addressing uncertainty in oil and natural gas industry greenhouse

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Uncertainty for Regenerator CO 2 Emissions – Coke Burn Rate Approach (Compendium Equation 5-4) Applying API Compendium Equation 5-4, the estimated CO 2 emissions from the regenerator would be: tonnes Coke Burned 0.93 tonnes C 44 tonnes CO2 E CO = 119,750 × × 408,348 tonnes CO 2 2 /year year tonnes Coke 12 tonnes C = The uncertainty is calculated by applying Equation 4-6 and using the relative uncertainty values. U( rel) = U( rel) + U( rel) U rel CO2 2 2 Coke burned C content 2 2 ( ) CO = 15 + 5.5 = 15.98% 2 Uncertainty for Regenerator CO 2 Emissions – “K 1 , K 2 , K 3 ” Approach (API Compendium Equation 5-5) Applying the air rate to API Compendium Equation 5-5, the CO 2 emission estimate is: ⎡0.2982 kg - min 2,150 dscm ⎤ 44 tonne 8760 hr E CO = × × ( 11% + 9% ) × × × 411,862 tonnes CO 2 ⎢ = 2 /yr ⎣ hr - dscm % min ⎥ ⎦ 12 1,000 kg yr Note, the K 1 term (0.2982 kg-min/hr-dscm%) is a constant. For this calculation, the uncertainty associated with the sum of the CO 2 and CO is determined first. This uncertainty is calculated by applying Equation 4-4, using the absolute uncertainties. U ( abs) U ( abs) U ( abs) concentrations CO2 CO = = 0.5 0.5 = 2 2 U ( abs) + (0.05× 11) + (0.05× 9) 2 Reproducibility 2 2 = 0.743 = 0.673 + U ( abs) 2 Variability U ( rel) U ( rel) CO CO2 0.743 = 100% × = 6.76% 2 11 0.673 = 100% × = 7.47% 9 Equation 4-4, using the absolute uncertainties, is also applied to combine these compositions. U ( abs) = U ( abs) 2 concentrations CO2 + U ( abs) 2 CO U ( abs) U ( rel) concentrations concentrations = 0.743 2 + 0.673 = 1.002 1.002 = 100% × = 5.01% 11+ 9 2 The CO 2 uncertainty is then calculated by applying Equation 4-6 and using the relative uncertainty values. Pilot Version, September 2009 5-11
U( rel) = U( rel) + U( rel) + U( rel) U rel CO2 2 2 2 Air rate CO and CO2 Annualhours 2 2 2 ( ) CO = 15 + 5.01 + 2 = 15.94% 2 Uncertainty for Regenerator CO 2 Emissions – Air Blower Rate Approach (API Compendium Equation 5-6) Using the air rate in API Compendium Equation 5-6 yields: E 2150 m = ⎛0.11 m CO × 0.09 m CO m CO + × ⎞ × 44 kg CO /kgmole CO ⎝ ⎠ 525,600 min tonnes × × year 1000 kg 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 CO2 ⎜ 3 3 3 ⎟ 3 min m gas m gas m CO 23.685 m CO 2/kgmole CO2 E = 419,859 tonnes CO /year CO2 2 From an uncertainty perspective, this calculation is the same as shown for the “K 1 , K 2 , K 3 ” Approach (API Compendium Equation 5-5). Both equations apply the summed composition of CO 2 and CO, the air rate, and an annual operational time. The uncertainty of 15.94%, calculated above, would apply for this approach as well. Uncertainty for Supplemental Natural Gas Firing The emissions from the supplemental firing are in addition to the CO 2 emissions from the FCCU regenerator. Emissions from the supplemental firing of natural gas are estimated using the combustion emission approaches presented in API Compendium Section 4. For CO 2 , the emission factor is taken from API Compendium Table 4-3 for pipeline natural gas. E × hr 10 Btu yr 6 100 10 Btu 0.0531 tonne CO2 8760 hr CO = × × 2 6 E = 46,516 tonnes CO / yr CO2 2 The CO 2 uncertainty is calculated by applying Equation 4-6 and using relative uncertainty values. API Compendium Table 4-3 does not provide an indication of the uncertainty associated with this emission factor, so a value of 5% is assigned by expert judgment. U( rel) = U( rel) + U( rel) U rel CO2 2 2 ( ) CO = 5 + 5 = 7.07% 2 2 2 Heat rate Emission Factor The CH 4 emission factor is taken from API Compendium Table 4-7 for natural gas fired boilers. Pilot Version, September 2009 5-12
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Prepared by the LEVON Group, LLC an
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Table of Contents SECTION Page FORE
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List of Tables SECTION Page 2-1 Ove
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FOREWORD The global oil and natural
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DOCUMENT AT A GLANCE This document
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1.0 INTRODUCTION Policymakers use e
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Clim
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2.0 SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY There ar
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Table 2-1. Overview of Methods Used
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the uncertainty associated with cur
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d. Data processing uncertainty Typi
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d. Material Balance For some emissi
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3.0 OVERVIEW OF MEASUREMENT PRACTIC
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3.1 Flow Measurement Practices Cont
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All these factors should be assesse
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Table 3-1. Example of FFMS Combined
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3.2 Uncertainties of Flow Measureme
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Table 3-3. Compilation of Specifica
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EXHIBIT 3-3: FACTORS TO CONSIDER WH
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3.3.2 Quantifying Sampling Precisio
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Table 3-4. Summary of Selected Carb
Page 43 and 44: 3.5 Heat Content Determination The
Page 45 and 46: 3.5.2 Computational Methods Heating
Page 47 and 48: using standard methods, non-standar
Page 49 and 50: 0.6 0.4 0.2 Error 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6
Page 51 and 52: s ± t × (Equation 4-1) n where s
Page 53 and 54: 4.2.1 Propagation Equations There a
Page 55 and 56: For two terms that might be correla
Page 57 and 58: EXHIBIT 4-1: Uncertainty Example fo
Page 61 and 62: Further guidance for assigning unce
Page 63 and 64: 4.4 Quantifying Measurement Uncerta
Page 69 and 70: Are the data based on a single poin
Page 71 and 72: Two methods are compared. The first
Page 73 and 74: . EXHIBIT 4-6: Uncertainty Example
Page 77 and 78: Table 4-13 shows the uncertainty in
Page 79 and 80: Table 4-13. Comparison of Annual Em
Page 81 and 82: • The evolution of activity and e
Page 83 and 84: These guidelines concentrate solely
Page 85 and 86: (Reprinted from the API Compendium)
Page 87 and 88: Table 5-2. Onshore Oil Field (High
Page 89 and 90: associated with them are assigned b
Page 91 and 92: Table 5-4. Onshore Oil Field (High
Page 93: 5.2.4 Propagating Assymetric Uncert
Page 97 and 98: Coke burn rate approach (Equation 5
Page 99 and 100: Wt% C ∑ lbmole x lbmole C 12 lb C
Page 101 and 102: The CO 2 emissions are calculated u
Page 103 and 104: GHG Emissions, tonnes/yr 60,000 50,
Page 105 and 106: vast majority of the uncertainty fo
Page 107 and 108: 6.0 REFERENCES AGA, 2008, Greenhous
Page 109 and 110: The Alberta Energy and Utilities Bo
Page 111 and 112: Appendix A GLOSSARY OF STATISTICAL
Page 117 and 118: APPENDIX B LIST OF INDUSTRY MEASURE
Page 119 and 120: Chapter 2.8B Establishment of the L
Page 121 and 122: Chapter 11.5.3 Chapter 12.1.1 Chapt
Page 123 and 124: Chapter 19.4 Chapter 20.1 RP 85 RP
Page 125 and 126: ISO 8222:2002 ISO 8697:1999 ISO 902
Page 127 and 128: ISO 7194:2008 Measurement of fluid
Page 129 and 130: ASTM D4292 ASTM D4892 ASTM D5002 AS
Page 131 and 132: APPENDIX C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 133 and 134: Appendix C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 135 and 136: Appendix D SELECT MEASUREMENT METHO
Page 137 and 138: c. ASTM UOP539-97, Refinery Gas Ana
Page 139 and 140: interference between known componen
Page 141 and 142: maintained over the room temperatur
Page 143 and 144: APPENDIX E UNITS CONVERSION
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− Gasoline density (average) = 0.
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Appendix F UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION D
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The uncertainty for the heaters/reb
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∑ 2 U ( abs) = U( abs) ∑(Wt%C)
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Combining the fuel usage for the tw
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Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
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U ( abs) = ( U ( abs) + U ( abs) +
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E E CO2e 219 tonne CO ⎛ 2 0.0108
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E CO 2 6 500× 10 scf gas lbmole ga
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• Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
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Upper: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs)
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default CH 4 content is 5.53% from
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Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
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( ) Urel ( ) = Urel ( ) = Urel ( )
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Uncertainty Estimate for CH 4 and C
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specific mole % for CH 4 and CO 2 i
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E CO2 0.07239 tonne CH 4 tonne mole
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U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel
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Table F-14. Fugitive Emission and U
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U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) +U( ab
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Table F-15. Onshore Oil Field (High
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