addressing uncertainty in oil and natural gas industry greenhouse

More documents

Recommendations

Info

EXHIBIT 4-4: Uncertainty Example for Single Flow Measurement, continued The following table shows the calculated aggregate uncertainty for the different values of the context-specific factors due to pressure and temperature corrections. Meter Measurement Uncertainty, 10 6 scf (1.5%) Table 4-5. Uncertainty in a Single Measurement Assigned Context Specific Uncertainty, % Context Specific Uncertainty, 10 6 scf (absolute) Bias, 10 6 scf (5 %) Single Measurement Total Uncertainty, 10 6 scf (absolute) Single Measurement Total Uncertainty, % 275 10 1,840 918 2,070 11.3% 275 25 4,590 918 4,690 25.5% 275 100 18,400 918 18,400 100% Example – Multiple Flow Measurements The next example demonstrates the uncertainty calculation for estimating CO 2 emissions resulting from the combustion of produced natural gas. Two methods are compared. The first calculates an annual average CO 2 emission factor based on monthly natural gas composition measurements and an annual summation of daily flow rates. The second determines a monthly CO 2 emission factor based on a monthly natural gas composition sample and applies a monthly summation of daily flow rates. EXHIBIT 4-5: Uncertainty Example for Multiple Flow Measurements Table 4-5 shows flow measurement data for produced natural gas that is routed to a combustion device. The fuel flow is measured continuously (scf/sec) with an orifice meter. A data acquisition system records the daily flow rate measurements. The daily and monthly totals are shown in Table 4-6. Uncertainty Assessment: Measurement uncertainty o o o o The total volume of gas combusted for this example results in an annual flow rate of 1,187×10 6 scf. Because the flow is measured continuously (with the total recorded daily), this is not considered a sampling of data so Equations 4-1 and 4-3 do not apply. From Section 3.2 Table 3-4, the random error that is expected for a properly installed and operated orifice meter is 1.5% (95% confidence interval) when the meter is operating at 30-100% of the measurement range. The context-specific factors discussed previously also apply for this example. Again, a sensitivity analysis is applied for the context-specific uncertainty values of 10%, 25%, and 100%. As with the Single Flow Measurement example, expert judgment was used to assign a 5% bias in the measurement. Pilot Version, September 2009 4-19
EXHIBIT 4-5: Uncertainty Example for Multiple Flow Measurements, continued Table 4-6. Flow Measurements (in Mscf/day) Day Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1 3,374 2,344 3,102 3,483 3,321 3,530 2,974 3,484 3,559 3,269 3,239 3,344 2 3,403 2,373 3,329 3,471 3,331 3,518 3,033 3,400 3,494 3,365 3,210 3,231 3 3,381 2,235 3,406 3,530 3,342 3,480 3,254 3,372 3,503 3,236 3,207 3,275 4 3,319 2,276 3,419 3,606 3,335 3,460 3,417 3,406 3,679 3,162 3,132 3,402 5 3,299 2,319 3,555 3,597 3,342 3,503 3,329 3,385 3,636 3,240 3,107 3,570 6 3,173 2,215 3,737 3,501 3,342 3,487 3,034 3,393 3,604 3,233 3,047 3,364 7 3,182 2,459 3,711 3,486 3,378 3,463 2,915 3,449 3,601 3,239 3,060 3,209 8 3,257 2,288 3,771 3,441 3,253 3,323 3,007 3,370 3,541 3,370 3,101 3,344 9 2,985 2,572 3,806 3,400 3,320 3,253 3,158 3,506 3,544 3,347 2,969 3,286 10 3,022 2,433 3,507 3,348 3,301 3,551 3,330 3,412 3,507 3,433 2,901 3,158 11 2,830 2,769 3,340 3,305 3,332 3,478 3,198 3,464 3,557 3,458 3,154 3,186 12 2,914 2,640 3,328 3,370 3,395 3,510 3,262 3,449 3,459 3,405 3,425 3,037 13 2,864 2,431 3,377 3,452 3,348 3,471 3,263 3,341 3,518 3,424 3,488 2,834 14 2,641 2,767 3,432 3,467 3,246 3,302 3,339 3,435 3,484 3,389 3,323 2,849 15 2,647 2,687 3,390 3,465 3,229 3,534 3,158 3,489 3,418 3,397 3,234 2,819 16 2,519 2,888 3,424 3,579 3,322 3,590 3,188 3,468 3,404 3,404 3,434 2,901 17 2,670 2,912 3,432 3,605 3,344 3,475 3,239 3,369 3,425 3,404 3,381 2,807 18 2,482 3,006 3,424 3,543 3,387 3,445 3,114 3,409 3,417 3,407 3,376 2,892 19 2,569 3,089 3,522 3,477 3,356 3,520 3,225 3,362 3,468 3,216 3,382 2,942 20 2,320 3,299 3,444 3,335 3,136 3,561 3,220 3,356 3,474 3,233 3,389 2,915 21 2,405 3,401 3,551 3,545 3,291 3,449 3,122 3,488 3,483 3,295 3,420 2,968 22 2,368 2,945 3,436 3,486 3,463 3,389 2,830 3,374 3,466 3,200 3,464 2,982 23 2,287 3,147 3,495 3,460 3,430 3,474 2,962 3,296 3,447 3,257 3,463 2,942 24 2,277 3,398 3,446 3,461 3,405 3,351 3,546 3,330 3,355 3,282 3,410 3,028 25 2,214 3,521 3,563 3,530 3,430 3,352 3,333 3,422 3,371 3,241 3,346 3,089 26 2,168 3,414 3,511 3,424 3,472 3,316 3,373 3,308 3,383 3,188 3,434 2,963 27 2,216 3,241 3,392 3,482 3,555 3,269 3,516 3,302 3,384 3,177 3,480 2,891 28 2,306 3,206 3,246 3,295 3,550 3,262 3,564 3,483 3,369 3,222 3,307 2,954 29 2,091 3,394 3,336 3,543 3,297 3,547 3,553 3,376 3,300 3,244 3,113 30 2,108 3,489 3,345 3,555 3,262 3,564 3,593 3,304 3,240 3,305 3,047 31 2,209 3,470 3,537 3,611 3,557 3,241 2,972 Total, 10 3 scf/ month 83,500 78,275 107,449 103,825 104,590 102,874 100,624 106,027 104,232 102,277 98,432 95,313 o Since the uncertainties associated with the meter, the context-specific factors, and the bias are independent (there is no autocorrelation), we can apply Equation 4-4 to estimate the uncertainty. The absolute uncertainties are used in this equation. The results are shown in Table 4-7 below. December ∑ 2 2 2 ( ) U ( abs) = U + U + U Year Measurementi context specifici Biasi i= January Pilot Version, September 2009 4-20
Page 1 and 2:
Prepared by the LEVON Group, LLC an
Page 3 and 4:
Table of Contents SECTION Page FORE
Page 5 and 6:
List of Tables SECTION Page 2-1 Ove
Page 7 and 8:
FOREWORD The global oil and natural
Page 9 and 10:
DOCUMENT AT A GLANCE This document
Page 11 and 12:
1.0 INTRODUCTION Policymakers use e
Page 13 and 14:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Clim
Page 15 and 16: 2.0 SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY There ar
Page 17 and 18: Table 2-1. Overview of Methods Used
Page 19 and 20: the uncertainty associated with cur
Page 21 and 22: d. Data processing uncertainty Typi
Page 23 and 24: d. Material Balance For some emissi
Page 25 and 26: 3.0 OVERVIEW OF MEASUREMENT PRACTIC
Page 27 and 28: 3.1 Flow Measurement Practices Cont
Page 29 and 30: All these factors should be assesse
Page 31 and 32: Table 3-1. Example of FFMS Combined
Page 33 and 34: 3.2 Uncertainties of Flow Measureme
Page 35 and 36: Table 3-3. Compilation of Specifica
Page 37 and 38: EXHIBIT 3-3: FACTORS TO CONSIDER WH
Page 39 and 40: 3.3.2 Quantifying Sampling Precisio
Page 41 and 42: Table 3-4. Summary of Selected Carb
Page 43 and 44: 3.5 Heat Content Determination The
Page 45 and 46: 3.5.2 Computational Methods Heating
Page 47 and 48: using standard methods, non-standar
Page 49 and 50: 0.6 0.4 0.2 Error 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6
Page 51 and 52: s ± t × (Equation 4-1) n where s
Page 53 and 54: 4.2.1 Propagation Equations There a
Page 55 and 56: For two terms that might be correla
Page 57 and 58: EXHIBIT 4-1: Uncertainty Example fo
Page 61 and 62: Further guidance for assigning unce
Page 63 and 64: 4.4 Quantifying Measurement Uncerta
Page 65: EXHIBIT 4-4: Uncertainty Example fo
Page 69 and 70: Are the data based on a single poin
Page 71 and 72: Two methods are compared. The first
Page 73 and 74: . EXHIBIT 4-6: Uncertainty Example
Page 77 and 78: Table 4-13 shows the uncertainty in
Page 79 and 80: Table 4-13. Comparison of Annual Em
Page 81 and 82: • The evolution of activity and e
Page 83 and 84: These guidelines concentrate solely
Page 85 and 86: (Reprinted from the API Compendium)
Page 87 and 88: Table 5-2. Onshore Oil Field (High
Page 89 and 90: associated with them are assigned b
Page 91 and 92: Table 5-4. Onshore Oil Field (High
Page 93 and 94: 5.2.4 Propagating Assymetric Uncert
Page 95 and 96: U( rel) = U( rel) + U( rel) + U( re
Page 97 and 98: Coke burn rate approach (Equation 5
Page 99 and 100: Wt% C ∑ lbmole x lbmole C 12 lb C
Page 101 and 102: The CO 2 emissions are calculated u
Page 103 and 104: GHG Emissions, tonnes/yr 60,000 50,
Page 105 and 106: vast majority of the uncertainty fo
Page 107 and 108: 6.0 REFERENCES AGA, 2008, Greenhous
Page 109 and 110: The Alberta Energy and Utilities Bo
Page 111 and 112: Appendix A GLOSSARY OF STATISTICAL
Page 117 and 118:
APPENDIX B LIST OF INDUSTRY MEASURE
Page 119 and 120:
Chapter 2.8B Establishment of the L
Page 121 and 122:
Chapter 11.5.3 Chapter 12.1.1 Chapt
Page 123 and 124:
Chapter 19.4 Chapter 20.1 RP 85 RP
Page 125 and 126:
ISO 8222:2002 ISO 8697:1999 ISO 902
Page 127 and 128:
ISO 7194:2008 Measurement of fluid
Page 129 and 130:
ASTM D4292 ASTM D4892 ASTM D5002 AS
Page 131 and 132:
APPENDIX C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 133 and 134:
Appendix C OPERATING CONDITIONS, IN
Page 135 and 136:
Appendix D SELECT MEASUREMENT METHO
Page 137 and 138:
c. ASTM UOP539-97, Refinery Gas Ana
Page 139 and 140:
interference between known componen
Page 141 and 142:
maintained over the room temperatur
Page 143 and 144:
APPENDIX E UNITS CONVERSION
Page 145 and 146:
− Gasoline density (average) = 0.
Page 147 and 148:
Appendix F UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION D
Page 149 and 150:
The uncertainty for the heaters/reb
Page 151 and 152:
∑ 2 U ( abs) = U( abs) ∑(Wt%C)
Page 153 and 154:
Combining the fuel usage for the tw
Page 155 and 156:
Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
Page 157 and 158:
U ( abs) = ( U ( abs) + U ( abs) +
Page 159 and 160:
E E CO2e 219 tonne CO ⎛ 2 0.0108
Page 161 and 162:
E CO 2 6 500× 10 scf gas lbmole ga
Page 163 and 164:
• Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
Page 165 and 166:
Upper: U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs)
Page 167 and 168:
default CH 4 content is 5.53% from
Page 169 and 170:
Uncertainty Estimate of CO 2 e Emis
Page 171 and 172:
( ) Urel ( ) = Urel ( ) = Urel ( )
Page 173 and 174:
Uncertainty Estimate for CH 4 and C
Page 175 and 176:
specific mole % for CH 4 and CO 2 i
Page 177 and 178:
E CO2 0.07239 tonne CH 4 tonne mole
Page 179 and 180:
U ( rel) = U( rel) +U( rel) +U( rel
Page 181 and 182:
Table F-14. Fugitive Emission and U
Page 183 and 184:
U ( abs) = (U( abs) +U( abs) +U( ab
Page 185 and 186:
Table F-15. Onshore Oil Field (High
show all

addressing uncertainty in oil and natural gas industry greenhouse

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?