Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community (PDF) - CIA

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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS done to advance methodological science. Methodological improvements are left primarily to the individual domains, a practice that risks falling into the same paradoxical trap that currently exists. What is needed is an intelligencecentric approach to methodology that will include the methods and procedures of many domains and the development of heuristics and techniques unique to intelligence. In short, intelligence analysis needs its own analytic heuristics that are designed, developed, and tested by professional analytic methodologists. The desired outcome would be a combined approach that includes formal thematic teams with structured organizational principles, technological systems designed with significant input from domain experts, and a cadre of analytic methodologists. These methodologists would act as in-house consultants for analytic teams, generate new methods specific to intelligence analysis, modify and improve existing methods of analysis, and promote the professionalization of the discipline of intelligence. Although, at first, developing a cadre of analytic methodologists would require using specialists from a variety of other domains and professional associations, in time, the discipline would mature into its own subdiscipline with its own measures of validity and reliability. 73
CHAPTER SIX The Question of Foreign Cultures: Combating Ethnocentrism in Intelligence Analysis The intelligence literature often cautions intelligence professionals to be wary of mirror imaging. 1 Although the term is a misnomer (a mirror image is a reverse image), the concept is that individuals perceive foreigners—both friends and adversaries of the United States—as thinking the same way as Americans. 2 Individuals do, in fact, have a natural tendency to assume that others think and perceive the world in the same way they do. This type of projective identification, or ethnocentrism, is the consequence of a combination of cognitive and cultural biases resulting from a lifetime of enculturation, culturally bound heuristics, and missing, or inadequate, information. 3 Ethnocentrism is a phenomenon that operates on a conscious level, but it is difficult to recognize in oneself and equally difficult to counteract. In part, this is because, in cases of ethnocentric thinking, an individual does not recognize that important information is missing or, more important, that his worldview and problem-solving heuristics interfere with the process of recognizing information that conflicts or refutes his assumptions. Take, for example, the proposition that others do not think like Americans. It seems only intuitive that other tribes, ethnic groups, nationalities, and states 1 Alexander Butterfield, The Accuracy of Intelligence Assessment; Richards J. Heuer, Jr., Psychology of Intelligence Analysis; Lisa Krizan, Intelligence Essentials for Everyone; J. R. Thompson, R. Hopf-Weichel, and R. Geiselman, The Cognitive Bases of Intelligence Analysis. 2 In this work, I use the broader term “ethnocentrism” to refer to the concept represented by mirror imaging and projective identification . 3 In anthropology, ethnocentrism is the tendency to judge the customs of other societies by the standards of one's own culture. This includes projecting one’s own cognition and norms onto others. 75
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All statements of fact, opinion, or
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The Center for the Study of Intelli
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are literall
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CONTENTS Foreword by Gregory F. Tre
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Part IV: Notes on Methodology Chapt
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as “CNN plus secrets.” Johnston
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INTRODUCTION ment, very open and ho
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INTRODUCTION is so small and the se
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INTRODUCTION gence analysts would u
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INTRODUCTION I mention Mead not onl
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eth•nog•ra•phy\n [F ethnograp
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CHAPTER ONE Definition 1: Intellige
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CHAPTER ONE that consumers of intel
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CHAPTER ONE During the interviews f
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CHAPTER TWO improvement infrastruct
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CHAPTER TWO Secrecy vs. Efficacy se
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CHAPTER TWO You know, someday someb
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CHAPTER TWO Finding: Rewards and In
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CHAPTER TWO distinction, for langua
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Page 42 and 43: CHAPTER TWO described by participan
Page 44 and 45: CHAPTER TWO instead of academic and
Page 46 and 47: CHAPTER TWO Asked to define their p
Page 48 and 49: CHAPTER TWO satisfaction and anxiet
Page 50 and 51: PART II Ethnography of Analysis 31
Page 52 and 53: CHAPTER THREE A Taxonomy of Intelli
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Page 58 and 59: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE cases an
Page 60 and 61: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE Comparat
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Page 64 and 65: CHAPTER FOUR Testing the Intelligen
Page 66 and 67: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE Syst
Page 68 and 69: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE an e
Page 70 and 71: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE rela
Page 72 and 73: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE ucts
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Page 78 and 79: CHAPTER FIVE Integrating Methodolog
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Page 84 and 85: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS case sti
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Page 88 and 89: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS Can Tech
Page 92 and 93: CHAPTER SIX have different historie
Page 94 and 95: CHAPTER SIX As an observer, I misse
Page 96 and 97: CHAPTER SIX In contrast, 25 percent
Page 98 and 99: CHAPTER SIX numerous domain matter
Page 100 and 101: CHAPTER SIX Quite the contrary, eac
Page 102 and 103: CHAPTER SIX a practical matter, the
Page 104 and 105: CHAPTER SEVEN Background The argume
Page 106 and 107: CHAPTER SEVEN age about 30 percent,
Page 108 and 109: CHAPTER SEVEN the procedure’s app
Page 110 and 111: CHAPTER SEVEN includes the ability
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Page 114 and 115: CHAPTER EIGHT is the process of lea
Page 116 and 117: CHAPTER EIGHT often be hired on the
Page 118 and 119: CHAPTER EIGHT Interestingly, resear
Page 120 and 121: CHAPTER EIGHT Conclusion and Recomm
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Page 124 and 125: CHAPTER NINE As the resources avail
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Page 130 and 131: CHAPTER NINE Development and Valida
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Page 134 and 135: CHAPTER TEN Survey Methodology This
Page 136 and 137: SURVEY METHODOLOGY content and, thu
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SURVEY METHODOLOGY group includes a
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CHAPTER ELEVEN Q-Sort Methodology O
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CHAPTER TWELVE The “File-Drawer
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CHAPTER TWELVE 0.15 and for interac
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APPENDIX Jonathan Lockwood and K. L
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APPENDIX Hede Helfrich, “Human Re
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Published Sources Akin
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Camerer, Colin, and Er
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Endsley, M.R. “Desig
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Godson, Roy, ed. Compa
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Jervis, Robert. Percep
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BIBLIOGRAPHY ———, and Barbara
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Miller, George, and Ph
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BIBLIOGRAPHY ———. “The Pros
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Thompson, J. R., R. Ho
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Web resources Buros In
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sealed, world of intelligence. Rob
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