addressing uncertainty in oil and natural gas industry greenhouse

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E E CH CH 4 4 -4 40,000 mi gal 4.5× 10 tonne CH4 Mgal = 5 trucks× × × × yr-truck 14 mi Mgal 1000 gal = 0.00643 tonnes CH 4/yr Equation 4-6 is applied using the relative uncertainty values. Urel ( ) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) 2 2 2 CH Emissions Vehicle Fuel Economy EF 4 4 ( ) Urel ( ) = 0 + 5 + 150 =+ 151%, −100% tonnes CH /yr 2 2 2 CH Emissions 4 Uncertainty Estimate for N 2 O Emissions from Fleet: Nitrous oxide emissions are then calculated by applying the emission factor for vehicles. E E NO 2 NO 2 -4 40,000 mi gal 6.1× 10 tonne CH4 Mgal = 5 trucks× × × × yr-truck 14 mi Mgal 1000 gal = 0.00871 tonnes N2O/yr Equation 4-6 is applied using the relative uncertainty values. U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) 2 2 2 N OEmissions Vehicle Fuel Economy EF 2 2 ( ) Urel ( ) = 0 + 5 + 150 =+ 151%, −100% tonnes N O/yr 2 2 2 N OEmissions 2 Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emissions from Fleet: The final step is to convert the emissions of CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O to a CO 2 e. Equation 4-4 is applied using absolute uncertainty values. Both CH 4 and N 2 O uncertainty estimates are asymmetrical, so both upper and lower bound uncertainties are calculated for the CO 2 e emissions. 127 tonne CO ⎛ 2 0.00643 tonne CH4 21 tonne CO2e ⎞ E CO2e = + ⎜ × ⎟ yr ⎝ yr tonne CH4 ⎠ ⎛ + ⎜ × ⎝ yr 0.00871 tonne N2O 310 tonne CO2e ⎟ =129 tonne CO 2 e/yr 2 tonne N O ⎞ ⎠ Pilot Version, September 2009 F-18
Upper: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) +U( abs) 2 2 2 ECO2e ECO E 2 CH E 4 N2O U ( abs) = (0.194× 127) + (1.51× 21× 0.00643) + (1.51× 310× 0.00871) = 24.8 tonnes CO e/yr Urel 2 2 2 ECO2e 2 24.8 tonnes CO e/yr = × =+ ( Oe/yr) 2 ( ) E 100% 19.2% tonnes C CO2e 129 tonnes CO2e/yr Lower: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) +U( abs) 2 2 2 ECO2e ECO E 2 CH E 4 N2O U ( abs) = ( − 0.194× 127) + ( − 1.00× 21× 0.00643) + ( − 1.00× 310× 0.00871) = 24.7 tonnes CO e/yr 2 2 2 ECO2e 2 24.7 tonnes CO e/yr 2 ( ) E 100% 19.1% tonne CO2e 129 tonnes CO2e/yr Urel = × =− ( s CO e/yr ) F.6 Uncertainty in Vented Sources – Gas Dehydration 2 2 Table F-8 provides the operating parameters for gas dehydration at the example facility. Table F-8. Operating Parameters for Dehydration Source Dehydration vents (also has Kimray pump emissions) Fuel Produced Gas No. of Units Unit Uncertainty Capacity (±%) a (per unit) 1 ±0% units 30×10 6 scf/day Average Operation Uncertainty (per unit (±%) a per year) ±5% scf/day 343 days/yr Annual Activity Factor (all Uncertainty units (±%) a combined) ±2% days/yr 10,290×10 6 scf/yr Uncertainty (±%) a ±5.39% scf/yr Uncertainty Estimate for CH 4 Emissions from Dehydration: Methane emissions from the gas dehydrator vents and for Kimray pumps are estimated using the production segment emission factors provided in the API Compendium. For both of these sources, emissions are based on the quantity of gas processed. Carbon dioxide emissions are estimated using the facility CO 2 and default CH 4 concentrations in the gas. ( ) ( ) EF = EF + EF EF EF CH4 Dehydrator vents Kimray pumps ⎛0.0052859 tonnes CH ⎞ ⎛0.01903 tonnes CH ⎞ = ⎜ ⎟+ ⎜ ⎟ ⎝ 10 scf ⎠ ⎝ 10 scf ⎠ 4 4 CH4 6 6 6 CH = 0.024326 tonnes CH 4 4 /10 scf For the uncertainty estimate, the emission factors should be combined to eliminate the correlation associated with the common activity data. The uncertainty of the emissions factor is calculated by applying Pilot Version, September 2009 F-19
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Prepared by the LEVON Group, LLC an
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Table of Contents SECTION Page FORE
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List of Tables SECTION Page 2-1 Ove
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FOREWORD The global oil and natural
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DOCUMENT AT A GLANCE This document
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1.0 INTRODUCTION Policymakers use e
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Clim
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2.0 SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY There ar
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Table 2-1. Overview of Methods Used
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the uncertainty associated with cur
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d. Data processing uncertainty Typi
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d. Material Balance For some emissi
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3.0 OVERVIEW OF MEASUREMENT PRACTIC
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3.1 Flow Measurement Practices Cont
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All these factors should be assesse
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Table 3-1. Example of FFMS Combined
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3.2 Uncertainties of Flow Measureme
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Table 3-3. Compilation of Specifica
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EXHIBIT 3-3: FACTORS TO CONSIDER WH
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3.3.2 Quantifying Sampling Precisio
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Table 3-4. Summary of Selected Carb
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3.5 Heat Content Determination The
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3.5.2 Computational Methods Heating
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using standard methods, non-standar
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0.6 0.4 0.2 Error 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6
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s ± t × (Equation 4-1) n where s
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4.2.1 Propagation Equations There a
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For two terms that might be correla
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EXHIBIT 4-1: Uncertainty Example fo
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Further guidance for assigning unce
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4.4 Quantifying Measurement Uncerta
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Are the data based on a single poin
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Two methods are compared. The first
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. EXHIBIT 4-6: Uncertainty Example
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Table 4-13 shows the uncertainty in
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Table 4-13. Comparison of Annual Em
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• The evolution of activity and e
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These guidelines concentrate solely
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(Reprinted from the API Compendium)
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Table 5-2. Onshore Oil Field (High
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associated with them are assigned b
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Table 5-4. Onshore Oil Field (High
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5.2.4 Propagating Assymetric Uncert
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U( rel) = U( rel) + U( rel) + U( re
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Coke burn rate approach (Equation 5
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Wt% C ∑ lbmole x lbmole C 12 lb C
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The CO 2 emissions are calculated u
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GHG Emissions, tonnes/yr 60,000 50,
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vast majority of the uncertainty fo
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6.0 REFERENCES AGA, 2008, Greenhous
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The Alberta Energy and Utilities Bo
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Appendix A GLOSSARY OF STATISTICAL
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Page 115 and 116: Appendix A GLOSSARY OF STATISTICAL
Page 117 and 118: APPENDIX B LIST OF INDUSTRY MEASURE
Page 119 and 120: Chapter 2.8B Establishment of the L
Page 121 and 122: Chapter 11.5.3 Chapter 12.1.1 Chapt
Page 123 and 124: Chapter 19.4 Chapter 20.1 RP 85 RP
Page 125 and 126: ISO 8222:2002 ISO 8697:1999 ISO 902
Page 127 and 128: ISO 7194:2008 Measurement of fluid
Page 129 and 130: ASTM D4292 ASTM D4892 ASTM D5002 AS
Page 131 and 132: APPENDIX C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 133 and 134: Appendix C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 135 and 136: Appendix D SELECT MEASUREMENT METHO
Page 137 and 138: c. ASTM UOP539-97, Refinery Gas Ana
Page 139 and 140: interference between known componen
Page 141 and 142: maintained over the room temperatur
Page 143 and 144: APPENDIX E UNITS CONVERSION
Page 145 and 146: − Gasoline density (average) = 0.
Page 147 and 148: Appendix F UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION D
Page 149 and 150: The uncertainty for the heaters/reb
Page 151 and 152: ∑ 2 U ( abs) = U( abs) ∑(Wt%C)
Page 153 and 154: Combining the fuel usage for the tw
Page 155 and 156: Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
Page 157 and 158: U ( abs) = ( U ( abs) + U ( abs) +
Page 159 and 160: E E CO2e 219 tonne CO ⎛ 2 0.0108
Page 161 and 162: E CO 2 6 500× 10 scf gas lbmole ga
Page 163: • Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
Page 167 and 168: default CH 4 content is 5.53% from
Page 169 and 170: Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
Page 171 and 172: ( ) Urel ( ) = Urel ( ) = Urel ( )
Page 173 and 174: Uncertainty Estimate for CH 4 and C
Page 175 and 176: specific mole % for CH 4 and CO 2 i
Page 177 and 178: E CO2 0.07239 tonne CH 4 tonne mole
Page 179 and 180: U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel
Page 181 and 182: Table F-14. Fugitive Emission and U
Page 183 and 184: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) +U( ab
Page 185 and 186: Table F-15. Onshore Oil Field (High
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