addressing uncertainty in oil and natural gas industry greenhouse

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Compendium. The uncertainty of the activity factor is calculated by applying Equation 4-6 and using the relative uncertainties. Upper: Urel ( ) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) emissions 2 +U( rel) Default mole% 2 2 2 2 2 Number of Units Daily Volume Days of Operation EF Facility mole% ( ) Urel ( ) = 0 + 5 + 2 + 119 + 4 + 5.53 =+ 119% tonnes CH /yr Lower: Urel ( ) 2 2 2 2 2 2 emissions 4 = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) emissions 2 +U( rel) Default mole% 2 2 2 2 2 Number of Units Daily Volume Days of Operation EF Facility mole% 2 2 2 2 2 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Urel ( ) = 0 + − 5 + − 2 + − 100 + − 4 + − 5.53 =−100% tonnes CH /yr 2 emissions 4 Uncertainty Estimate for CO 2 Emissions from Acid Gas Removal: CO 2 emissions are calculated based on a material balance approach. E ⎡ ⎛ × ×12 mole% CO ⎞ ⎛ - ×0.5 mole% CO ⎞ ⎣ lbmole lb tonne × × 44 × 379.3 scf lbmole 2204.62 lb 6 6 30 10 scf 343 day 8,997×10 scf CO = ⎢ 2 ⎜ × 2⎟ ⎜ 2⎟ ⎢ ⎝day processed yr ⎠ yr sour ⎝ ⎠sweet ⎤ ⎥ ⎥⎦ CO2 [ ] E = 1,234.8 − 44.985 × 10 E = 62,620 tonneCO /yr CO2 2 6 scf mole% CO2 lbmole 44.01 lb tonne × × × yr 379.3 scf lbmole 2204.62 lb To calculate the uncertainty for the CO 2 emissions, first calculate the uncertainty of the sour and sweet gas components and then aggregate those uncertainties. For the uncertainty in the sour gas flow rate we assume there is no uncertainty in the number of units, the uncertainty in the daily volume of gas processed is 5%, and the uncertainty in the days of operation is 2% based on expert judgment. The uncertainty in the sweet gas flow rate scf/yr is 5% based on expert judgment. The uncertainty in the CO 2 concentrations for both the sour and sweet gases are assumed to be 4%. The uncertainties of the first and second terms of the emissions equation are calculated by applying Equation 4-6 and using the relative uncertainty values. U ( rel) = U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) 2 2 2 2 1 Sour Number of Units Daily Volume Days of Operation %Mole ( ) Urel ( ) = 0 + 5 + 2 + 4 =± 6.71% scf mole% CO /yr 2 2 2 2 Sour 2 Pilot Version, September 2009 F-24
( ) Urel ( ) = Urel ( ) = Urel ( ) + Urel ( ) = 5 + 4 =± 6.40% scf mole% CO /yr 2 2 2 2 2 Sweet Flow % Mole 2 The aggregated uncertainty of the emissions is then calculated by applying Equation 4-4 and using the absolute uncertainty values. U ( abs) − U ( abs) = U ( abs) + U ( abs) 2 2 1 2 1 2 U ( abs) − U ( abs) = (0.0671× 1,234.8× 10 ) + (0.0640× 44.985× 10 ) = 82.9×10 scf CO 6 2 6 2 6 1 2 2 × Urel ( ) = =± 6.97% scf CO 1,189.8 10 scf CO 6 82.9 10 scf CO2 6 × 2 ( ) Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emissions from Acid Gas Removal: 2 E CO e 2 2 ⎛190 tonne CH4 21 tonne CO2e ⎞ = 62,600 tonne CO /yr + ⎜ × ⎟ ⎝ yr tonne CH4 ⎠ E CO e 2 2 = 66,700 tonne CO e/yr Upper: U ( abs) = ( U ( abs) + U ( abs) U abs 2 2 ECO 2e ECO E 2 CH4 2 2 ( ) E = (0.0697× 62,600) + (1.19× 21× 190) = 6,510 tonnes CO2e/yr CO2e Urel 6,510 tonnes CO e/yr ( ) 2 ( ) E = 100% × =+ 9.77% tonnes CO2e/yr CO2e 66,700 tonnes CO2e/yr U( abs) = U ( abs) + U ( abs) 2 2 ECO 2e ECO E 2 CH4 Lower: abs ( ) ( ) ECO 2e 2 2 U( ) = − 0.0697× 62,600 + − 1.00× 21× 190 = 5,960 tonnes CO e/yr rel 5,960 tonnes CO e/yr ( ) 2 U( ) E = 100% × =−8.94% tonnes CO2e/yr CO2 e 66,700 tonnes CO2e/yr F.9 Uncertainty in Vented Sources – Pneumatics Devices and Chemical Injection Pumps Table F-11 summarizes the operating parameters for acid gas removal at the example facility. Table F-11. Operating Parameters for Pneumatic Devices and Chemical Injection Pumps Source Fuel Annual Activity Factor (all units combined) Uncertainty (±%) a Pneumatic devices Produced Gas 64 pneumatic devices ±5% devices Chemical injection pumps (CIPs) Produced Gas 67 CIPs ±5% pumps 2 Pilot Version, September 2009 F-25
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Prepared by the LEVON Group, LLC an
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Table of Contents SECTION Page FORE
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List of Tables SECTION Page 2-1 Ove
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FOREWORD The global oil and natural
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DOCUMENT AT A GLANCE This document
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1.0 INTRODUCTION Policymakers use e
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Clim
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2.0 SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY There ar
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Table 2-1. Overview of Methods Used
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the uncertainty associated with cur
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d. Data processing uncertainty Typi
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d. Material Balance For some emissi
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3.0 OVERVIEW OF MEASUREMENT PRACTIC
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3.1 Flow Measurement Practices Cont
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All these factors should be assesse
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Table 3-1. Example of FFMS Combined
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3.2 Uncertainties of Flow Measureme
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Table 3-3. Compilation of Specifica
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EXHIBIT 3-3: FACTORS TO CONSIDER WH
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3.3.2 Quantifying Sampling Precisio
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Table 3-4. Summary of Selected Carb
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3.5 Heat Content Determination The
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3.5.2 Computational Methods Heating
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using standard methods, non-standar
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0.6 0.4 0.2 Error 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6
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s ± t × (Equation 4-1) n where s
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4.2.1 Propagation Equations There a
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For two terms that might be correla
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EXHIBIT 4-1: Uncertainty Example fo
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Further guidance for assigning unce
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4.4 Quantifying Measurement Uncerta
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Are the data based on a single poin
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Two methods are compared. The first
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. EXHIBIT 4-6: Uncertainty Example
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Table 4-13 shows the uncertainty in
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Table 4-13. Comparison of Annual Em
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• The evolution of activity and e
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These guidelines concentrate solely
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(Reprinted from the API Compendium)
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Table 5-2. Onshore Oil Field (High
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associated with them are assigned b
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Table 5-4. Onshore Oil Field (High
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5.2.4 Propagating Assymetric Uncert
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U( rel) = U( rel) + U( rel) + U( re
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Coke burn rate approach (Equation 5
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Wt% C ∑ lbmole x lbmole C 12 lb C
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The CO 2 emissions are calculated u
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GHG Emissions, tonnes/yr 60,000 50,
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vast majority of the uncertainty fo
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6.0 REFERENCES AGA, 2008, Greenhous
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The Alberta Energy and Utilities Bo
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Appendix A GLOSSARY OF STATISTICAL
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APPENDIX B LIST OF INDUSTRY MEASURE
Page 119 and 120: Chapter 2.8B Establishment of the L
Page 121 and 122: Chapter 11.5.3 Chapter 12.1.1 Chapt
Page 123 and 124: Chapter 19.4 Chapter 20.1 RP 85 RP
Page 125 and 126: ISO 8222:2002 ISO 8697:1999 ISO 902
Page 127 and 128: ISO 7194:2008 Measurement of fluid
Page 129 and 130: ASTM D4292 ASTM D4892 ASTM D5002 AS
Page 131 and 132: APPENDIX C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 133 and 134: Appendix C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 135 and 136: Appendix D SELECT MEASUREMENT METHO
Page 137 and 138: c. ASTM UOP539-97, Refinery Gas Ana
Page 139 and 140: interference between known componen
Page 141 and 142: maintained over the room temperatur
Page 143 and 144: APPENDIX E UNITS CONVERSION
Page 145 and 146: − Gasoline density (average) = 0.
Page 147 and 148: Appendix F UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION D
Page 149 and 150: The uncertainty for the heaters/reb
Page 151 and 152: ∑ 2 U ( abs) = U( abs) ∑(Wt%C)
Page 153 and 154: Combining the fuel usage for the tw
Page 155 and 156: Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
Page 157 and 158: U ( abs) = ( U ( abs) + U ( abs) +
Page 159 and 160: E E CO2e 219 tonne CO ⎛ 2 0.0108
Page 161 and 162: E CO 2 6 500× 10 scf gas lbmole ga
Page 163 and 164: • Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
Page 165 and 166: Upper: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs)
Page 167 and 168: default CH 4 content is 5.53% from
Page 169: Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
Page 173 and 174: Uncertainty Estimate for CH 4 and C
Page 175 and 176: specific mole % for CH 4 and CO 2 i
Page 177 and 178: E CO2 0.07239 tonne CH 4 tonne mole
Page 179 and 180: U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel
Page 181 and 182: Table F-14. Fugitive Emission and U
Page 183 and 184: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) +U( ab
Page 185 and 186: Table F-15. Onshore Oil Field (High
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