Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future - Strategic ...

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4. Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation, February 5, 2010, www.kremlin.ru, Open Source Center, Foreign Broadcast Information Service Central Eurasia (Henceforth FBIS SOV), February 9, 2010. 5. Ilya Kedrov, “An Expert Evaluation: A Universal Armored Vehicle; The Infantry Needs a Fundamentally New Combat Vehicle and Not a Taxi to the Forward Edge of the Battle Area,” Moscow, Russia, Voyenno-Promyshlenny Kuryer Online, in Russian, May 26, 2010, FBIS SOV, June 4, 2010. 6. Artem Troitsky, “Interview With CINC Ground Troops General of the Army Vladimir Anatolyevich Boldyrev,” Moscow, Russia, Voyenno-Promyshlennyi Kuryer, in Russian, October 1, 2008, FBIS SOV, October 19, 2008. 7. Kedrov. 8. For an example of this nostalgia for Stalin’s leadership structure of 1941-45, see Colonel V. V. Natvichuk and Colonel A. L. Khryapin (Ret.), “A Strategic Deterrence System Under New Conditions,” Military Thought, No. 1, 2010, pp. 43-49. 9. Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation. 10. Interview With Russian Federation Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, Moscow, Russia, Izvestiya, in Russian, October, 14, 2009, FBIS SOV, October 14, 2009; David Novak, “Report: Russia To Allow Pre-Emptive Nukes,” Associated Press, October 14, 2009. 11. Kedrov. 12. “Putin Says Russia will build weapons to offset planned US missile defences,” December 29, 2009, available from www. guardian.co.uk/world/2009/dec/29/nuclear-weapons-russia. 13. Speech at an Expanded Meeting of the Defense Ministry Board, March 5, 2010, available from eng.kremlin.ru/speeches/2010/03/05/2058_type82913_224669.html. 349
14. “Failure to build a professional army, return to conscription,” Moscow, Russia, Interfax, in English, May 26, 2010. 15. Ibid. 16. “Share of Modern Weaponry in Russian Military Must Be 30% by 2015-Medvedev,” RIA Novosti, May 24, available from 2010,en.rian.ru/military_news/20100524/159135253.html. 17. Maria Antonova, “Kudrin Signals Steep Spending Cuts,” The Moscow Times, April 7, 2010. 18. Pavel Felgenhauer, “Russia Struggles to Modernize Its Military,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, June 10, 2010. 19. Moscow, Russia, Interfax, in English, June 3, 2010, FBIS SOV, June 4, 2010 CEP20100607964184. 20. Ibid.; Moscow, Russia, Inteerfax, in English, June 2010, FBIS SOV, CEP 20100607964287. 21. Vladislav Inozemtsev, “Then Most Modernized,” Moscow, Russia, Vedomosti Online, in Russian, August 9, 2010, FBIS SOV, August 19, 2010. 22. Richard Weitz, “Strategic Posture Review: Russia Resurgent,” World Politics Review, January-February 2009, pp. 58-59. 23. Martin Sieff, “Russia Reveals New 10-year Arms Plan to Upgrade Armed Forces,” UPI, January 20, 2009, available from www.upi.com. 24. Dmitry Litovkin, “The Army Will Become a Trillionaire,” Moscow, Russia, Izvestiya, in Russian, January 20, 2009, FBIS SOV, January 20, 2009. 25. Sieff. 26. Stephen Blank, “The Political Economy of the Russian Defense Sector,” Jan Leijhonhielm and Frederik Westerlund, eds., Russian Power Structures: Present and Future Roles in Russian Politics, Stockholm, Sweden: Swedish Defense Research Agency, 350
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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
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INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
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future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
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CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
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States (CIS). For a number of reaso
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with nuclear weapons alone. General
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cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
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PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
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sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
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its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
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The words about the priority of nuc
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If the constant failures by the Bul
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LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
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prepare themselves against.” 51 A
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that day the directorates were enga
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USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
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2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
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28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
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53. “The Military Doctrine of the
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mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
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1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
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Implementation. Chief of the Genera
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has not been followed by any obviou
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ficers compared with society and th
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Many of these challenges are unlike
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Institute, examined some of these i
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of brigades in the table of organiz
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The performance of the brigades, fo
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employment will be effective when t
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RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
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The Search for the “New:” Defin
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on states; individual states violat
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almost verbatim. The third threat,
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ministry working group. Army-Genera
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Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
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Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
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identifying the intentions and fore
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
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United States, Russia is in a diffe
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mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
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Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
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as among Alliance members, future B
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in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
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fearing that, unless handled sensit
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of strategic engagement with Russia
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6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
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28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
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44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
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Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
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Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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tary and foreign policy, many polit
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In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
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1970s had long-term effects on late
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ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
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educing strategic armaments and eve
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Internationally, the RF earned a du
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itary-political relations with West
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The situation in the armed forces t
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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In the latter case, they expected o
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As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
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facilitate the elimination of weapo
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Putin saw added opportunities for p
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the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
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sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
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and NATO provocations.” In partic
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econsider its key postulates. Alrea
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CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
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eady developing the theory of strat
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termination of the Cold War and the
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goals and the promise “to extend
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• Reforms of the army, law-enforc
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5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
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29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
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45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
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62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
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71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
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90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
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lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
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125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
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The positive shift in relations coi
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and in other public statements that
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tagonist of the cause for dismantli
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mobilization. 11 It is possible to
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Since the collapse of the Union of
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avoid the need to act on this rheto
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the technology behind its modern ai
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duumvirate might be modified or aba
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to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
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Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
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10. A more detailed analysis of thi
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analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
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CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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ery vehicles is apparently below th
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out as to whether it will be able t
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that they could theoretically affec
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cause Russia can respond with nucle
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states, and Nordic countries to tha
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should be more properly translated
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as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
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cautious attitude toward missile de
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few years later, demonstrated that
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exercises since 1999. All of them w
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2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
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fewer paragraphs about the use of n
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Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
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and verifiable treaty on TNW was at
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ity is regarded as an advantage tha
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tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
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The pace and the success rate for e
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Even more remote is the plan to dev
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construction of the first submarine
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tion of that leg was still minimal.
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where between Tu-22M3 and heavy bom
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weapons guarantee Russia’s securi
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of information about plans turned o
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Quite paradoxically, another, equal
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troversy over missile defense. In h
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A positive element in all the confl
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from submarines is likely to compli
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2005, two more are close to complet
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time) is practically never mentione
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from Alaska, “but they will not b
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porting of an even more expensive p
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5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
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20. A. Khryapin and V. Afanasiev,
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(“The God of War Does Not Retire
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50. For a recent statement to that
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closely fit one of first strike sce
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CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
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completely out of proportion to its
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its conventional military force to
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especially in the strategic nuclear
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in the NSS and brings it close to h
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wars. However, given expressions of
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equate command and control capabili
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weapons. The number of commands and
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upgraded warplanes, 20 to 25 milita
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the fact that the economy and infra
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The threat environment fabricated b
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There are aspects to their nuclear
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that are likely to result in greate
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ope. Recently, Moscow even objected
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8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broa
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31. Colonel General Alexander Zelin
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policy context, suggests that very
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Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
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Page 317 and 318: THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
Page 319 and 320: Not only did Serdyukov accept this
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Page 337 and 338: In responding to a question from Pu
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Page 353 and 354: Consequently, 162 Vasilenko also st
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Page 363 and 364: 37. Moscow, Russia, Interfax-AVN On
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Page 377 and 378: Sixth, Russian policymakers can iss
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Any proposals for increased transpa
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emaining props of Russia’s great
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many and Japan in the generations a
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2010, available from news.kremlin.r
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32. Cited in Peter Finn, “Antimis
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48. Viktor Myasnikov, Vladimir Ivan
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asp?SHORTCUT=695; John Edwards and
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81. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
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CHAPTER 9 NEW START AND NONPROLIFER
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number of launchers to a maximum of
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U.S. plan for missile defenses depl
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tual deployment of weapons for conv
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and Air Force. 20 Russia’s need f
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war. The conflict also served as a
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Brazil, China, Japan, South Korea,
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perceived battlefield desperation.
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(CBT); to mobilize international su
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linear to nonlinear strategies for
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Data Analysis. Current and New STAR
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Using the numbers in Table 3-1 as p
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Figure 9-2. Russian Surviving and R
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The results summarized in Figures 9
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intended as predictions of actual f
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CONCLUSION New START and other mani
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ty,” Opening Statement before the
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Talbott, “A better base for cutti
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20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Me
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35. “Military dangers” create c
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and Future of Nuclear Weapons, New
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CHAPTER 10 RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POSTU
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Russian foreign policy commentary o
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jor component of Russia’s geostra
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many in 1941, Gareev pointed to the
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By the spring of 2009, a number of
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structures, early warning systems,
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ghanistan, were part of an effort t
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design bureau in Moscow and the pro
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weapons by India and Pakistan in 19
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Kuril islands. In both Manchuria an
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There were, of course, all sorts of
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Australian experts concluded was fi
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however, Chinese military moderniza
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cise, General Makarov stated that:
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commitment to make Russia into an i
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cruiser Petr Velikii to observe a m
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as effectively defenseless against
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nal threats, but the real problem i
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cused Khramchikhin of “playing wi
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that included not only the Russian
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27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
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47. This process has been addressed
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66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
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terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
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editor of Military Affairs, as assi
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and the Institute of World Economy
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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