addressing uncertainty in oil and natural gas industry greenhouse

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6 6 ⎛40×10 scf 928 Btu ⎞ ⎛ 2×10 Btu 24 hr 343 days ⎞ V = ⎜ × ⎟+ ⎜3 Units× × × ⎟ ⎝ yr scf ⎠ ⎝ hr-unit day yr ⎠ 6 V = 86,512 ×10 Btu/yr The uncertainty for the boiler activity factor is calculated by applying Equation 4-6 and using the relative uncertainty values. 2 2 2 2 boiler AF AF Heating Value ( ) Urel ( ) = U( rel) +U( rel ) = 15 + 4 =± 15.5% Btu/yr Uncertainty for heater/reboilers: (Equation 4-6, relative uncertainties) U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel) 2 2 2 heater Units Capacity Days Urel = + + =± ( ) 2 2 2 ( ) heater 0 5 2 5.39% Btu/yr The uncertainty for the combined activity factor is calculated by applying Equation 4-4 and using the absolute uncertainty values. U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) U abs 2 2 AF Boiler Heater 6 2 6 2 6 ( ) AF = (0.155× 37,120× 10 ) + (0.0539× 49,392× 10 ) = 6,347× 10 Btu/yr 6 6,347×10 Btu/yr AF 6 ( ) Urel ( ) = 100% × =± 7.34% Btu/yr 86,512×10 Btu/yr As stated previously, the uncertainty in the emissions factor for N 2 O is determined by engineering judgment to be 150%. The uncertainty in the emissions factor for methane is 25% based on expert judgment. The uncertainty for emissions is calculated by applying Equation 4-6 and using the relative uncertainty values. Because it is not possible to have negative emissions, the lower bound uncertainty will be truncated at zero. As a result, the lower and upper bound uncertainties are estimated separately. 6 -6 86,512 × 10 Btu 1.0 × 10 tonne CH 4 E CH : × = 0.0865 tonnes CH 4 6 4 /yr yr 10 Btu ( ) Urel ( ) = U( rel) +U( rel ) = 7.34 + 25 =± 26.1% tonnes CH /yr) 2 2 2 2 emissions AF EF 4 6 -7 86,512 × 10 Btu 2.8 × 10 tonne N2O E NO= × = 0.0242 tonnes N 2 6 2O/yr yr 10 Btu ( ) U( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel ) = 7.34 + 150 =+ 150%, − 100% tonnes N O/yr 2 2 2 2 emissions AF EF 2 Pilot Version, September 2009 F-8
Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emissions from Boilers and Heater/Reboilers: The final step is to convert the emissions of CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O to a CO 2 e. Note there are no uncertainties for any of the GWPs, so the combined uncertainty is based on summing the individual emissions and applying Equation 4-4 (using absolute uncertainty values). Also, because the N 2 O uncertainty estimate is asymmetrical, separate upper and lower bound uncertainties are calculated for the CO 2 e. emissions. E CO2e ⎛ = + ⎜ × yr ⎝ yr tonne CH 5,200 tonne CO2 0.0865 tonne CH4 21 tonne CO2e ⎛0.0242 tonne N2O 310 tonne CO2e ⎞ + ⎜ × ⎟= ⎝ yr tonne N2O ⎠ 4 ⎞ ⎟ ⎠ 5,210 tonne CO2e/yr U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) +U( abs) 2 2 2 ECO2e ECO E 2 CH E 4 N2O U ( abs) E = (0.0878× 5,200) + (0.261× 21× 0.0865) + (1.50× 310× 0.0242) CO2e Upper: = 456 tonnes CO2e/yr ECO2e 456 tonnes CO2e/yr 5,210 tonnes CO2e/yr 2 2 2 Urel ( ) 100% 8.77% tonnes CO2e/yr = × =+ ( ) U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) +U( abs) 2 2 2 ECO2e ECO E 2 CH E 4 N2O U ( abs) E = ( − 0.0878× 5,200) + ( − 0.261× 21× 0.0865) + ( − 1.00× 310× 0.0242) CO2e Lower: = 456 tonnes CO2e/yr ECO2e 456 tonnes CO2e/yr 5,210 tonnes CO2e/yr 2 2 2 Urel ( ) 100% 8.77% tonnes CO2e/yr = × =− ( ) Uncertainty Estimate of CH 4 and N 2 O Emissions from Turbines: Here also, the natural gas emission factors for CH 4 and N 2 O are based on the energy consumed by the equipment. The fuel usage information from Table F-3 is first converted to an energy input basis. V 6 ⎛250× 10 scf 928 Btu ⎞ = ⎜ × ⎟ × ⎝ yr scf ⎠ 6 = 232,000 10 Btu/yr Then the emission factors are applied to estimated CH 4 and N 2 O emissions: Pilot Version, September 2009 F-9
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Prepared by the LEVON Group, LLC an
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Table of Contents SECTION Page FORE
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List of Tables SECTION Page 2-1 Ove
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FOREWORD The global oil and natural
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DOCUMENT AT A GLANCE This document
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1.0 INTRODUCTION Policymakers use e
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Clim
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2.0 SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY There ar
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Table 2-1. Overview of Methods Used
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the uncertainty associated with cur
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d. Data processing uncertainty Typi
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d. Material Balance For some emissi
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3.0 OVERVIEW OF MEASUREMENT PRACTIC
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3.1 Flow Measurement Practices Cont
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All these factors should be assesse
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Table 3-1. Example of FFMS Combined
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3.2 Uncertainties of Flow Measureme
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Table 3-3. Compilation of Specifica
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EXHIBIT 3-3: FACTORS TO CONSIDER WH
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3.3.2 Quantifying Sampling Precisio
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Table 3-4. Summary of Selected Carb
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3.5 Heat Content Determination The
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3.5.2 Computational Methods Heating
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using standard methods, non-standar
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0.6 0.4 0.2 Error 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6
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s ± t × (Equation 4-1) n where s
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4.2.1 Propagation Equations There a
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For two terms that might be correla
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EXHIBIT 4-1: Uncertainty Example fo
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Further guidance for assigning unce
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4.4 Quantifying Measurement Uncerta
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Are the data based on a single poin
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Two methods are compared. The first
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. EXHIBIT 4-6: Uncertainty Example
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Table 4-13 shows the uncertainty in
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Table 4-13. Comparison of Annual Em
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• The evolution of activity and e
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These guidelines concentrate solely
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(Reprinted from the API Compendium)
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Table 5-2. Onshore Oil Field (High
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associated with them are assigned b
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Table 5-4. Onshore Oil Field (High
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5.2.4 Propagating Assymetric Uncert
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U( rel) = U( rel) + U( rel) + U( re
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Coke burn rate approach (Equation 5
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Wt% C ∑ lbmole x lbmole C 12 lb C
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The CO 2 emissions are calculated u
Page 103 and 104: GHG Emissions, tonnes/yr 60,000 50,
Page 105 and 106: vast majority of the uncertainty fo
Page 107 and 108: 6.0 REFERENCES AGA, 2008, Greenhous
Page 109 and 110: The Alberta Energy and Utilities Bo
Page 111 and 112: Appendix A GLOSSARY OF STATISTICAL
Page 117 and 118: APPENDIX B LIST OF INDUSTRY MEASURE
Page 119 and 120: Chapter 2.8B Establishment of the L
Page 121 and 122: Chapter 11.5.3 Chapter 12.1.1 Chapt
Page 123 and 124: Chapter 19.4 Chapter 20.1 RP 85 RP
Page 125 and 126: ISO 8222:2002 ISO 8697:1999 ISO 902
Page 127 and 128: ISO 7194:2008 Measurement of fluid
Page 129 and 130: ASTM D4292 ASTM D4892 ASTM D5002 AS
Page 131 and 132: APPENDIX C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 133 and 134: Appendix C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 135 and 136: Appendix D SELECT MEASUREMENT METHO
Page 137 and 138: c. ASTM UOP539-97, Refinery Gas Ana
Page 139 and 140: interference between known componen
Page 141 and 142: maintained over the room temperatur
Page 143 and 144: APPENDIX E UNITS CONVERSION
Page 145 and 146: − Gasoline density (average) = 0.
Page 147 and 148: Appendix F UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION D
Page 149 and 150: The uncertainty for the heaters/reb
Page 151 and 152: ∑ 2 U ( abs) = U( abs) ∑(Wt%C)
Page 153: Combining the fuel usage for the tw
Page 157 and 158: U ( abs) = ( U ( abs) + U ( abs) +
Page 159 and 160: E E CO2e 219 tonne CO ⎛ 2 0.0108
Page 161 and 162: E CO 2 6 500× 10 scf gas lbmole ga
Page 163 and 164: • Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
Page 165 and 166: Upper: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs)
Page 167 and 168: default CH 4 content is 5.53% from
Page 169 and 170: Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
Page 171 and 172: ( ) Urel ( ) = Urel ( ) = Urel ( )
Page 173 and 174: Uncertainty Estimate for CH 4 and C
Page 175 and 176: specific mole % for CH 4 and CO 2 i
Page 177 and 178: E CO2 0.07239 tonne CH 4 tonne mole
Page 179 and 180: U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel
Page 181 and 182: Table F-14. Fugitive Emission and U
Page 183 and 184: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) +U( ab
Page 185 and 186: Table F-15. Onshore Oil Field (High
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