Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future - Strategic ...

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2008, pp. 97-128; Stanislav Secrieriu, “Illusion of Power: Russia After the South Caucasus Battle,” CEPS Working Document, No. 311, February, 2009, p. 5, available from www.ceps.be (CEPS stands for Center for European Policy Studies); Alexander Chuykov, “Bulava and Dolgoruky Unveiling,” Moscow, Russia, Argumenty I Fakty, in Russian, June 18, 2009, FBIS SOV, June 18, 2009. 27. Alexander Chuykov, “Bulava and Dolgoruky (Unveiling),” Moscow, Russia, Argumenty Nedeli Online, in Russian, June 18, 2009, FBIS SOV, June 18, 2009; Alexander Chuykov, “The Crisis Has Caught Up with the Military Bases,” Moscow, Russia, Argumenty Nedeli Online, in Russian, June 25, 2009, FBIS SOV, June 15, 2009; Moscow, Russia, Prime-TASS Online, in Russian, June 29, 2009, FBIS SOV, June 29, 2009. 28. Roger McDermott, “Russia Flexes Its Military Muscle,” January 4, 2009, available from www.guardian.co.uk. 29. Catherine Belton, “Russian Economy Plummets 10.1%,” Financial Times, July 15, 2009, available from www.ft.com. 30. Roger McDermott, “Russia’s National Security Strategy,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, May 19, 2009. 31. Pavel Felgenhauer, “Russia Will Spend 20 Trillion Rubles on New Weapons,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, July 22, 2010. 32. Ibid. 33. Moscow, Russia, Interfax in Russian, July 28, 2010, FBIS SOV, July 28, 2010. 34. Felgenhauer, “Russia Will Spend 20 Trillion Rubles on New Weapons.” 35. Ibid. 36. “Russia in Counter-Trend: Defense Spending Will Increase by 60% in 2013,” available from www.avionews.clom; “Russian Defense Spending To Rise By 60% by 2013,” RIA Novosti, July 30, 2010, available from en.rian.ru/military_news/201000730/16000003543. html. 351
37. Moscow, Russia, Interfax-AVN Online, in Russian, August 5, 2010, FBIS SOV, August 5, 2010. 38. Vladimir Kalinin, “Realities,” Moscow, Russia, Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, in Russian, August 6, 2010, FBIS SOV, August 6, 2010. 39. Remarks by Stephen Blank, Eugene Rumer, Mikhail Tsypkin , and Alexander Golts at the Heritage Foundation Program, “The Russian Military: Modernization and the Future,” April 8, 2008, available from www.heritage.org/press/events/ev040808a.cfm; Stephen Blank, “Civil-Military Relations and Russian Security,” Stephen Blank, ed., Contemporary Issues in International Security, Russian, European, and American Views, Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Forthcoming. 40. Julian Cooper, “The ‘Security Economy’,” Mark Galeotti, ed., The Politics of Security in Modern Russia, Farnham, Surrey and Burlington, VT: Ashgate Publishing Company, 2009, pp. 145-169. 41. Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation. 42. Ibid. 43. Ibid. 44. “Russia Could Focus On Tactical Nuclear Weapons For Subs,” RIA Novosti, March 23, 2009, available from en.rian.ru/russia/20090323/120688454.html. 45. Natsional’naya Strategiya Bezopasnosti Rossii, do 2020 Goda, Moscow, Russia: Security Council of the Russian Federation, May 12, 2009, available from www.scrf.gov.ru, in English, FBIS SOV, May 15, 2009; Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation. 46. Text of Speeches by President Dmitry Medvedev and Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov at a Defense Ministry Collegium, Samara Volga Inform, in Russian, March 17, 2009, FBIS SOV, March 17, 2009. 47. Ibid. 352
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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
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INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
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future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
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CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
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States (CIS). For a number of reaso
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with nuclear weapons alone. General
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cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
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PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
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sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
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its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
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The words about the priority of nuc
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If the constant failures by the Bul
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LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
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prepare themselves against.” 51 A
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that day the directorates were enga
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USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
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2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
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28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
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53. “The Military Doctrine of the
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mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
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1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
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Implementation. Chief of the Genera
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has not been followed by any obviou
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ficers compared with society and th
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Many of these challenges are unlike
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Institute, examined some of these i
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of brigades in the table of organiz
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The performance of the brigades, fo
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employment will be effective when t
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RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
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The Search for the “New:” Defin
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on states; individual states violat
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almost verbatim. The third threat,
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ministry working group. Army-Genera
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Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
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Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
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identifying the intentions and fore
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
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United States, Russia is in a diffe
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mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
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Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
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as among Alliance members, future B
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in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
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fearing that, unless handled sensit
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of strategic engagement with Russia
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6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
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28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
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44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
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Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
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Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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tary and foreign policy, many polit
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In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
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1970s had long-term effects on late
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ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
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educing strategic armaments and eve
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Internationally, the RF earned a du
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itary-political relations with West
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The situation in the armed forces t
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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In the latter case, they expected o
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As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
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facilitate the elimination of weapo
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Putin saw added opportunities for p
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the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
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sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
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and NATO provocations.” In partic
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econsider its key postulates. Alrea
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CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
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eady developing the theory of strat
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termination of the Cold War and the
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goals and the promise “to extend
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• Reforms of the army, law-enforc
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5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
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29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
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45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
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62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
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71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
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90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
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lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
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125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
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The positive shift in relations coi
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and in other public statements that
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tagonist of the cause for dismantli
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mobilization. 11 It is possible to
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Since the collapse of the Union of
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avoid the need to act on this rheto
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the technology behind its modern ai
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duumvirate might be modified or aba
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to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
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Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
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10. A more detailed analysis of thi
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analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
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CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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ery vehicles is apparently below th
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out as to whether it will be able t
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that they could theoretically affec
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cause Russia can respond with nucle
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states, and Nordic countries to tha
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should be more properly translated
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as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
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cautious attitude toward missile de
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few years later, demonstrated that
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exercises since 1999. All of them w
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2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
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fewer paragraphs about the use of n
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Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
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and verifiable treaty on TNW was at
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ity is regarded as an advantage tha
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tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
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The pace and the success rate for e
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Even more remote is the plan to dev
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construction of the first submarine
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tion of that leg was still minimal.
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where between Tu-22M3 and heavy bom
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weapons guarantee Russia’s securi
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of information about plans turned o
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Quite paradoxically, another, equal
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troversy over missile defense. In h
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A positive element in all the confl
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from submarines is likely to compli
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2005, two more are close to complet
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time) is practically never mentione
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from Alaska, “but they will not b
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porting of an even more expensive p
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5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
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20. A. Khryapin and V. Afanasiev,
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(“The God of War Does Not Retire
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50. For a recent statement to that
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closely fit one of first strike sce
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CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
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completely out of proportion to its
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its conventional military force to
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especially in the strategic nuclear
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in the NSS and brings it close to h
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wars. However, given expressions of
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equate command and control capabili
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weapons. The number of commands and
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upgraded warplanes, 20 to 25 milita
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the fact that the economy and infra
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The threat environment fabricated b
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There are aspects to their nuclear
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that are likely to result in greate
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ope. Recently, Moscow even objected
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8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broa
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31. Colonel General Alexander Zelin
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policy context, suggests that very
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Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
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systems, our partners may come to f
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Page 317 and 318: THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
Page 319 and 320: Not only did Serdyukov accept this
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Page 329 and 330: Neither is this just rhetoric. As o
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Page 337 and 338: In responding to a question from Pu
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Page 351 and 352: The following analysis from 2004 to
Page 353 and 354: Consequently, 162 Vasilenko also st
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Page 377 and 378: Sixth, Russian policymakers can iss
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Page 395 and 396: systems. U.S. ballistic missile and
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Page 399 and 400: Later that year, Putin told leading
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emaining props of Russia’s great
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many and Japan in the generations a
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2010, available from news.kremlin.r
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32. Cited in Peter Finn, “Antimis
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48. Viktor Myasnikov, Vladimir Ivan
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asp?SHORTCUT=695; John Edwards and
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81. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
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CHAPTER 9 NEW START AND NONPROLIFER
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number of launchers to a maximum of
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U.S. plan for missile defenses depl
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tual deployment of weapons for conv
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and Air Force. 20 Russia’s need f
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war. The conflict also served as a
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Brazil, China, Japan, South Korea,
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perceived battlefield desperation.
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(CBT); to mobilize international su
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linear to nonlinear strategies for
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Data Analysis. Current and New STAR
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Using the numbers in Table 3-1 as p
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Figure 9-2. Russian Surviving and R
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The results summarized in Figures 9
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intended as predictions of actual f
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CONCLUSION New START and other mani
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ty,” Opening Statement before the
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Talbott, “A better base for cutti
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20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Me
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35. “Military dangers” create c
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and Future of Nuclear Weapons, New
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CHAPTER 10 RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POSTU
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Russian foreign policy commentary o
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jor component of Russia’s geostra
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many in 1941, Gareev pointed to the
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By the spring of 2009, a number of
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structures, early warning systems,
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ghanistan, were part of an effort t
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design bureau in Moscow and the pro
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weapons by India and Pakistan in 19
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Kuril islands. In both Manchuria an
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There were, of course, all sorts of
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Australian experts concluded was fi
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however, Chinese military moderniza
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cise, General Makarov stated that:
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commitment to make Russia into an i
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cruiser Petr Velikii to observe a m
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as effectively defenseless against
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nal threats, but the real problem i
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cused Khramchikhin of “playing wi
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that included not only the Russian
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27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
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47. This process has been addressed
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66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
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terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
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editor of Military Affairs, as assi
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and the Institute of World Economy
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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