addressing uncertainty in oil and natural gas industry greenhouse

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Equation 4-4 and using the absolute uncertainty values. The uncertainty in the emissions factor for the dehydrator is 191% from Table 5-2 of the API Compendium and 82.8% for the Kimray pump based on Table 5-4 of the API Compendium. U ( abs) = (1.91×0.0052859) +(0.828×0.01903) =0.0187 tonnes CH /10 scf 2 2 6 Emission factors 4 6 0.0187 tonnes CH 4 /10 scf Emission factors 6 4 0.024326 tonnes CH 4 /10 scf 6 ( ) Urel ( ) =100%× = ± 77.0% tonnes CH /10 scf E 30× 10 scf 343 day 0.80 tonne mole CH (facility) 0.024326 tonne CH 6 4 4 CH = × × × 4 6 day gas processed yr 0.788 tonne mole CH 4 (default) 10 scf E = 254 tonnes CH /yr CH4 4 The uncertainty of the emissions can be calculated by applying Equation 4-6 and using the relative uncertainty values. As noted in Table 5-1, there is no uncertainty associated with the count of equipment. The uncertainty associated with the volume of gas is 5% and the uncertainty associated with the days of operation is 2%. The uncertainty in the CH 4 content for the facility gas is 4%. The uncertainty for the default CH 4 content is 5.53% from the GRI/EPA Methane Study (Shires and Harrison, Volume 6, Tables A-1, A-2, A-3, 1996), which is provided in Table E-4 of the API Compendium. U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) Urel ( ) = +U( ) +U( ) 2 2 2 2 Dehydrator units Gas processed Days Facility mole% emissions 2 2 rel Default mole% rel Emission factors ( ) Urel ( ) = 0 + 5 + 2 + 4 + 5.53 + 77.0 =± 77.5% tonnes CH /yr 2 2 2 2 2 2 emissions 4 Uncertainty Estimate for CO 2 Emissions from Dehydration: 6 30× 10 scf 343 day 0.024326 tonne CH 4 tonne mole CH4 0.80 tonne mole CH 4 (facility) E CO = × × × × 2 6 day gas processed yr 10 scf 16.04 tonne CH 0.788 tonne mole CH (default) tonne mole gas 0.12 tonne mole CO 44.01 tonne CO × × × 0.8 tonne mole CH tonne mole gas tonne mole CO 2 2 4 2 4 4 E =105 tonnes CO /yr CO2 2 The uncertainty of the CO 2 emissions is calculated by applying Equation 4-6 and using the relative uncertainty values. As noted in Table 5-1, there is no uncertainty associated with the count of equipment. The uncertainty associated with the volume of gas is 5% and the uncertainty associated with the days of operation is 2%. The uncertainty in the CO 2 content for the facility gas is 4%. The uncertainty for the Pilot Version, September 2009 F-20
default CH 4 content is 5.53% from the GRI/EPA Methane Study (Shires and Harrison, 1996), which is also provided in Table E-4 of the API Compendium. This equates to the same result as shown above for CH 4 . Note, the uncertainties for the CH 4 and CO 2 emissions would be different if different uncertainty values were associated with the respective molar compositions. U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) Urel ( ) = +U( ) +U( ) 2 2 2 2 Dehydrator units Gas processed Days Facility mole% emissions 2 2 rel Default mole% rel Emission factors ( ) Urel ( ) = 0 + 5 + 2 + 4 + 5.53 + 77.0 =± 77.5% tonnes CO /yr 2 2 2 2 2 2 emissions 2 Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emissions from Dehydration: E 106 tonne CO ⎛254 tonne CH 21 tonne CO e ⎞ = + × = 5,440 tonne CO e/yr yr ⎝ yr tonne CH ⎠ 2 4 2 CO2e ⎜ ⎟ 2 4 The uncertainty of the CO 2 e emissions is calculated by applying Equation 4-4, using the absolute uncertainty values. U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) 2 2 ECO2e ECO E 2 CH4 U ( abs) = (0.775× 106) + (0.775× 21× 254) = 4,130 tonnes CO e/yr 2 2 ECO2e 2 4,130 tonnes CO e/yr Urel ( ) = 100% × =± 76.0% tonnes CO e/yr ( ) 2 ECO2e 2 5,440 tonnes CO2e/yr F.7 Uncertainty in Vented Sources – Storage Tanks Table F-9 summarizes the operating parameters for storage tanks at the example facility. Table F-9. Operating Parameters for Storage Tanks Source Central tank battery Storage tanks Fuel No. of Units Crude Oil 1 ±0% units Unit Uncertainty Capacity (±%) a (per unit) 6,100 bbl/day Average Operation Uncertainty (per unit (±%) a per year) ±5% bbl/day 343 days/yr Annual Activity Factor Uncertainty (all units (±%) a combined) ±2% days/yr 2,092,300 bbl/yr Chemical 1 ±0% units N/A N/A N/A Naphtha 1 ±0% units N/A N/A N/A Glycol 1 ±0% units N/A N/A N/A Uncertainty (±%) a ±5.39% bbl/yr Pilot Version, September 2009 F-21
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Prepared by the LEVON Group, LLC an
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Table of Contents SECTION Page FORE
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List of Tables SECTION Page 2-1 Ove
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FOREWORD The global oil and natural
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DOCUMENT AT A GLANCE This document
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1.0 INTRODUCTION Policymakers use e
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Clim
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2.0 SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY There ar
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Table 2-1. Overview of Methods Used
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the uncertainty associated with cur
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d. Data processing uncertainty Typi
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d. Material Balance For some emissi
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3.0 OVERVIEW OF MEASUREMENT PRACTIC
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3.1 Flow Measurement Practices Cont
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All these factors should be assesse
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Table 3-1. Example of FFMS Combined
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3.2 Uncertainties of Flow Measureme
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Table 3-3. Compilation of Specifica
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EXHIBIT 3-3: FACTORS TO CONSIDER WH
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3.3.2 Quantifying Sampling Precisio
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Table 3-4. Summary of Selected Carb
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3.5 Heat Content Determination The
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3.5.2 Computational Methods Heating
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using standard methods, non-standar
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0.6 0.4 0.2 Error 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6
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s ± t × (Equation 4-1) n where s
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4.2.1 Propagation Equations There a
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For two terms that might be correla
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EXHIBIT 4-1: Uncertainty Example fo
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Further guidance for assigning unce
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4.4 Quantifying Measurement Uncerta
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Are the data based on a single poin
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Two methods are compared. The first
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. EXHIBIT 4-6: Uncertainty Example
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Table 4-13 shows the uncertainty in
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Table 4-13. Comparison of Annual Em
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• The evolution of activity and e
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These guidelines concentrate solely
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(Reprinted from the API Compendium)
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Table 5-2. Onshore Oil Field (High
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associated with them are assigned b
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Table 5-4. Onshore Oil Field (High
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5.2.4 Propagating Assymetric Uncert
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U( rel) = U( rel) + U( rel) + U( re
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Coke burn rate approach (Equation 5
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Wt% C ∑ lbmole x lbmole C 12 lb C
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The CO 2 emissions are calculated u
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GHG Emissions, tonnes/yr 60,000 50,
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vast majority of the uncertainty fo
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6.0 REFERENCES AGA, 2008, Greenhous
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The Alberta Energy and Utilities Bo
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Appendix A GLOSSARY OF STATISTICAL
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Appendix A GLOSSARY OF STATISTICAL
Page 115 and 116: Appendix A GLOSSARY OF STATISTICAL
Page 117 and 118: APPENDIX B LIST OF INDUSTRY MEASURE
Page 119 and 120: Chapter 2.8B Establishment of the L
Page 121 and 122: Chapter 11.5.3 Chapter 12.1.1 Chapt
Page 123 and 124: Chapter 19.4 Chapter 20.1 RP 85 RP
Page 125 and 126: ISO 8222:2002 ISO 8697:1999 ISO 902
Page 127 and 128: ISO 7194:2008 Measurement of fluid
Page 129 and 130: ASTM D4292 ASTM D4892 ASTM D5002 AS
Page 131 and 132: APPENDIX C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 133 and 134: Appendix C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 135 and 136: Appendix D SELECT MEASUREMENT METHO
Page 137 and 138: c. ASTM UOP539-97, Refinery Gas Ana
Page 139 and 140: interference between known componen
Page 141 and 142: maintained over the room temperatur
Page 143 and 144: APPENDIX E UNITS CONVERSION
Page 145 and 146: − Gasoline density (average) = 0.
Page 147 and 148: Appendix F UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION D
Page 149 and 150: The uncertainty for the heaters/reb
Page 151 and 152: ∑ 2 U ( abs) = U( abs) ∑(Wt%C)
Page 153 and 154: Combining the fuel usage for the tw
Page 155 and 156: Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
Page 157 and 158: U ( abs) = ( U ( abs) + U ( abs) +
Page 159 and 160: E E CO2e 219 tonne CO ⎛ 2 0.0108
Page 161 and 162: E CO 2 6 500× 10 scf gas lbmole ga
Page 163 and 164: • Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
Page 165: Upper: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs)
Page 169 and 170: Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
Page 171 and 172: ( ) Urel ( ) = Urel ( ) = Urel ( )
Page 173 and 174: Uncertainty Estimate for CH 4 and C
Page 175 and 176: specific mole % for CH 4 and CO 2 i
Page 177 and 178: E CO2 0.07239 tonne CH 4 tonne mole
Page 179 and 180: U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel
Page 181 and 182: Table F-14. Fugitive Emission and U
Page 183 and 184: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) +U( ab
Page 185 and 186: Table F-15. Onshore Oil Field (High
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