Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future - Strategic ...

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50. For a recent statement to that effect, see, for example, a statement of the new SRF Commander Andrey Shvaichenko: “Udarnaya Gruppirovka RVSN Budet na 80 Protsentov Sostoyat iz Novykh Raket,” RIA-Novosti, October 12, 2009. 51. “RF Sozdast Novuyu Tyazheluyu Ballisticheskuyu Raketu na Smeny Kompleksu ‘Voyevoda’,” RIA-Novosti December 16, 2009. 52. “Sredstva na RVSN Sostavlyayut Okolo Treti Finansirovaniya Yadernoi Triady,” RIA-Novosti, December 8, 2009. 53. “Raketnye Kompleksy RVSN Sposobny Preodolevat Noveishuyu PRO SShA,” RIA-Novosti, September 10, 2009. 54. Yuri Zaitsev, “Ot RSM-40 do ‘Sinevy’,” RIA-Novosti, March 11, 2009. 55. “Prichinoi Neudachnogo Puska ‘Bulavy’ Yavlyaetsya Konstruktorskaya Oshibka,” RIA-Novosti, January 12, 2010. 56. Dmitri Litovkin, “’Bulavu’ Ispytayut Osenyu,” Izvestia, May 24, 2010. 57. ‘Solomonov Obyasnil Neudachi ‘Bulavy’,” Voeno-Promyshlennyi Kurier, No. 9, 2010. 58. “Lvinaya Dolya Buydgeta MO Idet VMF, v Osnovnom Yadernym Silam—Ivanov,” RIA-Novosti, June 3, 2009. 59. For an overview of the aspects of major military exercises relevant to the analysis of nuclear doctrine, see Nikolai Sokov, ‘‘Significant Military Maneuvers,’’ Part V of Issue Brief: Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine, August 2004, available from www.nti.org/e_research/e3_55a.html. 60. “Dalnaya Aviatsiya: Perspektivy Strategicheskikh Mashin,” RIA-Novosti, December 23, 2009. 61. ‘‘Rossiya Perenapravit Rakety’’ (“Russia Will Retarget Missiles”), Vzglyad, February 19, 2007. 257
62. RIA-Novosti, July 24, 2008 63. Ibid., May 27, 2008; Vadim Udmantsev, “Pautina Vokrug Granits,” VPK, June 4-10, 2008. 64. Interview Iranskomu Gosteleradio i Informatsionnomu Agentstvu IRNA (An Interview with the Iranian TV, an Information Agency IRNA), October 16, 2007, Official Website of the President of the Russian Federation, available from president.kremlin. ru/text/appear/2007/10/148471.shtml. 65. For details, see Nikolai Sokov, “Moscow Rejects U.S. Written Proposals on Missile Defense, Downplays New Iranian Missile Test,” WMD Insights, February 2008. 66. “PRO SShA v Nyneshnem Sostoyanii ‘Ne Volnuet’ Rossiiskikh Voennykh—Genstab,” RIA-Novosti, April 12, 2010. 67. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Otlozhennyi Protivoraketnyi Krizis,” Nezavisimaya Gazeta, April 20, 2010. 68. “Rossiya Skazhet ‘Da’ Predlozheniyu NATO po PRO, Esli Predlozhenie Seryoznie,” RIA-Novosti, April 26, 2010. 69. “Rossiya i SShA Mogut Sozdat Sovmestnuyu PRO v Evrope Protiv Irana,” RIA-Novosti, September 21, 2009. 70. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Otlozhennyi Protivoraketnyi Krizis,” Nezavisimaya Gazeta, April 20, 2010. 71. Aleksei Arbatov, “Strategicheskii Surrealizm Somnitelnykh Kontseptsii,” Nezavisimoe Voennoe Obozrenie, March 5, 2010. 72. Vladimir Ivanov, “Vashington Shagnul v Bezyadernyi Mir,” Nezavisimoe Voennoe Obozrenie, April 16, 2010; Dmitri Ruyrikov, “…Plus Bystryi Globalnyi Udar,” Voennoe-Promyshlennyi Kurier, No. 10, 2010. 73. The 1995 “Black Brunt” incident, when a single Norwegian research rocket triggered a false alarm in the Russian strategic command and control system, serves as a reminder that this concern is not pure imagination: as it turned out later, the rocket 258
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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
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INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
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future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
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CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
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States (CIS). For a number of reaso
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with nuclear weapons alone. General
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cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
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PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
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sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
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its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
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The words about the priority of nuc
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If the constant failures by the Bul
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LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
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prepare themselves against.” 51 A
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that day the directorates were enga
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USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
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2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
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28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
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53. “The Military Doctrine of the
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mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
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1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
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Implementation. Chief of the Genera
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has not been followed by any obviou
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ficers compared with society and th
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Many of these challenges are unlike
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Institute, examined some of these i
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of brigades in the table of organiz
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The performance of the brigades, fo
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employment will be effective when t
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RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
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The Search for the “New:” Defin
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on states; individual states violat
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almost verbatim. The third threat,
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ministry working group. Army-Genera
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Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
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Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
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identifying the intentions and fore
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
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United States, Russia is in a diffe
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mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
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Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
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as among Alliance members, future B
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in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
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fearing that, unless handled sensit
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of strategic engagement with Russia
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6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
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28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
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44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
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Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
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Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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tary and foreign policy, many polit
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In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
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1970s had long-term effects on late
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ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
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educing strategic armaments and eve
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Internationally, the RF earned a du
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itary-political relations with West
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The situation in the armed forces t
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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In the latter case, they expected o
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As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
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facilitate the elimination of weapo
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Putin saw added opportunities for p
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the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
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sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
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and NATO provocations.” In partic
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econsider its key postulates. Alrea
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CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
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eady developing the theory of strat
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termination of the Cold War and the
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goals and the promise “to extend
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• Reforms of the army, law-enforc
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5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
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29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
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45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
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62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
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71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
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90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
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lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
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125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
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The positive shift in relations coi
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and in other public statements that
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tagonist of the cause for dismantli
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mobilization. 11 It is possible to
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Since the collapse of the Union of
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avoid the need to act on this rheto
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the technology behind its modern ai
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duumvirate might be modified or aba
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to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
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Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
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10. A more detailed analysis of thi
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analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
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CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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ery vehicles is apparently below th
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out as to whether it will be able t
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that they could theoretically affec
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cause Russia can respond with nucle
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states, and Nordic countries to tha
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should be more properly translated
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as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
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cautious attitude toward missile de
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few years later, demonstrated that
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Page 220 and 221: 2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
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Page 230 and 231: tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
Page 232 and 233: The pace and the success rate for e
Page 234 and 235: Even more remote is the plan to dev
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Page 238 and 239: tion of that leg was still minimal.
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Page 246 and 247: Quite paradoxically, another, equal
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Page 250 and 251: A positive element in all the confl
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Page 258 and 259: from Alaska, “but they will not b
Page 260 and 261: porting of an even more expensive p
Page 262 and 263: 5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
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Page 270 and 271: closely fit one of first strike sce
Page 272 and 273: CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
Page 274 and 275: completely out of proportion to its
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Page 278 and 279: especially in the strategic nuclear
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Page 282 and 283: wars. However, given expressions of
Page 284 and 285: equate command and control capabili
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Page 290 and 291: the fact that the economy and infra
Page 292 and 293: The threat environment fabricated b
Page 294 and 295: There are aspects to their nuclear
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Page 305 and 306: policy context, suggests that very
Page 307 and 308: Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
Page 309 and 310: systems, our partners may come to f
Page 311 and 312: increased purchases of weapons and
Page 313 and 314: naval bases. 27 Yet the defense sec
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Page 317 and 318: THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
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Not only did Serdyukov accept this
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the Strategic Missile (Rocket) Forc
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fight using such weapons. Consequen
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the global and regional levels enta
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ate risks for Russia.” 74 But sin
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Neither is this just rhetoric. As o
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Since then Deputy Foreign Minister
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The radical changes that have occur
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tary’s viewpoint. Patrushev told
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In responding to a question from Pu
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strike even in a preventive or pree
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longer guarantee a retaliatory resp
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tive entourages. Such trends are da
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standpoint its perception is a vali
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this problem and make the Fleet Rus
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tedly self-inflated status that it
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The following analysis from 2004 to
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Consequently, 162 Vasilenko also st
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inferiority vis-à-vis U.S. and Chi
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eductions will continue. Most likel
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If Russian leaders are to decrease
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14. “Failure to build a professio
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37. Moscow, Russia, Interfax-AVN On
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59. Open Source Committee, OSC Anal
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78. Open Source Center, “Russians
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99. “Russia To Allocate $35.3 Bil
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121. Jussi Kontinen, “Russia Plan
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143. Litovkin, “We Didn’t Send
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nid Ivashov on Russian Foreign Poli
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Sixth, Russian policymakers can iss
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U.S. surface ships and attack subma
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arsenal, as well as approximately a
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the Russian military has continued
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heads, instead it is possible to ma
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it endangers the Russian state (a p
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particular, Russian Government repr
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Poland will once again come under i
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to host U.S. BMD facilities, Russia
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systems. U.S. ballistic missile and
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Russian Government abandoned its de
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Later that year, Putin told leading
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a U.S.-NATO attack. In his May 2006
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The Obama administration also decid
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treaty monitoring by prohibiting ac
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The main Russian military newspaper
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more secure locations. 80 Russian o
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Any proposals for increased transpa
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emaining props of Russia’s great
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many and Japan in the generations a
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2010, available from news.kremlin.r
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32. Cited in Peter Finn, “Antimis
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48. Viktor Myasnikov, Vladimir Ivan
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asp?SHORTCUT=695; John Edwards and
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81. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
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CHAPTER 9 NEW START AND NONPROLIFER
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number of launchers to a maximum of
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U.S. plan for missile defenses depl
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tual deployment of weapons for conv
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and Air Force. 20 Russia’s need f
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war. The conflict also served as a
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Brazil, China, Japan, South Korea,
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perceived battlefield desperation.
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(CBT); to mobilize international su
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linear to nonlinear strategies for
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Data Analysis. Current and New STAR
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Using the numbers in Table 3-1 as p
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Figure 9-2. Russian Surviving and R
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The results summarized in Figures 9
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intended as predictions of actual f
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CONCLUSION New START and other mani
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ty,” Opening Statement before the
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Talbott, “A better base for cutti
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20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Me
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35. “Military dangers” create c
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and Future of Nuclear Weapons, New
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CHAPTER 10 RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POSTU
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Russian foreign policy commentary o
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jor component of Russia’s geostra
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many in 1941, Gareev pointed to the
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By the spring of 2009, a number of
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structures, early warning systems,
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ghanistan, were part of an effort t
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design bureau in Moscow and the pro
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weapons by India and Pakistan in 19
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Kuril islands. In both Manchuria an
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There were, of course, all sorts of
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Australian experts concluded was fi
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however, Chinese military moderniza
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cise, General Makarov stated that:
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commitment to make Russia into an i
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cruiser Petr Velikii to observe a m
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as effectively defenseless against
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nal threats, but the real problem i
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cused Khramchikhin of “playing wi
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that included not only the Russian
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27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
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47. This process has been addressed
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66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
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terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
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editor of Military Affairs, as assi
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and the Institute of World Economy
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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