Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future - Strategic ...

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Strategic Studies Institute Book RUSSIAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE Stephen J. Blank Editor November 2011 The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. Authors of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications enjoy full academic freedom, provided they do not disclose classified information, jeopardize operations security, or misrepresent official U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empowers them to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives in the interest of furthering debate on key issues. This report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited. ***** This publication is subject to Title 17, United States Code, Sections 101 and 105. It is in the public domain and may not be copyrighted.
***** Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 632 Wright Ave, Carlisle, PA 17013-5046. ***** All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications may be downloaded free of charge from the SSI website. Hard copies of this report may also be obtained free of charge while supplies last by placing an order on the SSI website. The SSI website address is: www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil. ***** The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter to update the national security community on the research of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newsletter also provides a strategic commentary by one of our research analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please subscribe on the SSI website at www.StrategicStudiesInstitute. army.mil/newsletter/. ISBN 1-58487-504-6 ii
Page 1: Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
Page 5 and 6: Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
Page 8 and 9: INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
Page 10 and 11: future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
Page 12 and 13: CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
Page 14 and 15: States (CIS). For a number of reaso
Page 16 and 17: with nuclear weapons alone. General
Page 18 and 19: cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
Page 20 and 21: PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
Page 22 and 23: sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
Page 24 and 25: its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
Page 26 and 27: The words about the priority of nuc
Page 28 and 29: If the constant failures by the Bul
Page 30 and 31: LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
Page 32 and 33: prepare themselves against.” 51 A
Page 34 and 35: that day the directorates were enga
Page 36 and 37: USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
Page 38 and 39: 2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
Page 40 and 41: 28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
Page 42: 53. “The Military Doctrine of the
Page 45 and 46: mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
Page 47 and 48: 1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
Page 49 and 50: Implementation. Chief of the Genera
Page 51 and 52: has not been followed by any obviou
Page 53 and 54:
ficers compared with society and th
Page 55 and 56:
Many of these challenges are unlike
Page 57 and 58:
Institute, examined some of these i
Page 59 and 60:
of brigades in the table of organiz
Page 61 and 62:
The performance of the brigades, fo
Page 63 and 64:
employment will be effective when t
Page 65 and 66:
RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
Page 67 and 68:
The Search for the “New:” Defin
Page 69 and 70:
on states; individual states violat
Page 71 and 72:
almost verbatim. The third threat,
Page 73 and 74:
ministry working group. Army-Genera
Page 75 and 76:
Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
Page 77 and 78:
Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
Page 79 and 80:
identifying the intentions and fore
Page 81 and 82:
The Russian Federation reserves the
Page 83 and 84:
the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
Page 85 and 86:
United States, Russia is in a diffe
Page 87 and 88:
mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
Page 89 and 90:
Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
Page 91 and 92:
as among Alliance members, future B
Page 93 and 94:
in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
Page 95 and 96:
fearing that, unless handled sensit
Page 97 and 98:
of strategic engagement with Russia
Page 99 and 100:
6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
Page 101 and 102:
28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
Page 103 and 104:
44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
Page 105 and 106:
Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
Page 107 and 108:
Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
Page 112 and 113:
tary and foreign policy, many polit
Page 114 and 115:
In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
Page 116 and 117:
1970s had long-term effects on late
Page 118 and 119:
ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
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educing strategic armaments and eve
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Internationally, the RF earned a du
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itary-political relations with West
Page 126 and 127:
The situation in the armed forces t
Page 128 and 129:
The Russian Federation reserves the
Page 130 and 131:
In the latter case, they expected o
Page 132 and 133:
As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
Page 134 and 135:
facilitate the elimination of weapo
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Putin saw added opportunities for p
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the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
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sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
Page 142 and 143:
and NATO provocations.” In partic
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econsider its key postulates. Alrea
Page 146 and 147:
CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
Page 148 and 149:
eady developing the theory of strat
Page 150 and 151:
termination of the Cold War and the
Page 152 and 153:
goals and the promise “to extend
Page 154 and 155:
• Reforms of the army, law-enforc
Page 156 and 157:
5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
Page 158 and 159:
29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
Page 160 and 161:
45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
Page 162 and 163:
62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
Page 164 and 165:
71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
Page 166 and 167:
90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
Page 168 and 169:
lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
Page 170:
125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
Page 173 and 174:
The positive shift in relations coi
Page 175 and 176:
and in other public statements that
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tagonist of the cause for dismantli
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mobilization. 11 It is possible to
Page 181 and 182:
Since the collapse of the Union of
Page 183 and 184:
avoid the need to act on this rheto
Page 185 and 186:
the technology behind its modern ai
Page 187 and 188:
duumvirate might be modified or aba
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to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
Page 191 and 192:
Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
Page 193 and 194:
10. A more detailed analysis of thi
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analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
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CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
Page 200 and 201:
ery vehicles is apparently below th
Page 202 and 203:
out as to whether it will be able t
Page 204 and 205:
that they could theoretically affec
Page 206 and 207:
cause Russia can respond with nucle
Page 208 and 209:
states, and Nordic countries to tha
Page 210 and 211:
should be more properly translated
Page 212 and 213:
as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
Page 214 and 215:
cautious attitude toward missile de
Page 216 and 217:
few years later, demonstrated that
Page 218 and 219:
exercises since 1999. All of them w
Page 220 and 221:
2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
Page 222 and 223:
fewer paragraphs about the use of n
Page 224 and 225:
Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
Page 226 and 227:
and verifiable treaty on TNW was at
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ity is regarded as an advantage tha
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tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
Page 232 and 233:
The pace and the success rate for e
Page 234 and 235:
Even more remote is the plan to dev
Page 236 and 237:
construction of the first submarine
Page 238 and 239:
tion of that leg was still minimal.
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where between Tu-22M3 and heavy bom
Page 242 and 243:
weapons guarantee Russia’s securi
Page 244 and 245:
of information about plans turned o
Page 246 and 247:
Quite paradoxically, another, equal
Page 248 and 249:
troversy over missile defense. In h
Page 250 and 251:
A positive element in all the confl
Page 252 and 253:
from submarines is likely to compli
Page 254 and 255:
2005, two more are close to complet
Page 256 and 257:
time) is practically never mentione
Page 258 and 259:
from Alaska, “but they will not b
Page 260 and 261:
porting of an even more expensive p
Page 262 and 263:
5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
Page 264 and 265:
20. A. Khryapin and V. Afanasiev,
Page 266 and 267:
(“The God of War Does Not Retire
Page 268 and 269:
50. For a recent statement to that
Page 270 and 271:
closely fit one of first strike sce
Page 272 and 273:
CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
Page 274 and 275:
completely out of proportion to its
Page 276 and 277:
its conventional military force to
Page 278 and 279:
especially in the strategic nuclear
Page 280 and 281:
in the NSS and brings it close to h
Page 282 and 283:
wars. However, given expressions of
Page 284 and 285:
equate command and control capabili
Page 286 and 287:
weapons. The number of commands and
Page 288 and 289:
upgraded warplanes, 20 to 25 milita
Page 290 and 291:
the fact that the economy and infra
Page 292 and 293:
The threat environment fabricated b
Page 294 and 295:
There are aspects to their nuclear
Page 296 and 297:
that are likely to result in greate
Page 298 and 299:
ope. Recently, Moscow even objected
Page 300 and 301:
8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broa
Page 302:
31. Colonel General Alexander Zelin
Page 305 and 306:
policy context, suggests that very
Page 307 and 308:
Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
Page 309 and 310:
systems, our partners may come to f
Page 311 and 312:
increased purchases of weapons and
Page 313 and 314:
naval bases. 27 Yet the defense sec
Page 315 and 316:
state expenditures will supposedly
Page 317 and 318:
THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
Page 319 and 320:
Not only did Serdyukov accept this
Page 321 and 322:
the Strategic Missile (Rocket) Forc
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fight using such weapons. Consequen
Page 325 and 326:
the global and regional levels enta
Page 327 and 328:
ate risks for Russia.” 74 But sin
Page 329 and 330:
Neither is this just rhetoric. As o
Page 331 and 332:
Since then Deputy Foreign Minister
Page 333 and 334:
The radical changes that have occur
Page 335 and 336:
tary’s viewpoint. Patrushev told
Page 337 and 338:
In responding to a question from Pu
Page 339 and 340:
strike even in a preventive or pree
Page 341 and 342:
longer guarantee a retaliatory resp
Page 343 and 344:
tive entourages. Such trends are da
Page 345 and 346:
standpoint its perception is a vali
Page 347 and 348:
this problem and make the Fleet Rus
Page 349 and 350:
tedly self-inflated status that it
Page 351 and 352:
The following analysis from 2004 to
Page 353 and 354:
Consequently, 162 Vasilenko also st
Page 355 and 356:
inferiority vis-à-vis U.S. and Chi
Page 357 and 358:
eductions will continue. Most likel
Page 359 and 360:
If Russian leaders are to decrease
Page 361 and 362:
14. “Failure to build a professio
Page 363 and 364:
37. Moscow, Russia, Interfax-AVN On
Page 365 and 366:
59. Open Source Committee, OSC Anal
Page 367 and 368:
78. Open Source Center, “Russians
Page 369 and 370:
99. “Russia To Allocate $35.3 Bil
Page 371 and 372:
121. Jussi Kontinen, “Russia Plan
Page 373 and 374:
143. Litovkin, “We Didn’t Send
Page 375 and 376:
nid Ivashov on Russian Foreign Poli
Page 377 and 378:
Sixth, Russian policymakers can iss
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U.S. surface ships and attack subma
Page 381 and 382:
arsenal, as well as approximately a
Page 383 and 384:
the Russian military has continued
Page 385 and 386:
heads, instead it is possible to ma
Page 387 and 388:
it endangers the Russian state (a p
Page 389 and 390:
particular, Russian Government repr
Page 391 and 392:
Poland will once again come under i
Page 393 and 394:
to host U.S. BMD facilities, Russia
Page 395 and 396:
systems. U.S. ballistic missile and
Page 397 and 398:
Russian Government abandoned its de
Page 399 and 400:
Later that year, Putin told leading
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a U.S.-NATO attack. In his May 2006
Page 403 and 404:
The Obama administration also decid
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treaty monitoring by prohibiting ac
Page 407 and 408:
The main Russian military newspaper
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more secure locations. 80 Russian o
Page 411 and 412:
Any proposals for increased transpa
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emaining props of Russia’s great
Page 415 and 416:
many and Japan in the generations a
Page 417 and 418:
2010, available from news.kremlin.r
Page 419 and 420:
32. Cited in Peter Finn, “Antimis
Page 421 and 422:
48. Viktor Myasnikov, Vladimir Ivan
Page 423 and 424:
asp?SHORTCUT=695; John Edwards and
Page 425 and 426:
81. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
Page 428 and 429:
CHAPTER 9 NEW START AND NONPROLIFER
Page 430 and 431:
number of launchers to a maximum of
Page 432 and 433:
U.S. plan for missile defenses depl
Page 434 and 435:
tual deployment of weapons for conv
Page 436 and 437:
and Air Force. 20 Russia’s need f
Page 438 and 439:
war. The conflict also served as a
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Brazil, China, Japan, South Korea,
Page 442 and 443:
perceived battlefield desperation.
Page 444 and 445:
(CBT); to mobilize international su
Page 446 and 447:
linear to nonlinear strategies for
Page 448 and 449:
Data Analysis. Current and New STAR
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Using the numbers in Table 3-1 as p
Page 452 and 453:
Figure 9-2. Russian Surviving and R
Page 454 and 455:
The results summarized in Figures 9
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intended as predictions of actual f
Page 458 and 459:
CONCLUSION New START and other mani
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ty,” Opening Statement before the
Page 462 and 463:
Talbott, “A better base for cutti
Page 464 and 465:
20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Me
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35. “Military dangers” create c
Page 468 and 469:
and Future of Nuclear Weapons, New
Page 470 and 471:
CHAPTER 10 RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POSTU
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Russian foreign policy commentary o
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jor component of Russia’s geostra
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many in 1941, Gareev pointed to the
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By the spring of 2009, a number of
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structures, early warning systems,
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ghanistan, were part of an effort t
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design bureau in Moscow and the pro
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weapons by India and Pakistan in 19
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Kuril islands. In both Manchuria an
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There were, of course, all sorts of
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Australian experts concluded was fi
Page 494 and 495:
however, Chinese military moderniza
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cise, General Makarov stated that:
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commitment to make Russia into an i
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cruiser Petr Velikii to observe a m
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as effectively defenseless against
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nal threats, but the real problem i
Page 506 and 507:
cused Khramchikhin of “playing wi
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that included not only the Russian
Page 510 and 511:
27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
Page 512 and 513:
47. This process has been addressed
Page 514:
66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
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terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
Page 519 and 520:
editor of Military Affairs, as assi
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and the Institute of World Economy
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
Page 525:
U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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