Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future - Strategic ...

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62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty Demarcation and Succession Agreements: Background and Issues,” CRS Report to Congress, April 27, 2000, available from www.cnie.org/nle/ crsreports/international/inter-68.cfm. 63. Putin’s short statement in response to the American withdrawal announcement made the following points: “The U.S. has the legitimate right to abandon the Treaty in accordance with its provisions; though an American ‘mistake’ the withdrawal decision does not create immediate threats to Russian security; abandonment of the ABM Treaty leads to the emergence of a legal vacuum in the elaborate system of agreements in the sphere of disarmament and the nonproliferation; that ‘vacuum’ should be filled up by rapid elaboration of a ‘new framework’ of strategic mutual relations; under that ‘framework’ considerable reductions of offensive weapons should take place (preferably to the level of 1,500-2,200 warheads for each side).” See Vadim Markushin, “Bad News for the World Community,” Krasnaya Zvezda, December 15, 2001, in Russian. 64. Menshikov. 65. “Russian Reaction to NATO’s Enlargement,” Analitik, March 4, 2004, in Russian, available from analitik.org.ua/ukr/current-comment/ext/407412da4f691/pagedoc1095_25/. 66. “The SOR Treaty calls for the reduction of the strategic nuclear warheads of both Russia and the United States by the end of 2012 to 1,700-2,200, i.e., approximately by three times compared to the level provided by the START 1 Treaty. START 1 itself is to remain in force until December 5, 2009, and may then be extended. The SOR Treaty ensures continuity in disarmament and arms control in the conditions when the ABM Treaty has ceased to be operative, the question of the entry of the START II Treaty into force has fallen away, and other disarmament agreements are undergoing serious trials. The new Treaty was called upon to assist substantially the strengthening of the nonproliferation regime as well.” See “Statement by Alexander Konuzin, Deputy Permanent Representative of Russia to the United Nations, at the Session of the UN Commission on Disarmament Held on April 1, 2003.” SORT was ratified by the Duma on May 14, 2003 by votes of 294 deputies with 134 voting against and none abstaining. 151
67. See Nikolai Sokov, “The Russian Nuclear Arms Control Agenda After SORT,” Arms Control Today, April 2003, available from www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_04/sokov_apr03.asp. 68. While keeping a competitive posture on strategic weapons, Russia is prepared to play a partnership role with the United States in curbing WMD proliferation and other areas where both nations face similar challenges and threats. For example, in July 2006, Presidents of both countries launched the joint Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism aimed “to prevent the acquisition, transport, or use by terrorists of nuclear materials and radioactive substances or improvised explosive devices using such materials, as well as hostile actions against nuclear facilities.” “Joint Statement by U.S. President George Bush and Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin announcing the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism,” St. Petersburg, Russia, July 15, 2006, President of Russia Official Web Portal, available from www.kremlin.ru/eng/text/docs/2006/07/108727.shtml. 69. Yevgenii Kozhokhin, “U.S.-Russian Relations: Facts and Mutual Expectations,” IAIR Publication, December 2002, in Russian, available from www.ipmi.ru/html_en/publication_en/m_ en/06_%20_1_december_2002_en.htm. 70. According to Nikolai Sokov: “Coupled with the end of the ABM Treaty and START 2, SORT marks the end of traditional arms control. Further reductions are unlikely in the near future because, after SORT is implemented, the United States and Russia will have reached what they feel is the optimal (or close to the optimal) level of strategic arsenals that they need: 2,200 deployed warheads for the United States and 1,500 for Russia. One possible additional step is codification of the ongoing reduction of Russian nonstrategic nuclear weapons, but its chances are remote. More importantly, managing first-strike capability, which was the key motive of traditional arms control, is no longer urgent following the end of the Cold War.” See Nikolai Sokov, “The Russian Nuclear Arms Control Agenda After SORT,” Arms Control Today, April, 2003. 152
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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
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INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
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future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
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CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
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States (CIS). For a number of reaso
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with nuclear weapons alone. General
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cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
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PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
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sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
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its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
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The words about the priority of nuc
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If the constant failures by the Bul
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LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
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prepare themselves against.” 51 A
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that day the directorates were enga
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USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
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2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
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28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
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53. “The Military Doctrine of the
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mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
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1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
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Implementation. Chief of the Genera
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has not been followed by any obviou
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ficers compared with society and th
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Many of these challenges are unlike
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Institute, examined some of these i
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of brigades in the table of organiz
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The performance of the brigades, fo
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employment will be effective when t
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RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
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The Search for the “New:” Defin
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on states; individual states violat
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almost verbatim. The third threat,
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ministry working group. Army-Genera
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Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
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Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
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identifying the intentions and fore
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
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United States, Russia is in a diffe
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mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
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Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
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as among Alliance members, future B
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in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
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fearing that, unless handled sensit
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of strategic engagement with Russia
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6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
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28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
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44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
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Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
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Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
Page 112 and 113: tary and foreign policy, many polit
Page 114 and 115: In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
Page 116 and 117: 1970s had long-term effects on late
Page 118 and 119: ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
Page 120 and 121: educing strategic armaments and eve
Page 122 and 123: Internationally, the RF earned a du
Page 124 and 125: itary-political relations with West
Page 126 and 127: The situation in the armed forces t
Page 128 and 129: The Russian Federation reserves the
Page 130 and 131: In the latter case, they expected o
Page 132 and 133: As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
Page 134 and 135: facilitate the elimination of weapo
Page 136 and 137: Putin saw added opportunities for p
Page 138 and 139: the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
Page 140 and 141: sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
Page 142 and 143: and NATO provocations.” In partic
Page 144 and 145: econsider its key postulates. Alrea
Page 146 and 147: CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
Page 148 and 149: eady developing the theory of strat
Page 150 and 151: termination of the Cold War and the
Page 152 and 153: goals and the promise “to extend
Page 154 and 155: • Reforms of the army, law-enforc
Page 156 and 157: 5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
Page 158 and 159: 29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
Page 160 and 161: 45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
Page 164 and 165: 71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
Page 166 and 167: 90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
Page 168 and 169: lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
Page 170: 125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
Page 173 and 174: The positive shift in relations coi
Page 175 and 176: and in other public statements that
Page 177 and 178: tagonist of the cause for dismantli
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Page 181 and 182: Since the collapse of the Union of
Page 183 and 184: avoid the need to act on this rheto
Page 185 and 186: the technology behind its modern ai
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Page 189 and 190: to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
Page 191 and 192: Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
Page 193 and 194: 10. A more detailed analysis of thi
Page 195 and 196: analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
Page 198 and 199: CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
Page 200 and 201: ery vehicles is apparently below th
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Page 204 and 205: that they could theoretically affec
Page 206 and 207: cause Russia can respond with nucle
Page 208 and 209: states, and Nordic countries to tha
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as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
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cautious attitude toward missile de
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few years later, demonstrated that
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exercises since 1999. All of them w
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2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
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fewer paragraphs about the use of n
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Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
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and verifiable treaty on TNW was at
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ity is regarded as an advantage tha
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tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
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The pace and the success rate for e
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Even more remote is the plan to dev
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construction of the first submarine
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tion of that leg was still minimal.
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where between Tu-22M3 and heavy bom
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weapons guarantee Russia’s securi
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of information about plans turned o
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Quite paradoxically, another, equal
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troversy over missile defense. In h
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A positive element in all the confl
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from submarines is likely to compli
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2005, two more are close to complet
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time) is practically never mentione
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from Alaska, “but they will not b
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porting of an even more expensive p
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5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
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20. A. Khryapin and V. Afanasiev,
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(“The God of War Does Not Retire
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50. For a recent statement to that
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closely fit one of first strike sce
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CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
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completely out of proportion to its
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its conventional military force to
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especially in the strategic nuclear
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in the NSS and brings it close to h
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wars. However, given expressions of
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equate command and control capabili
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weapons. The number of commands and
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upgraded warplanes, 20 to 25 milita
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the fact that the economy and infra
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The threat environment fabricated b
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There are aspects to their nuclear
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that are likely to result in greate
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ope. Recently, Moscow even objected
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8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broa
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31. Colonel General Alexander Zelin
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policy context, suggests that very
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Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
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systems, our partners may come to f
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increased purchases of weapons and
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naval bases. 27 Yet the defense sec
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state expenditures will supposedly
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THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
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Not only did Serdyukov accept this
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the Strategic Missile (Rocket) Forc
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fight using such weapons. Consequen
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the global and regional levels enta
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ate risks for Russia.” 74 But sin
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Neither is this just rhetoric. As o
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Since then Deputy Foreign Minister
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The radical changes that have occur
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tary’s viewpoint. Patrushev told
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In responding to a question from Pu
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strike even in a preventive or pree
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longer guarantee a retaliatory resp
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tive entourages. Such trends are da
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standpoint its perception is a vali
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this problem and make the Fleet Rus
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tedly self-inflated status that it
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The following analysis from 2004 to
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Consequently, 162 Vasilenko also st
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inferiority vis-à-vis U.S. and Chi
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eductions will continue. Most likel
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If Russian leaders are to decrease
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14. “Failure to build a professio
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37. Moscow, Russia, Interfax-AVN On
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59. Open Source Committee, OSC Anal
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78. Open Source Center, “Russians
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99. “Russia To Allocate $35.3 Bil
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121. Jussi Kontinen, “Russia Plan
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143. Litovkin, “We Didn’t Send
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nid Ivashov on Russian Foreign Poli
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Sixth, Russian policymakers can iss
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U.S. surface ships and attack subma
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arsenal, as well as approximately a
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the Russian military has continued
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heads, instead it is possible to ma
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it endangers the Russian state (a p
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particular, Russian Government repr
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Poland will once again come under i
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to host U.S. BMD facilities, Russia
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systems. U.S. ballistic missile and
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Russian Government abandoned its de
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Later that year, Putin told leading
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a U.S.-NATO attack. In his May 2006
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The Obama administration also decid
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treaty monitoring by prohibiting ac
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The main Russian military newspaper
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more secure locations. 80 Russian o
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Any proposals for increased transpa
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emaining props of Russia’s great
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many and Japan in the generations a
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2010, available from news.kremlin.r
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32. Cited in Peter Finn, “Antimis
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48. Viktor Myasnikov, Vladimir Ivan
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asp?SHORTCUT=695; John Edwards and
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81. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
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CHAPTER 9 NEW START AND NONPROLIFER
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number of launchers to a maximum of
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U.S. plan for missile defenses depl
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tual deployment of weapons for conv
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and Air Force. 20 Russia’s need f
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war. The conflict also served as a
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Brazil, China, Japan, South Korea,
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perceived battlefield desperation.
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(CBT); to mobilize international su
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linear to nonlinear strategies for
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Data Analysis. Current and New STAR
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Using the numbers in Table 3-1 as p
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Figure 9-2. Russian Surviving and R
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The results summarized in Figures 9
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intended as predictions of actual f
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CONCLUSION New START and other mani
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ty,” Opening Statement before the
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Talbott, “A better base for cutti
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20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Me
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35. “Military dangers” create c
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and Future of Nuclear Weapons, New
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CHAPTER 10 RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POSTU
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Russian foreign policy commentary o
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jor component of Russia’s geostra
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many in 1941, Gareev pointed to the
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By the spring of 2009, a number of
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structures, early warning systems,
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ghanistan, were part of an effort t
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design bureau in Moscow and the pro
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weapons by India and Pakistan in 19
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Kuril islands. In both Manchuria an
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There were, of course, all sorts of
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Australian experts concluded was fi
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however, Chinese military moderniza
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cise, General Makarov stated that:
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commitment to make Russia into an i
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cruiser Petr Velikii to observe a m
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as effectively defenseless against
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nal threats, but the real problem i
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cused Khramchikhin of “playing wi
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that included not only the Russian
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27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
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47. This process has been addressed
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66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
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terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
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editor of Military Affairs, as assi
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and the Institute of World Economy
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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