Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community (PDF) - CIA

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CHAPTER FIVE Integrating Methodologists into Teams of Experts 1 Intelligence analysis, like other complex tasks, demands considerable expertise. It requires individuals who can recognize patterns in large data sets, solve complex problems, and make predictions about future behavior or events. To perform these tasks successfully, analysts must dedicate years to researching specific topics, processes, and geographic regions. Paradoxically, it is the specificity of expertise that makes expert forecasts unreliable. While experts outperform novices and machines in pattern recognition and problem solving, expert predictions of future behavior or events are seldom as accurate as Bayesian probabilities. 2 This is due, in part, to cognitive biases and processing-time constraints and, in part, to the nature of expertise itself and the process by which one becomes an expert. Becoming an Expert Expertise is commitment coupled with creativity. By this, I mean the commitment of time, energy, and resources to a relatively narrow field of study and the creative energy necessary to generate new knowledge in that field. It takes a great deal of time and regular exposure to a large number of cases to become an expert. 1 A version of this chapter originally appeared as “Integrating Methodologists into Teams of Substantive Experts in Studies in Intelligence 47, no. 1 (2003): 57–65. 2 Method for estimating the probability of a given outcome developed by Thomas Bayes (1702– 61), an English mathematician. See Thomas Bayes, “An Essay Toward Solving a Problem In the Doctrine of Chances.” 61
CHAPTER FIVE Entering a field of study as a novice, an individual needs to learn the heuristics and constraints—that is, the guiding principles and rules—of a given task in order to perform that task. Concurrently, the novice needs to be exposed to specific cases that test the reliability of such heuristics. Generally, novices find mentors to guide them through the process of acquiring new knowledge. A fairly simple example would be someone learning to play chess. The novice chess player seeks a mentor who can explain the object of the game, the number of spaces, the names of the pieces, the function of each piece, how each piece is moved, and the necessary conditions for winning or losing a game. In time, and with much practice, the novice begins to recognize patterns of behavior within cases and, thus, becomes a journeyman. With more practice and exposure to increasingly complex cases, the journeyman finds patterns not only within but also among cases and, more important, learns that these patterns often repeat themselves. Throughout, the journeyman still maintains regular contact with a mentor to solve specific problems and to learn more complex strategies. Returning to the example of the chess player, the individual begins to learn patterns of opening moves, offensive and defensive strategies, and patterns of victory and defeat. The next stage begins when a journeyman makes and tests hypotheses about future behavior based on past experiences. Once he creatively generates knowledge, rather than simply matching patterns, he becomes an expert. At this point, he becomes responsible for his own knowledge and no longer needs a mentor. In the chess example, once a journeyman begins competing against experts, makes predictions based on patterns, and tests those predictions against actual behavior, he is generating new knowledge and a deeper understanding of the game. He is creating his own cases rather than relying on the cases of others. The chess example in the preceding paragraphs is a concise description of an apprenticeship model. Apprenticeship may seem to many a restrictive, oldfashioned mode of education, but it remains a standard method of training for many complex tasks. In fact, academic doctoral programs are based on an apprenticeship model, as are such fields as law, music, engineering, and medicine. Graduate students enter fields of study, find mentors, and begin the long process of becoming independent experts and generating new knowledge in their respective domains. To some, playing chess may appear rather trivial when compared, for example, with making medical diagnoses, but both are highly complex tasks. Chess heuristics are well-defined, whereas medical diagnoses seem more open ended and variable. In both instances, however, there are tens of thousands of potential patterns. A research study discovered that chess masters had spent between 10,000 and 20,000 hours, or more than 10 years, studying and play- 62
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All statements of fact, opinion, or
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The Center for the Study of Intelli
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are literall
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CONTENTS Foreword by Gregory F. Tre
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Part IV: Notes on Methodology Chapt
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as “CNN plus secrets.” Johnston
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INTRODUCTION ment, very open and ho
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INTRODUCTION is so small and the se
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INTRODUCTION gence analysts would u
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INTRODUCTION I mention Mead not onl
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eth•nog•ra•phy\n [F ethnograp
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CHAPTER ONE Definition 1: Intellige
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CHAPTER ONE that consumers of intel
Page 28 and 29: CHAPTER ONE During the interviews f
Page 30 and 31: CHAPTER TWO improvement infrastruct
Page 32 and 33: CHAPTER TWO Secrecy vs. Efficacy se
Page 34 and 35: CHAPTER TWO You know, someday someb
Page 36 and 37: CHAPTER TWO Finding: Rewards and In
Page 38 and 39: CHAPTER TWO distinction, for langua
Page 40 and 41: CHAPTER TWO that analysis is not a
Page 42 and 43: CHAPTER TWO described by participan
Page 44 and 45: CHAPTER TWO instead of academic and
Page 46 and 47: CHAPTER TWO Asked to define their p
Page 48 and 49: CHAPTER TWO satisfaction and anxiet
Page 50 and 51: PART II Ethnography of Analysis 31
Page 52 and 53: CHAPTER THREE A Taxonomy of Intelli
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Page 64 and 65: CHAPTER FOUR Testing the Intelligen
Page 66 and 67: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE Syst
Page 68 and 69: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE an e
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Page 72 and 73: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE ucts
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Page 80 and 81: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS ing ches
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Page 88 and 89: INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS Can Tech
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Page 92 and 93: CHAPTER SIX have different historie
Page 94 and 95: CHAPTER SIX As an observer, I misse
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Page 104 and 105: CHAPTER SEVEN Background The argume
Page 106 and 107: CHAPTER SEVEN age about 30 percent,
Page 108 and 109: CHAPTER SEVEN the procedure’s app
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Page 114 and 115: CHAPTER EIGHT is the process of lea
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Page 118 and 119: CHAPTER EIGHT Interestingly, resear
Page 120 and 121: CHAPTER EIGHT Conclusion and Recomm
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Page 124 and 125: CHAPTER NINE As the resources avail
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CHAPTER NINE analyses requires sign
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CHAPTER NINE Development and Valida
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CHAPTER NINE agents or agencies of
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CHAPTER TEN Survey Methodology This
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SURVEY METHODOLOGY content and, thu
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SURVEY METHODOLOGY might merely ser
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SURVEY METHODOLOGY group includes a
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CHAPTER ELEVEN Q-Sort Methodology O
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CHAPTER TWELVE The “File-Drawer
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CHAPTER TWELVE 0.15 and for interac
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APPENDIX Jonathan Lockwood and K. L
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APPENDIX Hede Helfrich, “Human Re
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Published Sources Akin
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Camerer, Colin, and Er
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Endsley, M.R. “Desig
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Godson, Roy, ed. Compa
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Jervis, Robert. Percep
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BIBLIOGRAPHY ———, and Barbara
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Miller, George, and Ph
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BIBLIOGRAPHY ———. “The Pros
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Thompson, J. R., R. Ho
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Web resources Buros In
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sealed, world of intelligence. Rob
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