Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future - Strategic ...

consequences of NATO enlargement, the apprehension
about this treaty reflects Russian concerns about
China’s (and Iran’s) missile buildup. As Russian officials
from Putin on down have argued, other countries
to Russia’s south and east are building such missiles,
but America and Russia are debarred from doing so.
In October 2007:
Mr. Putin said that Russia would leave the INF treaty
unless it was turned into a global agreement to constrain
other states, including those ’located in our near
vicinity.’ He did not identify any country but Iran
and North Korea are within the range covered by the
treaty. Dmitri Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, later acknowledged
that China, India and Pakistan had medium-range
missile capabilities. He insisted that Mr.
Putin was concerned about an imbalance of regional
security rather than any specific threat. 158
But these remarks also demonstrates that Moscow
cannot publicly reveal or confront its true threat
perceptions and consequently blames Washington
for its failure to take Russian interests into account.
Thus, while Moscow had “privately told Washington
it wanted medium range missiles to counter Iranian
threats, it publicly argued that the lack of Iranian missiles
meant the U.S. did not need a defense system.” 159
As part of this debate, General Vladimir Vasilenko
raised the issue of Russian withdrawal from the treaty
after Sergei Ivanov did so in 2005, though it is difficult
to see what Russia would gain by a withdrawal from
that treaty. 160 Furthermore, it is by no means clear
that Moscow could regenerate production for either
IRBMs or ICBMs, because of production difficulties.
Therefore, a withdrawal from the treaty could actually
further diminish Russian security, not enhance it. 161
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