addressing uncertainty in oil and natural gas industry greenhouse

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Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emissions from Flares: The final step is to convert the emissions of CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O to a CO 2 e. Equation 4-4 is applied using absolute uncertainty values. Because the N 2 O uncertainty estimate is asymmetrical, separate upper and lower bound uncertainties are calculated for the CO 2 e emissions. E CO2e 27,400 tonne CO ⎛ 2 153 tonne CH4 21 tonne CO2e ⎞ = + ⎜ × ⎟ yr ⎝ yr tonne CH4 ⎠ ⎛0.223 tonne N O 310 tonne CO e ⎞ 2 2 + ⎜ × ⎟= 30,700 tonne CO2e/yr yr tonne N2O ⎝ ⎠ Upper: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) +U( abs) 2 2 2 ECO2e ECO E 2 CH E 4 N2O U ( abs) = (0.234× 27,400) + (0.253× 21× 153) + (2.00× 310× 0.233) = 6,460 tonnes CO e/yr Urel 2 2 2 ECO2e 2 6,460 tonnes CO e/yr = × =+ ( s CO e/yr ) 2 ( ) E 100% 21.1% tonne CO2e 30,700 tonnes CO2e/yr 2 Lower: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) +U( abs) U abs 2 2 2 ECO2e ECO E 2 CH E 4 N2O 2 2 2 ( ) E = ( − 0.234× 27, 400) + ( − 0.253× 21× 153) + ( − 1.00× 310× 0.233) = 6,460 tonnes CO2e/yr CO2e 6,460 tonnes CO2e/yr ( ) E = 100% × =− 21.1% ( tonnes CO2e/yr ) CO2e 2 Urel 30,700 tonnes CO e/yr F.5 Uncertainty in Combustion Sources – Fleet Vehicles Table F-7 summarizes the operating parameters for the flares. Table F-7. Operating Parameters for Fleet Vehicles Source Fleet Vehicles (Trucks) Fuel No. of Units Uncertainty (±%) a Average Operation (per unit per year) Uncertainty (±%) a Gasoline 5 ±0% units 40,000 mi/yr ea. ±15.0% mi/yr The calculations for fleet vehicle emissions are reprinted directly from the API Compendium. Some uncertainty values were assigned as follows: • Miles Driven per Vehicle = ±15% (assigned by expert judgment, based upon uncertainties in the vehicle logs gathered by the company). Pilot Version, September 2009 F-16
• Fuel Economy (miles per gallon) = ±5% (assigned by expert judgment, based on some fuel economy data for similar vehicle types). • Heat Value of Gasoline = ±5% (determined by expert judgment). • The number of trucks = ±0% (expert judgment determined that this count is perfectly known and discreet). • The CO 2 emission factor for this category, expressed in tonne CO 2 /MMBtu, has a provided uncertainty of ±10%. The reference source CH 4 and N 2 O emission factors, while small, have much larger uncertainties of +150%,–100%. Because it is not possible to have negative emissions, the lower bound uncertainty will be truncated at zero. As a result, the lower and upper bound uncertainties are estimated separately. The energy content of the fuel consumed by the vehicles (V) must first be converted to an energy input basis and is determined based on the annual miles and an average fuel economy. 6 40,000 mi gal bbl 5.25 × 10 Btu V = × × × yr-truck 14 mi 42 gal bbl 6 V=1,790× 10 Btu/yr-truck Uncertainty Estimate for Fleet Activity Data: Equation 4-6 is applied using the relative uncertainty values. U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) 2 2 2 Energy of Fuel AF fuel economy Heat value of gasoline Urel = + + =± ( ) 2 2 2 ( ) Energy of Fuel 15 5 5 16.6% Btu/yr-truck Uncertainty Estimate for CO 2 Emissions from Fleet: Carbon dioxide emissions are then calculated by applying the emission factor for vehicles. 6 1,790 × 10 Btu 0.0709 tonne CO E CO = 5 trucks × × 2 6 yr-truck 1×10 Btu E CO 2 2 = 127 tonnes CO /yr 2 Equation 4-6 is applied using the relative uncertainty values. U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) 2 2 2 CO Emissions Vehicle Energy of Fuel EF 2 2 ( ) Urel ( ) = 0 + 16.6 + 10 =± 19.4% tonnes CO /yr 2 2 2 CO Emissions 2 Uncertainty Estimate for CH 4 Emissions from Fleet: Methane emissions are then calculated by applying the emission factor for vehicles. Pilot Version, September 2009 F-17
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Prepared by the LEVON Group, LLC an
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Table of Contents SECTION Page FORE
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List of Tables SECTION Page 2-1 Ove
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FOREWORD The global oil and natural
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DOCUMENT AT A GLANCE This document
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1.0 INTRODUCTION Policymakers use e
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Clim
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2.0 SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY There ar
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Table 2-1. Overview of Methods Used
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the uncertainty associated with cur
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d. Data processing uncertainty Typi
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d. Material Balance For some emissi
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3.0 OVERVIEW OF MEASUREMENT PRACTIC
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3.1 Flow Measurement Practices Cont
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All these factors should be assesse
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Table 3-1. Example of FFMS Combined
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3.2 Uncertainties of Flow Measureme
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Table 3-3. Compilation of Specifica
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EXHIBIT 3-3: FACTORS TO CONSIDER WH
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3.3.2 Quantifying Sampling Precisio
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Table 3-4. Summary of Selected Carb
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3.5 Heat Content Determination The
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3.5.2 Computational Methods Heating
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using standard methods, non-standar
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0.6 0.4 0.2 Error 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6
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s ± t × (Equation 4-1) n where s
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4.2.1 Propagation Equations There a
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For two terms that might be correla
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EXHIBIT 4-1: Uncertainty Example fo
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Further guidance for assigning unce
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4.4 Quantifying Measurement Uncerta
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Are the data based on a single poin
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Two methods are compared. The first
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. EXHIBIT 4-6: Uncertainty Example
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Table 4-13 shows the uncertainty in
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Table 4-13. Comparison of Annual Em
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• The evolution of activity and e
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These guidelines concentrate solely
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(Reprinted from the API Compendium)
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Table 5-2. Onshore Oil Field (High
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associated with them are assigned b
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Table 5-4. Onshore Oil Field (High
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5.2.4 Propagating Assymetric Uncert
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U( rel) = U( rel) + U( rel) + U( re
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Coke burn rate approach (Equation 5
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Wt% C ∑ lbmole x lbmole C 12 lb C
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The CO 2 emissions are calculated u
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GHG Emissions, tonnes/yr 60,000 50,
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vast majority of the uncertainty fo
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6.0 REFERENCES AGA, 2008, Greenhous
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The Alberta Energy and Utilities Bo
Page 111 and 112: Appendix A GLOSSARY OF STATISTICAL
Page 117 and 118: APPENDIX B LIST OF INDUSTRY MEASURE
Page 119 and 120: Chapter 2.8B Establishment of the L
Page 121 and 122: Chapter 11.5.3 Chapter 12.1.1 Chapt
Page 123 and 124: Chapter 19.4 Chapter 20.1 RP 85 RP
Page 125 and 126: ISO 8222:2002 ISO 8697:1999 ISO 902
Page 127 and 128: ISO 7194:2008 Measurement of fluid
Page 129 and 130: ASTM D4292 ASTM D4892 ASTM D5002 AS
Page 131 and 132: APPENDIX C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 133 and 134: Appendix C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 135 and 136: Appendix D SELECT MEASUREMENT METHO
Page 137 and 138: c. ASTM UOP539-97, Refinery Gas Ana
Page 139 and 140: interference between known componen
Page 141 and 142: maintained over the room temperatur
Page 143 and 144: APPENDIX E UNITS CONVERSION
Page 145 and 146: − Gasoline density (average) = 0.
Page 147 and 148: Appendix F UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION D
Page 149 and 150: The uncertainty for the heaters/reb
Page 151 and 152: ∑ 2 U ( abs) = U( abs) ∑(Wt%C)
Page 153 and 154: Combining the fuel usage for the tw
Page 155 and 156: Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
Page 157 and 158: U ( abs) = ( U ( abs) + U ( abs) +
Page 159 and 160: E E CO2e 219 tonne CO ⎛ 2 0.0108
Page 161: E CO 2 6 500× 10 scf gas lbmole ga
Page 165 and 166: Upper: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs)
Page 167 and 168: default CH 4 content is 5.53% from
Page 169 and 170: Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
Page 171 and 172: ( ) Urel ( ) = Urel ( ) = Urel ( )
Page 173 and 174: Uncertainty Estimate for CH 4 and C
Page 175 and 176: specific mole % for CH 4 and CO 2 i
Page 177 and 178: E CO2 0.07239 tonne CH 4 tonne mole
Page 179 and 180: U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel
Page 181 and 182: Table F-14. Fugitive Emission and U
Page 183 and 184: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) +U( ab
Page 185 and 186: Table F-15. Onshore Oil Field (High
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