Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future - Strategic ...

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LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one or two Tu-160s available to him, General Igor Khovorov, the commander of Long- Range Aviation (LRA), stated that during 2006, he planned to carry out 10 launches of cruise missiles; not exactly what one would expect from the air force of a superpower. 46 The next year, the commander of the Air Force announced that an upgraded Tu-160 would enter service with the Air Force, and that another one was in the pipeline. 47 Imagine if the effective air arm of the Russian nuclear triad consisted of only four or five old, if modernized, strategic aircraft! The situation did not improve over time. For example, every time a senior Air Force officer spoke of new planes, his comments were clearly focused on fighter aircraft, which appears to be the major concern of the Air Force at present—the Fifth Generation Fighter. Consider the follow comments from a critic of LRA: Strategic missile-armed aircraft are designed to destroy enemy targets with …known coordinates. Recently within the scope of the LRA command and staff drill conducted under the direction of DA (LRA) Commander Major-General Anatoliy Zhikharev, crews took up Tu-95MSs with practice cruise missiles aboard from Engles Airbase. They unsuccessfully executed launches to maximum range (around 2,500) against targets on the northern Pemboy Range (Vorkuta). It was “whispered” to me that the missiles’ deviation from the center of the target did not exceed 20m. This is something of which to be proud! 48 The bottom line is that LRA has a very long way to go before it can be considered a critical part of the strategic nuclear triad. 19
THE SEARCH FOR A NEW MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010 Even though it had only been in effect for 3 years, by 2003 there were calls for an updating of Russian military doctrine. As General Anatoliy Kulikov put it: Bearing in mind the recent war in Iraq, the current military doctrine of Russia does not meet modern requirements for national security. It should be the basis for drafting a national security doctrine of Russia to clearly define modern threats and challenges to Russian armed forces. 49 From an organizational standpoint, Putin and Ivanov had succeeded in stabilizing the military. However, there were continued problems—funding for the military was increased, but there was still not enough to purchase the weapons needed either to modernize the country’s conventional forces, or to build the nuclear forces the country needed. As a result, in 2005 Putin formally charged Russia’s military leaders to come up with a new military doctrine. One of the key factors of any nuclear doctrine is preemption. Putin had made his position on this issue very clear in 2003, when he remarked, “If the practice of preventive strikes should de facto become widespread and grow stronger, Russia reserves the right to such practice.” He continued, remarking, that “We are against this, but we retain the right to carry out preventive strikes.” 50 So what were the major—problems beyond the reoccurring issue of preemption? First, as Arbatov noted, was the failure of the doctrine to tell the Armed Forces “what kind of enemy they are supposed to 20
Page 1 and 2: Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
Page 3 and 4: ***** Comments pertaining to this r
Page 5 and 6: Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
Page 8 and 9: INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
Page 10 and 11: future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
Page 12 and 13: CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
Page 14 and 15: States (CIS). For a number of reaso
Page 16 and 17: with nuclear weapons alone. General
Page 18 and 19: cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
Page 20 and 21: PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
Page 22 and 23: sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
Page 24 and 25: its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
Page 26 and 27: The words about the priority of nuc
Page 28 and 29: If the constant failures by the Bul
Page 32 and 33: prepare themselves against.” 51 A
Page 34 and 35: that day the directorates were enga
Page 36 and 37: USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
Page 38 and 39: 2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
Page 40 and 41: 28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
Page 42: 53. “The Military Doctrine of the
Page 45 and 46: mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
Page 47 and 48: 1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
Page 49 and 50: Implementation. Chief of the Genera
Page 51 and 52: has not been followed by any obviou
Page 53 and 54: ficers compared with society and th
Page 55 and 56: Many of these challenges are unlike
Page 57 and 58: Institute, examined some of these i
Page 59 and 60: of brigades in the table of organiz
Page 61 and 62: The performance of the brigades, fo
Page 63 and 64: employment will be effective when t
Page 65 and 66: RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
Page 67 and 68: The Search for the “New:” Defin
Page 69 and 70: on states; individual states violat
Page 71 and 72: almost verbatim. The third threat,
Page 73 and 74: ministry working group. Army-Genera
Page 75 and 76: Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
Page 77 and 78: Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
Page 79 and 80: identifying the intentions and fore
Page 81 and 82:
The Russian Federation reserves the
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the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
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United States, Russia is in a diffe
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mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
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Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
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as among Alliance members, future B
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in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
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fearing that, unless handled sensit
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of strategic engagement with Russia
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6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
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28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
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44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
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Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
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Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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tary and foreign policy, many polit
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In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
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1970s had long-term effects on late
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ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
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educing strategic armaments and eve
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Internationally, the RF earned a du
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itary-political relations with West
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The situation in the armed forces t
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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In the latter case, they expected o
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As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
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facilitate the elimination of weapo
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Putin saw added opportunities for p
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the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
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sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
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and NATO provocations.” In partic
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econsider its key postulates. Alrea
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CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
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eady developing the theory of strat
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termination of the Cold War and the
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goals and the promise “to extend
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• Reforms of the army, law-enforc
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5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
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29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
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45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
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62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
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71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
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90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
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lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
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125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
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The positive shift in relations coi
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and in other public statements that
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tagonist of the cause for dismantli
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mobilization. 11 It is possible to
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Since the collapse of the Union of
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avoid the need to act on this rheto
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the technology behind its modern ai
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duumvirate might be modified or aba
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to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
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Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
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10. A more detailed analysis of thi
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analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
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CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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ery vehicles is apparently below th
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out as to whether it will be able t
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that they could theoretically affec
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cause Russia can respond with nucle
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states, and Nordic countries to tha
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should be more properly translated
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as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
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cautious attitude toward missile de
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few years later, demonstrated that
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exercises since 1999. All of them w
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2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
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fewer paragraphs about the use of n
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Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
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and verifiable treaty on TNW was at
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ity is regarded as an advantage tha
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tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
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The pace and the success rate for e
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Even more remote is the plan to dev
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construction of the first submarine
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tion of that leg was still minimal.
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where between Tu-22M3 and heavy bom
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weapons guarantee Russia’s securi
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of information about plans turned o
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Quite paradoxically, another, equal
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troversy over missile defense. In h
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A positive element in all the confl
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from submarines is likely to compli
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2005, two more are close to complet
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time) is practically never mentione
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from Alaska, “but they will not b
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porting of an even more expensive p
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5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
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20. A. Khryapin and V. Afanasiev,
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(“The God of War Does Not Retire
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50. For a recent statement to that
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closely fit one of first strike sce
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CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
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completely out of proportion to its
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its conventional military force to
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especially in the strategic nuclear
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in the NSS and brings it close to h
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wars. However, given expressions of
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equate command and control capabili
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weapons. The number of commands and
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upgraded warplanes, 20 to 25 milita
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the fact that the economy and infra
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The threat environment fabricated b
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There are aspects to their nuclear
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that are likely to result in greate
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ope. Recently, Moscow even objected
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8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broa
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31. Colonel General Alexander Zelin
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policy context, suggests that very
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Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
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systems, our partners may come to f
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increased purchases of weapons and
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naval bases. 27 Yet the defense sec
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state expenditures will supposedly
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THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
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Not only did Serdyukov accept this
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the Strategic Missile (Rocket) Forc
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fight using such weapons. Consequen
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the global and regional levels enta
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ate risks for Russia.” 74 But sin
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Neither is this just rhetoric. As o
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Since then Deputy Foreign Minister
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The radical changes that have occur
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tary’s viewpoint. Patrushev told
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In responding to a question from Pu
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strike even in a preventive or pree
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longer guarantee a retaliatory resp
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tive entourages. Such trends are da
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standpoint its perception is a vali
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this problem and make the Fleet Rus
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tedly self-inflated status that it
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The following analysis from 2004 to
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Consequently, 162 Vasilenko also st
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inferiority vis-à-vis U.S. and Chi
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eductions will continue. Most likel
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If Russian leaders are to decrease
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14. “Failure to build a professio
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37. Moscow, Russia, Interfax-AVN On
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59. Open Source Committee, OSC Anal
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78. Open Source Center, “Russians
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99. “Russia To Allocate $35.3 Bil
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121. Jussi Kontinen, “Russia Plan
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143. Litovkin, “We Didn’t Send
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nid Ivashov on Russian Foreign Poli
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Sixth, Russian policymakers can iss
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U.S. surface ships and attack subma
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arsenal, as well as approximately a
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the Russian military has continued
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heads, instead it is possible to ma
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it endangers the Russian state (a p
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particular, Russian Government repr
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Poland will once again come under i
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to host U.S. BMD facilities, Russia
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systems. U.S. ballistic missile and
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Russian Government abandoned its de
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Later that year, Putin told leading
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a U.S.-NATO attack. In his May 2006
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The Obama administration also decid
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treaty monitoring by prohibiting ac
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The main Russian military newspaper
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more secure locations. 80 Russian o
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Any proposals for increased transpa
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emaining props of Russia’s great
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many and Japan in the generations a
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2010, available from news.kremlin.r
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32. Cited in Peter Finn, “Antimis
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48. Viktor Myasnikov, Vladimir Ivan
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asp?SHORTCUT=695; John Edwards and
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81. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
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CHAPTER 9 NEW START AND NONPROLIFER
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number of launchers to a maximum of
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U.S. plan for missile defenses depl
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tual deployment of weapons for conv
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and Air Force. 20 Russia’s need f
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war. The conflict also served as a
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Brazil, China, Japan, South Korea,
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perceived battlefield desperation.
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(CBT); to mobilize international su
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linear to nonlinear strategies for
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Data Analysis. Current and New STAR
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Using the numbers in Table 3-1 as p
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Figure 9-2. Russian Surviving and R
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The results summarized in Figures 9
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intended as predictions of actual f
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CONCLUSION New START and other mani
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ty,” Opening Statement before the
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Talbott, “A better base for cutti
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20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Me
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35. “Military dangers” create c
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and Future of Nuclear Weapons, New
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CHAPTER 10 RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POSTU
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Russian foreign policy commentary o
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jor component of Russia’s geostra
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many in 1941, Gareev pointed to the
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By the spring of 2009, a number of
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structures, early warning systems,
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ghanistan, were part of an effort t
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design bureau in Moscow and the pro
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weapons by India and Pakistan in 19
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Kuril islands. In both Manchuria an
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There were, of course, all sorts of
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Australian experts concluded was fi
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however, Chinese military moderniza
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cise, General Makarov stated that:
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commitment to make Russia into an i
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cruiser Petr Velikii to observe a m
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as effectively defenseless against
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nal threats, but the real problem i
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cused Khramchikhin of “playing wi
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that included not only the Russian
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27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
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47. This process has been addressed
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66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
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terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
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editor of Military Affairs, as assi
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and the Institute of World Economy
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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