Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future - Strategic ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

CHAPTER 9 NEW START AND NONPROLIFERATION: SUITORS OR SEPARATE TABLES? INTRODUCTION Stephen J. Cimbala In the spring of 2010, the diplomatic atmosphere was an apparent success story for those seeking to reduce nuclear danger. The signing of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) agreement in April 2010 took place almost exactly 1 year after President Barack Obama’s landmark speech calling for nuclear abolition. New START was followed by the successful outcome of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference in May 2010, in marked contrast to the acrimonious denouement of the 2005 meeting. 1 In addition, a U.S. Nuclear Posture Review and a revised Russian Military Doctrine made public in the spring of 2010 also seemed to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in the respective military strategies and national security policies of the two states. Russia, the United States, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) talked of cooperation on missile defense and other issues, and Obama pushed forward an ambitious agenda of multilateral control measures, including ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTB) and global support for a Fissile Materials Cutoff Treaty (FMCT). Only Maurice Chevalier, strolling and singing on a boulevard in Paris, was lacking for suitable background music. Diplomatic atmospheres come and go, but the bankers of policy and strategy demand payment in hard 417
currency. Russian-American strategic nuclear arms reductions neither preclude, nor guarantee, favorable prospects for multilateral disarmament or nonproliferation. This discussion first reviews the New START agreement and its implications for deterrence stability and arms control. Second, we develop and test the viability of a hypothetical, post-New START agreement with significantly lower numbers of operationally deployed strategic nuclear weapons. Third, we model a constrained nuclear nonproliferation regime, based on the post-New START agreement described earlier. A fourth section summarizes pertinent conclusions. POLICY New START Gets Done. U.S. President Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed the New START agreement April 8, 2010, in Prague, Czech Republic. Replacing the START I that had already expired in December 2009, the New START agreement called for reductions in the number of deployed long range nuclear weapons and their delivery systems: intercontinental missiles and heavy bombers. Part of the “reset” in U.S.-Russian relations following the acrimony of the Vladimir Putin and George W. Bush presidencies, the New START agreement was seen as a prelude to further Russian and American nuclear force reductions and to broader cooperation between Moscow and Washington on other nuclear related matters, including nonproliferation. Under the new START agreement, each state would be required to reduce its number of deployed strategic warheads to a maximum of 1,550 and its 418
Page 1 and 2:
Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
Page 3 and 4:
***** Comments pertaining to this r
Page 5 and 6:
Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
Page 8 and 9:
INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
Page 10 and 11:
future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
Page 12 and 13:
CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
Page 14 and 15:
States (CIS). For a number of reaso
Page 16 and 17:
with nuclear weapons alone. General
Page 18 and 19:
cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
Page 20 and 21:
PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
Page 22 and 23:
sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
Page 24 and 25:
its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
Page 26 and 27:
The words about the priority of nuc
Page 28 and 29:
If the constant failures by the Bul
Page 30 and 31:
LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
Page 32 and 33:
prepare themselves against.” 51 A
Page 34 and 35:
that day the directorates were enga
Page 36 and 37:
USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
Page 38 and 39:
2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
Page 40 and 41:
28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
Page 42:
53. “The Military Doctrine of the
Page 45 and 46:
mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
Page 47 and 48:
1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
Page 49 and 50:
Implementation. Chief of the Genera
Page 51 and 52:
has not been followed by any obviou
Page 53 and 54:
ficers compared with society and th
Page 55 and 56:
Many of these challenges are unlike
Page 57 and 58:
Institute, examined some of these i
Page 59 and 60:
of brigades in the table of organiz
Page 61 and 62:
The performance of the brigades, fo
Page 63 and 64:
employment will be effective when t
Page 65 and 66:
RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
Page 67 and 68:
The Search for the “New:” Defin
Page 69 and 70:
on states; individual states violat
Page 71 and 72:
almost verbatim. The third threat,
Page 73 and 74:
ministry working group. Army-Genera
Page 75 and 76:
Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
Page 77 and 78:
Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
Page 79 and 80:
identifying the intentions and fore
Page 81 and 82:
The Russian Federation reserves the
Page 83 and 84:
the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
Page 85 and 86:
United States, Russia is in a diffe
Page 87 and 88:
mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
Page 89 and 90:
Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
Page 91 and 92:
as among Alliance members, future B
Page 93 and 94:
in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
Page 95 and 96:
fearing that, unless handled sensit
Page 97 and 98:
of strategic engagement with Russia
Page 99 and 100:
6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
Page 101 and 102:
28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
Page 103 and 104:
44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
Page 105 and 106:
Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
Page 107 and 108:
Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
Page 110 and 111:
CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
Page 112 and 113:
tary and foreign policy, many polit
Page 114 and 115:
In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
Page 116 and 117:
1970s had long-term effects on late
Page 118 and 119:
ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
Page 120 and 121:
educing strategic armaments and eve
Page 122 and 123:
Internationally, the RF earned a du
Page 124 and 125:
itary-political relations with West
Page 126 and 127:
The situation in the armed forces t
Page 128 and 129:
The Russian Federation reserves the
Page 130 and 131:
In the latter case, they expected o
Page 132 and 133:
As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
Page 134 and 135:
facilitate the elimination of weapo
Page 136 and 137:
Putin saw added opportunities for p
Page 138 and 139:
the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
Page 140 and 141:
sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
Page 142 and 143:
and NATO provocations.” In partic
Page 144 and 145:
econsider its key postulates. Alrea
Page 146 and 147:
CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
Page 148 and 149:
eady developing the theory of strat
Page 150 and 151:
termination of the Cold War and the
Page 152 and 153:
goals and the promise “to extend
Page 154 and 155:
• Reforms of the army, law-enforc
Page 156 and 157:
5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
Page 158 and 159:
29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
Page 160 and 161:
45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
Page 162 and 163:
62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
Page 164 and 165:
71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
Page 166 and 167:
90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
Page 168 and 169:
lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
Page 170:
125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
Page 173 and 174:
The positive shift in relations coi
Page 175 and 176:
and in other public statements that
Page 177 and 178:
tagonist of the cause for dismantli
Page 179 and 180:
mobilization. 11 It is possible to
Page 181 and 182:
Since the collapse of the Union of
Page 183 and 184:
avoid the need to act on this rheto
Page 185 and 186:
the technology behind its modern ai
Page 187 and 188:
duumvirate might be modified or aba
Page 189 and 190:
to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
Page 191 and 192:
Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
Page 193 and 194:
10. A more detailed analysis of thi
Page 195 and 196:
analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
Page 198 and 199:
CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
Page 200 and 201:
ery vehicles is apparently below th
Page 202 and 203:
out as to whether it will be able t
Page 204 and 205:
that they could theoretically affec
Page 206 and 207:
cause Russia can respond with nucle
Page 208 and 209:
states, and Nordic countries to tha
Page 210 and 211:
should be more properly translated
Page 212 and 213:
as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
Page 214 and 215:
cautious attitude toward missile de
Page 216 and 217:
few years later, demonstrated that
Page 218 and 219:
exercises since 1999. All of them w
Page 220 and 221:
2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
Page 222 and 223:
fewer paragraphs about the use of n
Page 224 and 225:
Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
Page 226 and 227:
and verifiable treaty on TNW was at
Page 228 and 229:
ity is regarded as an advantage tha
Page 230 and 231:
tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
Page 232 and 233:
The pace and the success rate for e
Page 234 and 235:
Even more remote is the plan to dev
Page 236 and 237:
construction of the first submarine
Page 238 and 239:
tion of that leg was still minimal.
Page 240 and 241:
where between Tu-22M3 and heavy bom
Page 242 and 243:
weapons guarantee Russia’s securi
Page 244 and 245:
of information about plans turned o
Page 246 and 247:
Quite paradoxically, another, equal
Page 248 and 249:
troversy over missile defense. In h
Page 250 and 251:
A positive element in all the confl
Page 252 and 253:
from submarines is likely to compli
Page 254 and 255:
2005, two more are close to complet
Page 256 and 257:
time) is practically never mentione
Page 258 and 259:
from Alaska, “but they will not b
Page 260 and 261:
porting of an even more expensive p
Page 262 and 263:
5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
Page 264 and 265:
20. A. Khryapin and V. Afanasiev,
Page 266 and 267:
(“The God of War Does Not Retire
Page 268 and 269:
50. For a recent statement to that
Page 270 and 271:
closely fit one of first strike sce
Page 272 and 273:
CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
Page 274 and 275:
completely out of proportion to its
Page 276 and 277:
its conventional military force to
Page 278 and 279:
especially in the strategic nuclear
Page 280 and 281:
in the NSS and brings it close to h
Page 282 and 283:
wars. However, given expressions of
Page 284 and 285:
equate command and control capabili
Page 286 and 287:
weapons. The number of commands and
Page 288 and 289:
upgraded warplanes, 20 to 25 milita
Page 290 and 291:
the fact that the economy and infra
Page 292 and 293:
The threat environment fabricated b
Page 294 and 295:
There are aspects to their nuclear
Page 296 and 297:
that are likely to result in greate
Page 298 and 299:
ope. Recently, Moscow even objected
Page 300 and 301:
8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broa
Page 302:
31. Colonel General Alexander Zelin
Page 305 and 306:
policy context, suggests that very
Page 307 and 308:
Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
Page 309 and 310:
systems, our partners may come to f
Page 311 and 312:
increased purchases of weapons and
Page 313 and 314:
naval bases. 27 Yet the defense sec
Page 315 and 316:
state expenditures will supposedly
Page 317 and 318:
THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
Page 319 and 320:
Not only did Serdyukov accept this
Page 321 and 322:
the Strategic Missile (Rocket) Forc
Page 323 and 324:
fight using such weapons. Consequen
Page 325 and 326:
the global and regional levels enta
Page 327 and 328:
ate risks for Russia.” 74 But sin
Page 329 and 330:
Neither is this just rhetoric. As o
Page 331 and 332:
Since then Deputy Foreign Minister
Page 333 and 334:
The radical changes that have occur
Page 335 and 336:
tary’s viewpoint. Patrushev told
Page 337 and 338:
In responding to a question from Pu
Page 339 and 340:
strike even in a preventive or pree
Page 341 and 342:
longer guarantee a retaliatory resp
Page 343 and 344:
tive entourages. Such trends are da
Page 345 and 346:
standpoint its perception is a vali
Page 347 and 348:
this problem and make the Fleet Rus
Page 349 and 350:
tedly self-inflated status that it
Page 351 and 352:
The following analysis from 2004 to
Page 353 and 354:
Consequently, 162 Vasilenko also st
Page 355 and 356:
inferiority vis-à-vis U.S. and Chi
Page 357 and 358:
eductions will continue. Most likel
Page 359 and 360:
If Russian leaders are to decrease
Page 361 and 362:
14. “Failure to build a professio
Page 363 and 364:
37. Moscow, Russia, Interfax-AVN On
Page 365 and 366:
59. Open Source Committee, OSC Anal
Page 367 and 368:
78. Open Source Center, “Russians
Page 369 and 370:
99. “Russia To Allocate $35.3 Bil
Page 371 and 372:
121. Jussi Kontinen, “Russia Plan
Page 373 and 374:
143. Litovkin, “We Didn’t Send
Page 375 and 376:
nid Ivashov on Russian Foreign Poli
Page 377 and 378: Sixth, Russian policymakers can iss
Page 379 and 380: U.S. surface ships and attack subma
Page 381 and 382: arsenal, as well as approximately a
Page 383 and 384: the Russian military has continued
Page 385 and 386: heads, instead it is possible to ma
Page 387 and 388: it endangers the Russian state (a p
Page 389 and 390: particular, Russian Government repr
Page 391 and 392: Poland will once again come under i
Page 393 and 394: to host U.S. BMD facilities, Russia
Page 395 and 396: systems. U.S. ballistic missile and
Page 397 and 398: Russian Government abandoned its de
Page 399 and 400: Later that year, Putin told leading
Page 401 and 402: a U.S.-NATO attack. In his May 2006
Page 403 and 404: The Obama administration also decid
Page 405 and 406: treaty monitoring by prohibiting ac
Page 407 and 408: The main Russian military newspaper
Page 409 and 410: more secure locations. 80 Russian o
Page 411 and 412: Any proposals for increased transpa
Page 413 and 414: emaining props of Russia’s great
Page 415 and 416: many and Japan in the generations a
Page 417 and 418: 2010, available from news.kremlin.r
Page 419 and 420: 32. Cited in Peter Finn, “Antimis
Page 421 and 422: 48. Viktor Myasnikov, Vladimir Ivan
Page 423 and 424: asp?SHORTCUT=695; John Edwards and
Page 425 and 426: 81. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
Page 430 and 431: number of launchers to a maximum of
Page 432 and 433: U.S. plan for missile defenses depl
Page 434 and 435: tual deployment of weapons for conv
Page 436 and 437: and Air Force. 20 Russia’s need f
Page 438 and 439: war. The conflict also served as a
Page 440 and 441: Brazil, China, Japan, South Korea,
Page 442 and 443: perceived battlefield desperation.
Page 444 and 445: (CBT); to mobilize international su
Page 446 and 447: linear to nonlinear strategies for
Page 448 and 449: Data Analysis. Current and New STAR
Page 450 and 451: Using the numbers in Table 3-1 as p
Page 452 and 453: Figure 9-2. Russian Surviving and R
Page 454 and 455: The results summarized in Figures 9
Page 456 and 457: intended as predictions of actual f
Page 458 and 459: CONCLUSION New START and other mani
Page 460 and 461: ty,” Opening Statement before the
Page 462 and 463: Talbott, “A better base for cutti
Page 464 and 465: 20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Me
Page 466 and 467: 35. “Military dangers” create c
Page 468 and 469: and Future of Nuclear Weapons, New
Page 470 and 471: CHAPTER 10 RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POSTU
Page 472 and 473: Russian foreign policy commentary o
Page 474 and 475: jor component of Russia’s geostra
Page 476 and 477: many in 1941, Gareev pointed to the
Page 478 and 479:
By the spring of 2009, a number of
Page 480 and 481:
structures, early warning systems,
Page 482 and 483:
ghanistan, were part of an effort t
Page 484 and 485:
design bureau in Moscow and the pro
Page 486 and 487:
weapons by India and Pakistan in 19
Page 488 and 489:
Kuril islands. In both Manchuria an
Page 490 and 491:
There were, of course, all sorts of
Page 492 and 493:
Australian experts concluded was fi
Page 494 and 495:
however, Chinese military moderniza
Page 496 and 497:
cise, General Makarov stated that:
Page 498 and 499:
commitment to make Russia into an i
Page 500 and 501:
cruiser Petr Velikii to observe a m
Page 502 and 503:
as effectively defenseless against
Page 504 and 505:
nal threats, but the real problem i
Page 506 and 507:
cused Khramchikhin of “playing wi
Page 508 and 509:
that included not only the Russian
Page 510 and 511:
27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
Page 512 and 513:
47. This process has been addressed
Page 514:
66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
Page 517 and 518:
terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
Page 519 and 520:
editor of Military Affairs, as assi
Page 521 and 522:
and the Institute of World Economy
Page 523 and 524:
U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
Page 525:
U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
show all

Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future - Strategic ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?