, 2002). J. R. Thompson, R. Hopf-Weichel, and R. Geiselman, The Cognitive Bases of Intelligence Analysis (Alexandria, VA: Army Research Institute, Research Report 1362, 1984). Error Daniela Busse and Chris Johnson “Using a Cognitive Theoretical Framework to Support Accident Analysis,” in Proceedings of the Working Group on Human Error, Safety, and System Development (Seattle, WA: International Federation for Information Processing, 1998, 36–43). Peter Fishburn, Utility Theory for Decision Making (New York: John Wiley, 1970). Paul Fitts and Michael Posner, Human Performance (Belmont, CA: Brooks Cole, 1967). John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa, “The Hidden Traps in Decision Making,” Harvard Business Review, Sept.– Oct. 1998: 47–58. 135
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All statements of fact, opinion, or
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The Center for the Study of Intelli
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are literall
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CONTENTS Foreword by Gregory F. Tre
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Part IV: Notes on Methodology Chapt
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as “CNN plus secrets.” Johnston
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INTRODUCTION ment, very open and ho
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INTRODUCTION is so small and the se
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INTRODUCTION gence analysts would u
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INTRODUCTION I mention Mead not onl
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eth•nog•ra•phy\n [F ethnograp
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CHAPTER ONE Definition 1: Intellige
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CHAPTER ONE that consumers of intel
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CHAPTER ONE During the interviews f
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CHAPTER TWO improvement infrastruct
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CHAPTER TWO Secrecy vs. Efficacy se
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CHAPTER TWO You know, someday someb
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CHAPTER TWO Finding: Rewards and In
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CHAPTER TWO distinction, for langua
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CHAPTER TWO that analysis is not a
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CHAPTER TWO described by participan
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CHAPTER TWO instead of academic and
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CHAPTER TWO Asked to define their p
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CHAPTER TWO satisfaction and anxiet
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PART II Ethnography of Analysis 31
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CHAPTER THREE A Taxonomy of Intelli
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE ing inte
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE system t
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE cases an
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE Comparat
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A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE has on t
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CHAPTER FOUR Testing the Intelligen
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE Syst
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE an e
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE rela
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE ucts
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE the
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE shou
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CHAPTER FIVE Integrating Methodolog
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS ing ches
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS good as,
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS case sti
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS cal infr
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS Can Tech
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS done to
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CHAPTER SIX have different historie
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CHAPTER SIX As an observer, I misse
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CHAPTER SIX In contrast, 25 percent
Page 98 and 99: CHAPTER SIX numerous domain matter
Page 100 and 101: CHAPTER SIX Quite the contrary, eac
Page 102 and 103: CHAPTER SIX a practical matter, the
Page 104 and 105: CHAPTER SEVEN Background The argume
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Page 108 and 109: CHAPTER SEVEN the procedure’s app
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Page 114 and 115: CHAPTER EIGHT is the process of lea
Page 116 and 117: CHAPTER EIGHT often be hired on the
Page 118 and 119: CHAPTER EIGHT Interestingly, resear
Page 120 and 121: CHAPTER EIGHT Conclusion and Recomm
Page 122 and 123: CHAPTER EIGHT research fellowships,
Page 124 and 125: CHAPTER NINE As the resources avail
Page 126 and 127: CHAPTER NINE For intelligence analy
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Page 130 and 131: CHAPTER NINE Development and Valida
Page 132 and 133: CHAPTER NINE agents or agencies of
Page 134 and 135: CHAPTER TEN Survey Methodology This
Page 136 and 137: SURVEY METHODOLOGY content and, thu
Page 138 and 139: SURVEY METHODOLOGY might merely ser
Page 140 and 141: SURVEY METHODOLOGY group includes a
Page 142 and 143: CHAPTER ELEVEN Q-Sort Methodology O
Page 144 and 145: CHAPTER TWELVE The “File-Drawer
Page 146 and 147: CHAPTER TWELVE 0.15 and for interac
Page 150 and 151: APPENDIX Hede Helfrich, “Human Re
Page 152 and 153: BIBLIOGRAPHY Published Sources Akin
Page 154 and 155: BIBLIOGRAPHY Camerer, Colin, and Er
Page 156 and 157: BIBLIOGRAPHY Endsley, M.R. “Desig
Page 158 and 159: BIBLIOGRAPHY Godson, Roy, ed. Compa
Page 160 and 161: BIBLIOGRAPHY Jervis, Robert. Percep
Page 162 and 163: BIBLIOGRAPHY ———, and Barbara
Page 164 and 165: BIBLIOGRAPHY Miller, George, and Ph
Page 166 and 167: BIBLIOGRAPHY ———. “The Pros
Page 168 and 169: BIBLIOGRAPHY Thompson, J. R., R. Ho
Page 170 and 171: BIBLIOGRAPHY Web resources Buros In
Page 172 and 173: sealed, world of intelligence. Rob
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