addressing uncertainty in oil and natural gas industry greenhouse

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SECTION Table of Contents, continued 4.3 Quantifying Emission Estimation Uncertainty 4.3.1 Simple Emission Estimation: EF x AF 4.3.2 Fugitive Emission Estimation 4.3.3 Emission Factor Uncertainty 4.4 Quantifying Measurement Uncertainty 4.4.1 Measurement Uncertainty – Multiple Measurements 4.5 Aggregating Uncertainty 4.5.1 Rounding off of Statistical Estimate 4.6 Assessing Data Correlations 4.6.1 Monte Carlo Simulation 4.6.2 Comparison of Error Propagation and Monte Carlo 4-35 5.0 UNCERTAINTY CALCULATION EXAMPLES 5-1 5.1 Introduction 5-1 5.2 Example 1: Onshore Oil Field with High CO 2 Content 5.2.1 Background 5.2.2 Assigning Uncertainties to Activity Factors 5.2.3 Propagating Uncertainty in Calculated Activity Factors 5.2.4 Propagating Asymmetric Uncertainty Distribution 5.3 Example 2: Refinery 5.3.1 Background 5.3.2 Uncertainty Comparison for FCCU Emission Estimation Methods 5.3.3 Uncertainty Comparison for Hydrogen Plant Emission Estimation Methods 5.4 Strategic Reduction of Uncertainty 5.4.1 Opportunities to Improve the Uncertainty Estimation for the Onshore Oil Field 5-20 6.0 REFERENCES 6-1 Appendices A B C D E F Glossary of Statistical and GHG Inventory Terms List of Industry Measurement Standards Operating Conditions, Inspection, Calibration and Expected Uncertainties for Common Flow Meters Select Measurement Methods Summaries Units Conversion Uncertainty Estimation Details for an Example Inventory 4-8 4-8 Page 4-10 4-13 4-16 4-21 4-29 4-33 4-33 4-34 5-1 5-1 5-5 5-7 5-10 5-10 5-10 5-10 5-15 5-18 Pilot Version, September 2009 iii
List of Tables SECTION Page 2-1 Overview of Methods Used to Estimate Emissions Uncertainty 2-2 3-1 Example of FFMS Combined Uncertainty 3-7 3-2 Summary of Alberta ERCB Accuracy Requirements 3-8 3-3 Compilation of Specifications for Common Flow Meters 3-10 3-4 Summary of Selected Carbon Content Measurement Methods 3-17 3-5 Summary of Selected Heating Value Measurement Methods 3-20 4-1 Component Counts and Uncertainties 4-11 4-2 Emission Factors and Uncertainties 4-11 4-3 Methane Weight Fractions for Production Operations by Service 4-12 4-4 Estimate Fugitive CH 4 Emission 4-13 4-5 Uncertainty in a Single Measurement 4-19 4-6 Flow Measurements (in Mscf/day) 4-20 4-7 Uncertainty in Summation of Flow Measurements – Annual 4-21 4-8 Uncertainty in Summation of Flow Measurements – Monthly 4-21 4-9 Measured Composition Data 4-25 4-10 Average Composition Calculations 4-25 4-11 Measured Monthly Composition Data 4-27 4-12 Measured Monthly Emission Factors 4-29 4-13 Comparison of Annual Emission Estimates 4-32 5-1 Onshore Oil Field (High CO 2 Content) Emission Sources 5-2 5-2 Onshore Oil Field (High CO 2 Content) Fugitive Emission Sources 5-4 5-3 Gas Composition for Onshore Oil Field (High CO 2 Content) 5-4 5-4 Onshore Oil Field (High CO 2 Content) Emissions 5-8 5-5 Uncertainty Comparison for FCCU Estimation Methods 5-14 5-6 Composition Data 5-15 5-7 Hydrogen and Carbon Composition Data 5-17 5-8 Emission Uncertainty Ranking for Onshore Oil Production Example 5-19 D-1 Natural Gas Components and Range of Composition Covered D-1 D-2 ASTM D1945-03 Precision for Natural Gas Samples D-2 D-3 ASTM D1945-03 Precision for Reformed Gas Samples D-2 D-4 ASTM D4891-89 Range of Composition for Natural Gas D-5 Components F-1 Gas Composition for Onshore Production Platform F-1 F-2 Operating Parameters for Boilers, Heaters and Reboilers F-2 F-3 Operating Parameters for Turbines F-3 F-4 Natural Gas Composition F-4 F-5 Operating Parameters for Diesel Engines F-6 F-6 Operating Parameters for Flares F-13 Pilot Version, September 2009 iv
Page 1 and 2: Prepared by the LEVON Group, LLC an
Page 3: Table of Contents SECTION Page FORE
Page 7 and 8: FOREWORD The global oil and natural
Page 9 and 10: DOCUMENT AT A GLANCE This document
Page 11 and 12: 1.0 INTRODUCTION Policymakers use e
Page 13 and 14: The Intergovernmental Panel on Clim
Page 15 and 16: 2.0 SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY There ar
Page 17 and 18: Table 2-1. Overview of Methods Used
Page 19 and 20: the uncertainty associated with cur
Page 21 and 22: d. Data processing uncertainty Typi
Page 23 and 24: d. Material Balance For some emissi
Page 25 and 26: 3.0 OVERVIEW OF MEASUREMENT PRACTIC
Page 27 and 28: 3.1 Flow Measurement Practices Cont
Page 29 and 30: All these factors should be assesse
Page 31 and 32: Table 3-1. Example of FFMS Combined
Page 33 and 34: 3.2 Uncertainties of Flow Measureme
Page 35 and 36: Table 3-3. Compilation of Specifica
Page 37 and 38: EXHIBIT 3-3: FACTORS TO CONSIDER WH
Page 39 and 40: 3.3.2 Quantifying Sampling Precisio
Page 41 and 42: Table 3-4. Summary of Selected Carb
Page 43 and 44: 3.5 Heat Content Determination The
Page 45 and 46: 3.5.2 Computational Methods Heating
Page 47 and 48: using standard methods, non-standar
Page 49 and 50: 0.6 0.4 0.2 Error 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6
Page 51 and 52: s ± t × (Equation 4-1) n where s
Page 53 and 54: 4.2.1 Propagation Equations There a
Page 55 and 56:
For two terms that might be correla
Page 57 and 58:
EXHIBIT 4-1: Uncertainty Example fo
Page 59 and 60:
Page 61 and 62:
Further guidance for assigning unce
Page 63 and 64:
4.4 Quantifying Measurement Uncerta
Page 65 and 66:
Page 67 and 68:
Page 69 and 70:
Are the data based on a single poin
Page 71 and 72:
Two methods are compared. The first
Page 73 and 74:
. EXHIBIT 4-6: Uncertainty Example
Page 75 and 76:
Page 77 and 78:
Table 4-13 shows the uncertainty in
Page 79 and 80:
Table 4-13. Comparison of Annual Em
Page 81 and 82:
• The evolution of activity and e
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These guidelines concentrate solely
Page 85 and 86:
(Reprinted from the API Compendium)
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Table 5-2. Onshore Oil Field (High
Page 89 and 90:
associated with them are assigned b
Page 91 and 92:
Table 5-4. Onshore Oil Field (High
Page 93 and 94:
5.2.4 Propagating Assymetric Uncert
Page 95 and 96:
U( rel) = U( rel) + U( rel) + U( re
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Coke burn rate approach (Equation 5
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Wt% C ∑ lbmole x lbmole C 12 lb C
Page 101 and 102:
The CO 2 emissions are calculated u
Page 103 and 104:
GHG Emissions, tonnes/yr 60,000 50,
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vast majority of the uncertainty fo
Page 107 and 108:
6.0 REFERENCES AGA, 2008, Greenhous
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The Alberta Energy and Utilities Bo
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Appendix A GLOSSARY OF STATISTICAL
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
Page 117 and 118:
APPENDIX B LIST OF INDUSTRY MEASURE
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Chapter 2.8B Establishment of the L
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Chapter 11.5.3 Chapter 12.1.1 Chapt
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Chapter 19.4 Chapter 20.1 RP 85 RP
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ISO 8222:2002 ISO 8697:1999 ISO 902
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ISO 7194:2008 Measurement of fluid
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ASTM D4292 ASTM D4892 ASTM D5002 AS
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APPENDIX C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
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Appendix C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
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Appendix D SELECT MEASUREMENT METHO
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c. ASTM UOP539-97, Refinery Gas Ana
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interference between known componen
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maintained over the room temperatur
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APPENDIX E UNITS CONVERSION
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− Gasoline density (average) = 0.
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Appendix F UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION D
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The uncertainty for the heaters/reb
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∑ 2 U ( abs) = U( abs) ∑(Wt%C)
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Combining the fuel usage for the tw
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Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
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U ( abs) = ( U ( abs) + U ( abs) +
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E E CO2e 219 tonne CO ⎛ 2 0.0108
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E CO 2 6 500× 10 scf gas lbmole ga
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• Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
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Upper: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs)
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default CH 4 content is 5.53% from
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Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
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( ) Urel ( ) = Urel ( ) = Urel ( )
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Uncertainty Estimate for CH 4 and C
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specific mole % for CH 4 and CO 2 i
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E CO2 0.07239 tonne CH 4 tonne mole
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U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel
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Table F-14. Fugitive Emission and U
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U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) +U( ab
Page 185 and 186:
Table F-15. Onshore Oil Field (High
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