addressing uncertainty in oil and natural gas industry greenhouse

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F.2 Uncertainty in Diesel Combustion Devices – CO 2 Emissions The diesel firing rate is the sum of the activity factors for the generators and pumps as shown in Table F-5. Table F-5. Operating Parameters for Diesel Engines Source Emergency generator IC engine Fire water pump IC engine Fuel No. of Units Unit Uncertainty Capacity (±%) a (per unit) Average Operation Uncertainty (per unit (±%) a per year) Diesel 1 ±0% units 1800 hp ±5% hr 200 hr/yr Diesel 1 ±0% units 460 hp ±5% hr 24 hr/yr; 87% load Annual Activity Factor (all Uncertainty units (±%) a combined) ±10% (hr/yr) ±10% (hr/yr); ±20% (load) 2,912 ×10 6 Btu/yr 77.7 ×10 6 Btu/yr Uncertainty (±%) a ±12.3% Btu/yr ±13.2% Btu/yr Uncertainty Estimate of Diesel Activity Data: Because the diesel emission factor is provided on a heat input basis, the equipment ratings are converted to volume of fuel consumed (V) on a heat input basis. ⎛ 1,800 hp 8,089 Btu 200 hr ⎞ ⎛ 460 hp 8,089 Btu 24 hr ⎞ V = ⎜1 Unit × × × ⎟+ ⎜1 Unit × × 0.87 × × ⎟ ⎝ unit hp-hr yr ⎠ ⎝ unit hp-hr yr ⎠ 6 6 V = (2,912+7.77)× 10 =2989.7×10 Btu/yr We assume there is no uncertainty in the number of units, which here is the count of diesel engines. The uncertainty in the unit capacity is 5%, the uncertainty in the energy efficiency of the engine is 5%, and the uncertainty in the average hours of operation is 10% based on expert judgment. The uncertainty in the CO 2 emissions is calculated by applying Equation 4-6 and using the relative uncertainty values. U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) 2 2 2 2 Activity Factor Number Of Units Unity Capacity Efficiency Average Operations Urel = + + + =± ( ) 2 2 2 2 ( ) ActivityFactor 0 5 5 10 12.3% Btu/yr The uncertainty for pumps includes one additional term: the uncertainty in the percent load is 20%, U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) Urel ( ) = +U( ) ActivityFactor 2 rel Average Operations 2 2 2 2 Number Of Units Unity Capacity Efficiency Percent Load ( ) 2 2 2 2 2 ( ) ActivityFactor 0 5 5 20 10 23.5% Btu/yr Urel = + + + + =± Pilot Version, September 2009 F-6
Combining the fuel usage for the two diesel fired equipment, the total uncertainty in the diesel firing rate is calculated by applying Equation 4-4 and using the absolute uncertainty values. U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) 2 2 Diesal Firing Rate Generator Pump U abs = × × + × × = × Btu yr 6 2 6 2 6 ( ) Diesal Firing Rate (0.123 2912 10 ) (0.235 77.7 10 ) 356.85 10 / 6 356.85×10 Btu/yr 6 2989.7×10 Btu/yr ( ) Urel ( ) = 100%× = ± 11.9% Btu/yr Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 Emissions from Diesel Combustion: E 2,989.7× 10 Btu year 0.0732 tonnes CO 10 Btu 6 2 CO = × = 2 6 2 219 tonnes CO / yr The uncertainty in the emissions factor is determined by engineering judgment to be 10%. The total uncertainty for the CO 2 emissions is then is calculated by applying Equation 4-6 and using the relative uncertainty values. 2 ( ) U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel ) = 11.9 + 10.0 =± 15.6% tonnes CO /yr 2 2 2 2 CO AF EF 2 F.3 Uncertainty in Stationary Combustion Devices – CH 4 , N 2 O, and CO 2 e Emissions In this hypothetical example, CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from combustion are calculated using the fuel-based emission factors presented in the API Compendium. The calculations for CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from combustion are reprinted directly from the API Compendium. Some uncertainty values were assigned as follows: • Fuel Consumption for Boilers = ±15% (assigned by expert judgment). • Heating Value of Gas Combusted = ±4% (measured independent of gas composition; assigned by expert judgment here). • Gas Composition measurement = ±4% (determined by analysis of repeat samples using techniques from Section 4; assigned by expert judgment here). • The uncertainty in the emissions factor for N 2 O is determined by engineering judgment to be +150%,–100%. The uncertainty in the emissions factor for methane is 25% based on expert judgment. Uncertainty Estimate of CH 4 and N 2 O Emissions from Boilers and Heater/Reboilers: Natural gas emission factors for CH 4 and N 2 O are based on the energy consumed by the equipment. This differs from the CO 2 emission estimates above, which were based on the volume of natural gas consumed. So, the fuel usage information from Table F-2 must first be converted to an energy input basis. Pilot Version, September 2009 F-7
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Prepared by the LEVON Group, LLC an
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Table of Contents SECTION Page FORE
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List of Tables SECTION Page 2-1 Ove
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FOREWORD The global oil and natural
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DOCUMENT AT A GLANCE This document
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1.0 INTRODUCTION Policymakers use e
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Clim
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2.0 SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY There ar
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Table 2-1. Overview of Methods Used
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the uncertainty associated with cur
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d. Data processing uncertainty Typi
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d. Material Balance For some emissi
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3.0 OVERVIEW OF MEASUREMENT PRACTIC
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3.1 Flow Measurement Practices Cont
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All these factors should be assesse
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Table 3-1. Example of FFMS Combined
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3.2 Uncertainties of Flow Measureme
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Table 3-3. Compilation of Specifica
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EXHIBIT 3-3: FACTORS TO CONSIDER WH
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3.3.2 Quantifying Sampling Precisio
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Table 3-4. Summary of Selected Carb
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3.5 Heat Content Determination The
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3.5.2 Computational Methods Heating
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using standard methods, non-standar
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0.6 0.4 0.2 Error 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6
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s ± t × (Equation 4-1) n where s
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4.2.1 Propagation Equations There a
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For two terms that might be correla
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EXHIBIT 4-1: Uncertainty Example fo
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Further guidance for assigning unce
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4.4 Quantifying Measurement Uncerta
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Are the data based on a single poin
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Two methods are compared. The first
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. EXHIBIT 4-6: Uncertainty Example
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Table 4-13 shows the uncertainty in
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Table 4-13. Comparison of Annual Em
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• The evolution of activity and e
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These guidelines concentrate solely
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(Reprinted from the API Compendium)
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Table 5-2. Onshore Oil Field (High
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associated with them are assigned b
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Table 5-4. Onshore Oil Field (High
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5.2.4 Propagating Assymetric Uncert
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U( rel) = U( rel) + U( rel) + U( re
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Coke burn rate approach (Equation 5
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Wt% C ∑ lbmole x lbmole C 12 lb C
Page 101 and 102: The CO 2 emissions are calculated u
Page 103 and 104: GHG Emissions, tonnes/yr 60,000 50,
Page 105 and 106: vast majority of the uncertainty fo
Page 107 and 108: 6.0 REFERENCES AGA, 2008, Greenhous
Page 109 and 110: The Alberta Energy and Utilities Bo
Page 111 and 112: Appendix A GLOSSARY OF STATISTICAL
Page 117 and 118: APPENDIX B LIST OF INDUSTRY MEASURE
Page 119 and 120: Chapter 2.8B Establishment of the L
Page 121 and 122: Chapter 11.5.3 Chapter 12.1.1 Chapt
Page 123 and 124: Chapter 19.4 Chapter 20.1 RP 85 RP
Page 125 and 126: ISO 8222:2002 ISO 8697:1999 ISO 902
Page 127 and 128: ISO 7194:2008 Measurement of fluid
Page 129 and 130: ASTM D4292 ASTM D4892 ASTM D5002 AS
Page 131 and 132: APPENDIX C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 133 and 134: Appendix C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 135 and 136: Appendix D SELECT MEASUREMENT METHO
Page 137 and 138: c. ASTM UOP539-97, Refinery Gas Ana
Page 139 and 140: interference between known componen
Page 141 and 142: maintained over the room temperatur
Page 143 and 144: APPENDIX E UNITS CONVERSION
Page 145 and 146: − Gasoline density (average) = 0.
Page 147 and 148: Appendix F UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION D
Page 149 and 150: The uncertainty for the heaters/reb
Page 151: ∑ 2 U ( abs) = U( abs) ∑(Wt%C)
Page 155 and 156: Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
Page 157 and 158: U ( abs) = ( U ( abs) + U ( abs) +
Page 159 and 160: E E CO2e 219 tonne CO ⎛ 2 0.0108
Page 161 and 162: E CO 2 6 500× 10 scf gas lbmole ga
Page 163 and 164: • Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
Page 165 and 166: Upper: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs)
Page 167 and 168: default CH 4 content is 5.53% from
Page 169 and 170: Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
Page 171 and 172: ( ) Urel ( ) = Urel ( ) = Urel ( )
Page 173 and 174: Uncertainty Estimate for CH 4 and C
Page 175 and 176: specific mole % for CH 4 and CO 2 i
Page 177 and 178: E CO2 0.07239 tonne CH 4 tonne mole
Page 179 and 180: U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel
Page 181 and 182: Table F-14. Fugitive Emission and U
Page 183 and 184: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) +U( ab
Page 185 and 186: Table F-15. Onshore Oil Field (High
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