addressing uncertainty in oil and natural gas industry greenhouse

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Table F-4. Natural Gas Composition CO 2 N 2 CH 4 C 2 H 6 C 3 H 8 C 4 H 10 Fuel Mixture Mole % 12.0 2.1 80.0 4.2 1.3 0.4 Uncertainty % 4 4 4 4 4 4 MW 44.01 28.01 16.04 30.07 44.10 58.12 Mole% ×MW 5.28 0.588 12.8 1.26 0.573 0.232 100 MW mixture 20.77 lb/scf Uncertainty % 4 4 4 4 4 4 Carbon Content (wt%C) 6.94 0 46.3 4.86 2.26 0.925 ±2.69% lb/scf 61.24 (lbC/lb total) Uncertainty % 4.82 4.82 4.82 4.82 4.82 4.82 ±3.71% (lbC/lb total) For simplicity, we assume a 4% uncertainty on the mole% for all of the natural gas components. In reality, the uncertainty of the gas composition should be determined through multiple samples, as shown in Section 4. Uncertainty Estimate of the Fuel Mixture Mole %: The relative uncertainty of the mole% × MW for the individual components is the same as the relative uncertainty for the mole%, since multiplication by a constant does not change the relative uncertainty. The uncertainty for the sum of the mole% × MW is calculated by applying Equation 4-4 and using the absolute uncertainties. ∑ U ( abs) = U( abs) ∑(mole%×MW) 2 mole%×MW 2 2 2 (0.04× 5.28) + (0.04× 0.588) + (0.04× 12.8) U ( abs) = = 0.558 ∑ (mole%×MW) 2 2 2 + (0.04× 1.26) + (0.04× 0.573) + (0.04× 0.232) 0.558 Urel ( ) = × 100% =± 2.69% lb/scf ∑(mole%×MW) 20.77 ( ) The uncertainty for the wt% C for the individual components is calculated by applying Equation 4-6 and using the relative uncertainties. wt%C 2 2 2 2 mole% ∑ (Mole%×MW) ( ) Urel ( ) = U( rel) +U( rel) = 4 + 2.69 =± 4.82% wt% C The uncertainty for the sum of the wt%C is calculated by applying Equation 4-4 and using the absolute uncertainties. Pilot Version, September 2009 F-4
∑ 2 U ( abs) = U( abs) ∑(Wt%C) Wt%C 2 2 2 (0.0482× 6.94) + (0.0482× 0) + (0.0482× 46.3) U ( abs) = = 2.27 ∑ (Wt%C) 2 2 2 + (0.0482× 4.86) + (0.0482× 2.26) + (0.0482× 0.925) 2.27 Urel ( ) = × 100% =± 3.71% ( lb C/lb total ∑ ) (Mole%×MW) 61.24 Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 Emissions from Boilers and Heaters/Reboilers: Carbon dioxide emissions can then be calculated using mass balance approach. Emissions are calculated below, by equipment type. Boilers and Heaters: E CO2 6 93.2× 10 scf fuel lbmole 20.77 lb fuel 0.6124 lb C lbmole C = × × × × yr 379.3 scf fuel lbmole fuel lb fuel 12.01 lb C lbmole CO 44.01 lb CO tonne 5,200 tonnes CO / yr 2 2 × × × = lbmole C lbmole CO2 2204.62 lb As shown earlier, 93.2×10 6 scf/yr has an uncertainty of ±7.49%. The uncertainty in the carbon content of the fuel mixture is 3.71% and the uncertainty of the MW of the mixture is 2.69%. The uncertainty in the CO 2 emissions is calculated by applying Equation 4-6 and using the relative uncertainty values. 2 U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) Urel Emissions 2 2 2 Boilers and Heaters Gas Usage Carbon Content MW mix 2 2 2 ( ) Emissions = 7.49 + 3.71 + 2.69 =± 8.78% (tonnes CO 2 / yr) Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 Emissions from Turbines: The CO 2 emissions from Turbines are: E CO 2 6 250× 10 scf fuel lbmole 20.77 lb fuel 0.6124 lb C lbmole C = × × × × yr 379.3 scf fuel lbmole fuel lb fuel 12.01 lb C lbmole CO 44.01 lb CO tonne lbmole C lbmole CO 2204.62 lb 2 2 × × × = 2 13,900 tonnes CO / yr The uncertainty for the activity factor 250×10 6 scf fuel/yr is 15%. Similarly, the uncertainty in the carbon content of the fuel mixture is 3.71% and the uncertainty of the MW of the mixture is 2.67%. The uncertainty in the CO 2 emissions is calculated by applying Equation 4-6 and using the relative uncertainty values. 2 U( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) 2 2 2 Emissions AF Carbon Content MW mix U( rel ) = 15 +3.71 +2.67 = ± 15.7% (tonnes CO /yr) 2 2 2 Emissions 2 Pilot Version, September 2009 F-5
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Prepared by the LEVON Group, LLC an
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Table of Contents SECTION Page FORE
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List of Tables SECTION Page 2-1 Ove
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FOREWORD The global oil and natural
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DOCUMENT AT A GLANCE This document
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1.0 INTRODUCTION Policymakers use e
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Clim
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2.0 SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY There ar
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Table 2-1. Overview of Methods Used
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the uncertainty associated with cur
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d. Data processing uncertainty Typi
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d. Material Balance For some emissi
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3.0 OVERVIEW OF MEASUREMENT PRACTIC
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3.1 Flow Measurement Practices Cont
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All these factors should be assesse
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Table 3-1. Example of FFMS Combined
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3.2 Uncertainties of Flow Measureme
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Table 3-3. Compilation of Specifica
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EXHIBIT 3-3: FACTORS TO CONSIDER WH
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3.3.2 Quantifying Sampling Precisio
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Table 3-4. Summary of Selected Carb
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3.5 Heat Content Determination The
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3.5.2 Computational Methods Heating
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using standard methods, non-standar
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0.6 0.4 0.2 Error 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6
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s ± t × (Equation 4-1) n where s
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4.2.1 Propagation Equations There a
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For two terms that might be correla
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EXHIBIT 4-1: Uncertainty Example fo
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Further guidance for assigning unce
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4.4 Quantifying Measurement Uncerta
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Are the data based on a single poin
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Two methods are compared. The first
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. EXHIBIT 4-6: Uncertainty Example
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Table 4-13 shows the uncertainty in
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Table 4-13. Comparison of Annual Em
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• The evolution of activity and e
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These guidelines concentrate solely
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(Reprinted from the API Compendium)
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Table 5-2. Onshore Oil Field (High
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associated with them are assigned b
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Table 5-4. Onshore Oil Field (High
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5.2.4 Propagating Assymetric Uncert
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U( rel) = U( rel) + U( rel) + U( re
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Coke burn rate approach (Equation 5
Page 99 and 100: Wt% C ∑ lbmole x lbmole C 12 lb C
Page 101 and 102: The CO 2 emissions are calculated u
Page 103 and 104: GHG Emissions, tonnes/yr 60,000 50,
Page 105 and 106: vast majority of the uncertainty fo
Page 107 and 108: 6.0 REFERENCES AGA, 2008, Greenhous
Page 109 and 110: The Alberta Energy and Utilities Bo
Page 111 and 112: Appendix A GLOSSARY OF STATISTICAL
Page 117 and 118: APPENDIX B LIST OF INDUSTRY MEASURE
Page 119 and 120: Chapter 2.8B Establishment of the L
Page 121 and 122: Chapter 11.5.3 Chapter 12.1.1 Chapt
Page 123 and 124: Chapter 19.4 Chapter 20.1 RP 85 RP
Page 125 and 126: ISO 8222:2002 ISO 8697:1999 ISO 902
Page 127 and 128: ISO 7194:2008 Measurement of fluid
Page 129 and 130: ASTM D4292 ASTM D4892 ASTM D5002 AS
Page 131 and 132: APPENDIX C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 133 and 134: Appendix C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 135 and 136: Appendix D SELECT MEASUREMENT METHO
Page 137 and 138: c. ASTM UOP539-97, Refinery Gas Ana
Page 139 and 140: interference between known componen
Page 141 and 142: maintained over the room temperatur
Page 143 and 144: APPENDIX E UNITS CONVERSION
Page 145 and 146: − Gasoline density (average) = 0.
Page 147 and 148: Appendix F UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION D
Page 149: The uncertainty for the heaters/reb
Page 153 and 154: Combining the fuel usage for the tw
Page 155 and 156: Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
Page 157 and 158: U ( abs) = ( U ( abs) + U ( abs) +
Page 159 and 160: E E CO2e 219 tonne CO ⎛ 2 0.0108
Page 161 and 162: E CO 2 6 500× 10 scf gas lbmole ga
Page 163 and 164: • Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
Page 165 and 166: Upper: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs)
Page 167 and 168: default CH 4 content is 5.53% from
Page 169 and 170: Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
Page 171 and 172: ( ) Urel ( ) = Urel ( ) = Urel ( )
Page 173 and 174: Uncertainty Estimate for CH 4 and C
Page 175 and 176: specific mole % for CH 4 and CO 2 i
Page 177 and 178: E CO2 0.07239 tonne CH 4 tonne mole
Page 179 and 180: U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel
Page 181 and 182: Table F-14. Fugitive Emission and U
Page 183 and 184: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) +U( ab
Page 185 and 186: Table F-15. Onshore Oil Field (High
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