addressing uncertainty in oil and natural gas industry greenhouse

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6 -6 232,000× 10 Btu 3.9× 10 tonne CH 4 E CH = × = 0.905 tonnes CH 4 6 4 /yr yr 10 Btu 6 -6 232,000× 10 Btu 1.4× 10 tonne N2O E NO= × = 0.325 tonnes N 2 6 2O/yr yr 10 Btu The uncertainty for the turbines’ activity factor is 15%. The uncertainty in the heating values is 5% based on expert judgment. The uncertainty in the CH 4 emissions factor is determined by engineering judgment to be 25%, and +150%, -100% for the N 2 O emission factor. The uncertainty of the emissions is calculated by applying Equation 4-6 and using the relative uncertainty values. Because it is not possible to have negative emissions, the lower bound uncertainty will be truncated at zero. As a result, the lower and upper bound uncertainties are estimated separately. U ( rel) = U ( rel) + U ( rel) + U ( rel) 2 2 2 emissions AF HeatingValue EF ( ) For CH : Urel ( ) = 15 + 4 + 25 =± 29.4% tonnes CH /yr 2 2 2 4 4 ( ) For N O: Urel ( ) = 15 + 4 + 150 =+ 151%, −100% tonnes N O/yr 2 2 2 2 2 Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emissions from Turbines: The final step is to convert the emissions of CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O to a CO 2 e basis. Equation 4-4 is applied using absolute uncertainty values. Because the N 2 O uncertainty estimate is asymmetrical, separate upper and lower bound uncertainties are calculated for the CO 2 e emissions. 13,900 tonneCO ⎛ 2 0.905 tonneCH4 21 tonne CO2e ⎞ E CO2e = + ⎜ × ⎟ yr ⎝ yr tonneCH4 ⎠ ⎛0.325 tonneN O 310 tonne CO e ⎞ = ⎝ ⎠ 2 2 + ⎜ × ⎟ 14,100 tonne CO2e/yr yr tonneN2O U ( abs) = ( U ( abs) + U ( abs) + U ( abs) 2 2 2 ECO 2e ECO E 2 CH E 4 N2O U ( abs) E = (0.157× 13,900) + (0.294× 21× 0.905) + (1.51× 310× 0.325) CO2e Upper: U ( abs) = 2,190 tonnes CO e/yr E CO2e ( ) 100% 2 ECO 2e 14,100 tonnes CO e/y 2 Urel 2 2 2 2 2,190 tonnes CO e/yr =+15.6% tonnes CO2e/yr r = × ( ) Pilot Version, September 2009 F-10
U ( abs) = ( U ( abs) + U ( abs) + U ( abs) 2 2 2 ECO 2e ECO E 2 CH E 4 N2O U ( abs) E = ( − 0.157× 13,900) + ( − 0.294× 21× 0.905) + ( − 1.00× 310× 0.325) CO2e Lower: U ( abs) = 2,190 tonnes CO e/yr Urel E CO2e ( ) 100% 2 ECO 2e 14,100 tonnes CO 2 2 2 2 2 2,190 tonnes CO e/yr =−15.6% tonnes CO2e/yr e/yr = × ( ) Uncertainty Estimate of CH 4 and N 2 O Emissions from Diesel-fired Equipment: For diesel engines, the emission factor is provided on a heat input basis. The equipment ratings provided in Table F-5 are converted to volume of fuel consumed on a heat input basis using the conversion factor 8,089 Btu/hp-hr (from API Compendium Table 4-2). An uncertainty of 5% is assumed based on engineering judgment for this conversion factor. Diesel engine >600 hp: -6 1,800 hp 8,089 Btu 200 hr 3.7× 10 tonne CH4 E CH = 1 Unit × × × × = 0.0108 tonnes CH 4 6 4 /yr unit hp-hr yr 10 Btu -7 1,800 hp 8,089 Btu 200 hr 6.01 × 10 tonne N2O E NO = 1 Unit × × × × = 0.00175 tonnes N 2 6 2O/yr unit hp-hr yr 10 Btu As discussed earlier, we assume there is no uncertainty in the number of units, the count of diesel engines. The uncertainty in the unit capacity is 5%, the uncertainty in the hp-hr to Btu conversion factor is 5%, and the uncertainty in the average hours of operation is 10% based on expert judgment. The uncertainty in the emissions factors are determined by engineering judgment to be 25% for CH 4 and +150%, –100% for N 2 O. The uncertainty of the emissions is calculated by applying Equation 4-6 and using the relative uncertainty values. Because it is not possible to have negative emissions, the lower bound uncertainty will be truncated at zero. As a result, the lower and upper bound uncertainties are estimated separately. U ( rel) = U(rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) 2 2 2 2 2 emissions NumberOfUnits UnityCapacity Btu/hp-hr conv OperationHours EF ( ) For CH : Urel ( ) = 0 + 5 + 5 + 10 + 25 =± 27.8% tonnes CH /yr 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 Urel = + + + + =+ , −100% ( tonnes N O/yr) 2 2 2 2 2 For N20 : ( ) 0 5 5 10 150 151% 2 Pilot Version, September 2009 F-11
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Prepared by the LEVON Group, LLC an
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Table of Contents SECTION Page FORE
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List of Tables SECTION Page 2-1 Ove
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FOREWORD The global oil and natural
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DOCUMENT AT A GLANCE This document
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1.0 INTRODUCTION Policymakers use e
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Clim
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2.0 SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY There ar
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Table 2-1. Overview of Methods Used
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the uncertainty associated with cur
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d. Data processing uncertainty Typi
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d. Material Balance For some emissi
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3.0 OVERVIEW OF MEASUREMENT PRACTIC
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3.1 Flow Measurement Practices Cont
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All these factors should be assesse
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Table 3-1. Example of FFMS Combined
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3.2 Uncertainties of Flow Measureme
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Table 3-3. Compilation of Specifica
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EXHIBIT 3-3: FACTORS TO CONSIDER WH
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3.3.2 Quantifying Sampling Precisio
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Table 3-4. Summary of Selected Carb
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3.5 Heat Content Determination The
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3.5.2 Computational Methods Heating
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using standard methods, non-standar
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0.6 0.4 0.2 Error 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6
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s ± t × (Equation 4-1) n where s
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4.2.1 Propagation Equations There a
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For two terms that might be correla
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EXHIBIT 4-1: Uncertainty Example fo
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Further guidance for assigning unce
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4.4 Quantifying Measurement Uncerta
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Are the data based on a single poin
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Two methods are compared. The first
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. EXHIBIT 4-6: Uncertainty Example
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Table 4-13 shows the uncertainty in
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Table 4-13. Comparison of Annual Em
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• The evolution of activity and e
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These guidelines concentrate solely
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(Reprinted from the API Compendium)
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Table 5-2. Onshore Oil Field (High
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associated with them are assigned b
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Table 5-4. Onshore Oil Field (High
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5.2.4 Propagating Assymetric Uncert
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U( rel) = U( rel) + U( rel) + U( re
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Coke burn rate approach (Equation 5
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Wt% C ∑ lbmole x lbmole C 12 lb C
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The CO 2 emissions are calculated u
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GHG Emissions, tonnes/yr 60,000 50,
Page 105 and 106: vast majority of the uncertainty fo
Page 107 and 108: 6.0 REFERENCES AGA, 2008, Greenhous
Page 109 and 110: The Alberta Energy and Utilities Bo
Page 111 and 112: Appendix A GLOSSARY OF STATISTICAL
Page 117 and 118: APPENDIX B LIST OF INDUSTRY MEASURE
Page 119 and 120: Chapter 2.8B Establishment of the L
Page 121 and 122: Chapter 11.5.3 Chapter 12.1.1 Chapt
Page 123 and 124: Chapter 19.4 Chapter 20.1 RP 85 RP
Page 125 and 126: ISO 8222:2002 ISO 8697:1999 ISO 902
Page 127 and 128: ISO 7194:2008 Measurement of fluid
Page 129 and 130: ASTM D4292 ASTM D4892 ASTM D5002 AS
Page 131 and 132: APPENDIX C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 133 and 134: Appendix C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 135 and 136: Appendix D SELECT MEASUREMENT METHO
Page 137 and 138: c. ASTM UOP539-97, Refinery Gas Ana
Page 139 and 140: interference between known componen
Page 141 and 142: maintained over the room temperatur
Page 143 and 144: APPENDIX E UNITS CONVERSION
Page 145 and 146: − Gasoline density (average) = 0.
Page 147 and 148: Appendix F UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION D
Page 149 and 150: The uncertainty for the heaters/reb
Page 151 and 152: ∑ 2 U ( abs) = U( abs) ∑(Wt%C)
Page 153 and 154: Combining the fuel usage for the tw
Page 155: Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
Page 159 and 160: E E CO2e 219 tonne CO ⎛ 2 0.0108
Page 161 and 162: E CO 2 6 500× 10 scf gas lbmole ga
Page 163 and 164: • Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
Page 165 and 166: Upper: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs)
Page 167 and 168: default CH 4 content is 5.53% from
Page 169 and 170: Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
Page 171 and 172: ( ) Urel ( ) = Urel ( ) = Urel ( )
Page 173 and 174: Uncertainty Estimate for CH 4 and C
Page 175 and 176: specific mole % for CH 4 and CO 2 i
Page 177 and 178: E CO2 0.07239 tonne CH 4 tonne mole
Page 179 and 180: U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel
Page 181 and 182: Table F-14. Fugitive Emission and U
Page 183 and 184: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) +U( ab
Page 185 and 186: Table F-15. Onshore Oil Field (High
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