Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community (PDF) - CIA

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CHAPTER ONE Definition 1: Intelligence is secret state or group activity to understand or influence foreign or domestic entities. The above definition of intelligence, as used in this text, is a slightly modified version of the one that appeared in Michael Warner’s work in a recent article in Studies In Intelligence. 1 Warner reviews and synthesizes a number of previous attempts to define the discipline of intelligence and comes to the conclusion that “Intelligence is secret state activity to understand or influence foreign entities.” Warner’s synthesis seems to focus on strategic intelligence, but it is also logically similar to actionable intelligence (both tactical and operational) designed to influence the cognition or behavior of an adversary. 2 This synthesis captures most of the elements of actionable intelligence without being too restrictive or too open-ended, and those I asked to define the word found its elements, in one form or another, to be generally acceptable. The modified version proposed here is based on Warner’s definition and the interview and observation data collected among the law enforcement elements of the intelligence agencies. These elements confront adversaries who are not nation states or who may not be foreign entities. With this in mind, I chose to define intelligence somewhat more broadly, to include nonstate actors and domestic intelligence activities performed within the United States. Definition 2: Intelligence analysis is the application of individual and collective cognitive methods to weigh data and test hypotheses within a secret socio-cultural context. This meaning of intelligence analysis was harder to establish, and readers will find a more comprehensive review in the following chapter on developing an intelligence taxonomy. In short, the literature tends to divide intelligence analysis into “how-to” tools and techniques or cognitive processes. This is not to say that these items are mutually exclusive; many authors see the tools and techniques of analysis as cognitive processes in themselves and are reluctant to place them in different categories. Some authors tend to perceive intelligence analysis as essentially an individual cognitive process or processes. 3 My work during this study convinced me of the importance of making explicit something that is not well described in the literature, namely, the very 1 Michael Warner, “Wanted: A Definition of ‘Intelligence’,” Studies in Intelligence 46, no. 3 (2002): 15–22. 2 US Joint Forces Command, Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms. 3 The appendix lists literature devoted to each of these areas. 4
DEFINITIONS interactive, dynamic, and social nature of intelligence analysis. The interview participants were not asked to define intelligence analysis as such; rather, they were asked to describe and explain the process they used to perform analysis. The interview data were then triangulated with the direct and participant observation data collected during this study. 4 Despite the seemingly private and psychological nature of analysis as defined in the literature, what I found was a great deal of informal, yet purposeful collaboration during which individuals began to make sense of raw data by negotiating meaning among the historical record, their peers, and their supervisors. Here, from the interviews, is a typical description of the analytic process: When a request comes in from a consumer to answer some question, the first thing I do is to read up on the analytic line. [I] check the previous publications and the data. Then, I read through the question again and find where there are links to previous products. When I think I have an answer, I get together with my group and ask them what they think. We talk about it for a while and come to some consensus on its meaning and the best way to answer the consumer’s question. I write it up, pass it around here, and send it out for review. 5 The cognitive element of this basic description, “when I think I have an answer,” is a vague impression of the psychological processes that occur during analysis. The elements that are not vague are the historical, organizational, and social elements of analysis. The analyst checks the previous written products that have been given to consumers in the past. That is, the analyst looks for the accepted organizational response before generating analytic hypotheses. The organizational-historical context is critical to understanding the meaning, context, and process of intelligence analysis. There are real organizational and political consequences associated with changing official analytic findings and releasing them to consumers. The organizational consequences are associated with challenging other domain experts (including peers and supervisors). The potential political consequences arise when consumers begin to question the veracity and consistency of current or previous intelligence reporting. Accurate or not, there is a general impression within the analytic community 4 In research, triangulation refers to the application of a combination of two or more theories, data sources, methods, or investigators to develop a single construct in a study of a single phenomenon. 5 Intelligence analyst’s comment during an ethnographic interview. Such quotes are indented and italicized in this way throughout the text and will not be further identified; quotes attributable to others will be identified as such. 5
Page 2 and 3: All statements of fact, opinion, or
Page 4 and 5: The Center for the Study of Intelli
Page 6 and 7: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are literall
Page 8 and 9: CONTENTS Foreword by Gregory F. Tre
Page 10 and 11: Part IV: Notes on Methodology Chapt
Page 12 and 13: as “CNN plus secrets.” Johnston
Page 14 and 15: INTRODUCTION ment, very open and ho
Page 16 and 17: INTRODUCTION is so small and the se
Page 18 and 19: INTRODUCTION gence analysts would u
Page 20 and 21: INTRODUCTION I mention Mead not onl
Page 22 and 23: eth•nog•ra•phy\n [F ethnograp
Page 26 and 27: CHAPTER ONE that consumers of intel
Page 28 and 29: CHAPTER ONE During the interviews f
Page 30 and 31: CHAPTER TWO improvement infrastruct
Page 32 and 33: CHAPTER TWO Secrecy vs. Efficacy se
Page 34 and 35: CHAPTER TWO You know, someday someb
Page 36 and 37: CHAPTER TWO Finding: Rewards and In
Page 38 and 39: CHAPTER TWO distinction, for langua
Page 40 and 41: CHAPTER TWO that analysis is not a
Page 42 and 43: CHAPTER TWO described by participan
Page 44 and 45: CHAPTER TWO instead of academic and
Page 46 and 47: CHAPTER TWO Asked to define their p
Page 48 and 49: CHAPTER TWO satisfaction and anxiet
Page 50 and 51: PART II Ethnography of Analysis 31
Page 52 and 53: CHAPTER THREE A Taxonomy of Intelli
Page 54 and 55: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE ing inte
Page 56 and 57: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE system t
Page 58 and 59: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE cases an
Page 60 and 61: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE Comparat
Page 62 and 63: A TAXONOMY OF INTELLIGENCE has on t
Page 64 and 65: CHAPTER FOUR Testing the Intelligen
Page 66 and 67: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE Syst
Page 68 and 69: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE an e
Page 70 and 71: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE rela
Page 72 and 73: TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE ucts
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE the
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TESTING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE shou
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CHAPTER FIVE Integrating Methodolog
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS ing ches
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS good as,
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS case sti
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS cal infr
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS Can Tech
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INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS done to
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CHAPTER SIX have different historie
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CHAPTER SIX As an observer, I misse
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CHAPTER SIX In contrast, 25 percent
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CHAPTER SIX numerous domain matter
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CHAPTER SIX Quite the contrary, eac
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CHAPTER SIX a practical matter, the
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CHAPTER SEVEN Background The argume
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CHAPTER SEVEN age about 30 percent,
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CHAPTER SEVEN the procedure’s app
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CHAPTER SEVEN includes the ability
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CHAPTER SEVEN advance beyond the co
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CHAPTER EIGHT is the process of lea
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CHAPTER EIGHT often be hired on the
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CHAPTER EIGHT Interestingly, resear
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CHAPTER EIGHT Conclusion and Recomm
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CHAPTER EIGHT research fellowships,
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CHAPTER NINE As the resources avail
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CHAPTER NINE For intelligence analy
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CHAPTER NINE analyses requires sign
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CHAPTER NINE Development and Valida
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CHAPTER NINE agents or agencies of
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CHAPTER TEN Survey Methodology This
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SURVEY METHODOLOGY content and, thu
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SURVEY METHODOLOGY might merely ser
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SURVEY METHODOLOGY group includes a
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CHAPTER ELEVEN Q-Sort Methodology O
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CHAPTER TWELVE The “File-Drawer
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CHAPTER TWELVE 0.15 and for interac
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APPENDIX Jonathan Lockwood and K. L
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APPENDIX Hede Helfrich, “Human Re
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Published Sources Akin
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Camerer, Colin, and Er
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Endsley, M.R. “Desig
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Godson, Roy, ed. Compa
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Jervis, Robert. Percep
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BIBLIOGRAPHY ———, and Barbara
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Miller, George, and Ph
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BIBLIOGRAPHY ———. “The Pros
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Thompson, J. R., R. Ho
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Web resources Buros In
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sealed, world of intelligence. Rob
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