addressing uncertainty in oil and natural gas industry greenhouse

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Uncertainty Estimate for CH 4 and CO 2 Emissions from Compressor Starts: CH4 4 4 = × ×⎜ ⎟ compressor - yr 0.788 tonne mole CH 4 (default EF) E (11 compressors) E = 1.81 tonnes CH /yr CH4 4 0.1620 tonne CH ⎛ 0.80 tonne mole CH (facility) ⎝ ⎞ ⎠ E E CO2 0.1620 tonne CH 4 tonne mole CH4 0.80 tonne mole CH 4 (facility) = (11 compressors) × × × compressor - yr 16.04 tonne CH 0.788 tonne mole CH (default) 4 4 4 tonne mole gas 0.12 tonne mole CO2 44.01 tonne CO2 × × × = 0.745 tonnes CO 2 /yr 0.8 tonne mole CH tonne mole gas tonne mole CO 0.745 tonne CO = ⎛1.81 tonne CH + 21 tonne CO e ⎞ × = 38.7 tonne CO e/yr ⎝ ⎠ 2 4 2 CO2e ⎜ ⎟ 2 yr yr tonne CH4 2 Urel ( ) = Urel ( ) + Urel ( ) + Urel ( ) + U Urel 2 2 2 2 ECO , E 2 CH4 AF EF Facility mole% Default mole% ( ) 2 2 2 2 ( ) E , 0 190 4 5.53 190%, 100% tonnes/yr CO E = + + + =+ − 2 CH4 Because the emissions cannot be less than zero, the lower bound uncertainty value for this emission source is truncated at 100%. Therefore, separate upper and lower bound uncertainties are estimated for the CO 2 e emissions. U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) 2 2 ECO2e ECO2 ECH4 Upper: 2 2 Uabs ( ) = (1.90× 0.745) + (1.90× 21× 1.81) = 72.3 tonnes CO e/yr ECO2e 2 72.3 tonnes CO e/yr Urel ( ) = 100% × =+ 187% tonnes CO e/yr ( ) 2 ECO2e 2 38.7 tonnes CO2e/yr U( abs) = U ( abs) + U ( abs) 2 2 ECO 2e ECO E 2 CH4 Lower: abs ( ) ( ) ECO 2e 2 2 U( ) = − 1.00× 0.745 + − 1.00× 21× 1.81 = 38.0 tonnes CO e/yr rel 38.0 tonnes CO e/y = × =− ( ) 2 U( ) E 100% 98.1% tonnes CO2e/yr CO2 e 38.7 tonnes CO2e/y Uncertainty Estimate for CH 4 and CO 2 Emissions from Compressor Blowdowns: 2 E (11 compressors) CH4 4 4 = × ×⎜ ⎟ compressor - yr 0.788 tonne mole CH 4 (default EF) E = 0.808 tonnes CH /yr CH4 4 0.07239 tonne CH ⎛ 0.80 tonne mole CH (facility) ⎝ ⎞ ⎠ Pilot Version, September 2009 F-30
E CO2 0.07239 tonne CH 4 tonne mole CH4 0.80 tonne mole CH 4 (facility) = (11 compressors) × × × compressor - yr 16.04 tonne CH 0.788 tonne mole CH (default) 4 4 4 tonne mole gas 0.12 tonne mole CO2 44.01 tonne CO2 × × × = 0.333 tonnes CO 2 /yr 0.8 tonne mole CH tonne mole gas tonne mole CO 2 E 0.333 tonne CO = ⎛0.808 tonne CH + 21 tonne CO e ⎞ × = 17.3 tonne CO e/yr ⎝ ⎠ 2 4 2 CO2e ⎜ ⎟ 2 yr yr tonne CH4 U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) 2 2 2 2 E CO ,E 2 CH4 AF EF Facility mole% Default mole% Urel = + + + =+ − ( ) 2 2 2 2 ( ) E CO ,E 0 179 4 5.53 179%, 100% tonnes/yr 2 CH4 Because the emissions cannot be less than zero, the lower bound uncertainty value for this emission source is truncated at 100%. Therefore, separate upper and lower bound uncertainties are estimated for the CO 2 e emissions. U ( abs) = ( U ( abs) + U ( abs) 2 2 ECO 2e ECO E 2 CH4 Upper: 2 2 U ( abs) = (1.79× 0.333) + (1.79× 21× 0.808) = 30.4 tonnes CO e/yr Urel ECO 2e 30.4 tonnes CO e/yr ( ) 2 ( ) E = 100% × =+ 175% tonnes CO2e/y CO2e 17.3 tonnes CO2e/yr U( abs) = U ( abs) + U ( abs) 2 2 ECO 2e ECO E 2 CH4 Lower: abs ( ) ( ) ECO 2e 2 2 U( ) = − 1.00× 0.333 + − 1.00× 21× 0.808 = 17.0 tonnes CO e/yr 17.0 tonnes CO e/y = × =− ( ) 2 U( rel) E 100% 98.1% tonnes CO2e/yr CO2e 17.3tonnes CO2e/y 2 2 Uncertainty Estimate for CH 4 and CO 2 Emissions from Oil Well Workovers: E CH4 24 well workovers 4 4 = × ×⎜ ⎟ yr workovers 0.788 tonne mole CH 4 (default EF) E = 0.0439 tonnes CH /yr E CH4 4 CO2 0.0018 tonne CH ⎛ 0.80 tonne mole CH (facility) 4 ⎝ 24 well workovers 0.0018 tonne CH 4 tonne mole CH4 0.80 tonne mole CH 4 (facility) = × × × yr workovers 16.04 tonne CH 0.788 tonne mole CH (default) 4 4 tonne mole gas 0.12 tonne mole CO2 44.01 tonne CO2 × × × = 0.0181 tonnes CO 2 /yr 0.8 tonne mole CH tonne mole gas tonne mole CO 2 ⎞ ⎠ Pilot Version, September 2009 F-31
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Prepared by the LEVON Group, LLC an
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Table of Contents SECTION Page FORE
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List of Tables SECTION Page 2-1 Ove
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FOREWORD The global oil and natural
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DOCUMENT AT A GLANCE This document
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1.0 INTRODUCTION Policymakers use e
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Clim
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2.0 SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY There ar
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Table 2-1. Overview of Methods Used
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the uncertainty associated with cur
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d. Data processing uncertainty Typi
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d. Material Balance For some emissi
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3.0 OVERVIEW OF MEASUREMENT PRACTIC
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3.1 Flow Measurement Practices Cont
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All these factors should be assesse
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Table 3-1. Example of FFMS Combined
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3.2 Uncertainties of Flow Measureme
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Table 3-3. Compilation of Specifica
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EXHIBIT 3-3: FACTORS TO CONSIDER WH
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3.3.2 Quantifying Sampling Precisio
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Table 3-4. Summary of Selected Carb
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3.5 Heat Content Determination The
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3.5.2 Computational Methods Heating
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using standard methods, non-standar
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0.6 0.4 0.2 Error 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6
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s ± t × (Equation 4-1) n where s
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4.2.1 Propagation Equations There a
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For two terms that might be correla
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EXHIBIT 4-1: Uncertainty Example fo
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Further guidance for assigning unce
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4.4 Quantifying Measurement Uncerta
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Are the data based on a single poin
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Two methods are compared. The first
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. EXHIBIT 4-6: Uncertainty Example
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Table 4-13 shows the uncertainty in
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Table 4-13. Comparison of Annual Em
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• The evolution of activity and e
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These guidelines concentrate solely
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(Reprinted from the API Compendium)
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Table 5-2. Onshore Oil Field (High
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associated with them are assigned b
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Table 5-4. Onshore Oil Field (High
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5.2.4 Propagating Assymetric Uncert
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U( rel) = U( rel) + U( rel) + U( re
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Coke burn rate approach (Equation 5
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Wt% C ∑ lbmole x lbmole C 12 lb C
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The CO 2 emissions are calculated u
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GHG Emissions, tonnes/yr 60,000 50,
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vast majority of the uncertainty fo
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6.0 REFERENCES AGA, 2008, Greenhous
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The Alberta Energy and Utilities Bo
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Appendix A GLOSSARY OF STATISTICAL
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APPENDIX B LIST OF INDUSTRY MEASURE
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Chapter 2.8B Establishment of the L
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Chapter 11.5.3 Chapter 12.1.1 Chapt
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Chapter 19.4 Chapter 20.1 RP 85 RP
Page 125 and 126: ISO 8222:2002 ISO 8697:1999 ISO 902
Page 127 and 128: ISO 7194:2008 Measurement of fluid
Page 129 and 130: ASTM D4292 ASTM D4892 ASTM D5002 AS
Page 131 and 132: APPENDIX C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 133 and 134: Appendix C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 135 and 136: Appendix D SELECT MEASUREMENT METHO
Page 137 and 138: c. ASTM UOP539-97, Refinery Gas Ana
Page 139 and 140: interference between known componen
Page 141 and 142: maintained over the room temperatur
Page 143 and 144: APPENDIX E UNITS CONVERSION
Page 145 and 146: − Gasoline density (average) = 0.
Page 147 and 148: Appendix F UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION D
Page 149 and 150: The uncertainty for the heaters/reb
Page 151 and 152: ∑ 2 U ( abs) = U( abs) ∑(Wt%C)
Page 153 and 154: Combining the fuel usage for the tw
Page 155 and 156: Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
Page 157 and 158: U ( abs) = ( U ( abs) + U ( abs) +
Page 159 and 160: E E CO2e 219 tonne CO ⎛ 2 0.0108
Page 161 and 162: E CO 2 6 500× 10 scf gas lbmole ga
Page 163 and 164: • Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
Page 165 and 166: Upper: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs)
Page 167 and 168: default CH 4 content is 5.53% from
Page 169 and 170: Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
Page 171 and 172: ( ) Urel ( ) = Urel ( ) = Urel ( )
Page 173 and 174: Uncertainty Estimate for CH 4 and C
Page 175: specific mole % for CH 4 and CO 2 i
Page 179 and 180: U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel
Page 181 and 182: Table F-14. Fugitive Emission and U
Page 183 and 184: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) +U( ab
Page 185 and 186: Table F-15. Onshore Oil Field (High
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