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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future - Strategic ...

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st<strong>and</strong>point its perception is a valid one <strong>and</strong> it may also<br />

have merit in more objective analyses. For example,<br />

David McDonough’s analysis of U.S. nuclear deployments<br />

in the Pacific Ocean states that:<br />

The increased deployment of hard-target kill weapons<br />

in the Pacific could only aggravate <strong>Russian</strong> concerns<br />

over the survivability of its own nuclear arsenal. These<br />

silo-busters would be ideal to destroy the few hundred<br />

ICBM silos <strong>and</strong> Russia’s infamously hardened<br />

comm<strong>and</strong>-<strong>and</strong>-control facilities as well as help reduce<br />

any warning time for <strong>Russian</strong> strategic forces, given<br />

their possible deployment <strong>and</strong> depressed trajectory.<br />

This is critical for a decapitation mission, due to the<br />

highly centralized comm<strong>and</strong>-<strong>and</strong>-control structure of<br />

the <strong>Russian</strong> posture, as well as to pre-empt any possible<br />

retaliation from the most on-alert <strong>Russian</strong> strategic<br />

forces. The Pacific also has a unique feature in that it<br />

is an area where gaps in <strong>Russian</strong> early-warning radar<br />

<strong>and</strong> the continued deterioration of its early-warning<br />

satellite coverage have made it effectively blind to<br />

any attack from this theatre. This open-attack corridor<br />

would make any increase in Pacific-deployed SLBMs<br />

appear especially threatening. 131<br />

Similarly, already in 2003 when the first reports of<br />

the Pentagon’s interest in new low-yield <strong>and</strong> bunker<br />

busting nuclear weapons became public, <strong>Russian</strong> analysts<br />

warned that even if such programs were merely<br />

in a research stage, they would add to the hostile drift<br />

of Russo-American relations. 132 Events since then have<br />

only confirmed this assessment <strong>and</strong> their warning.<br />

A second major concern is the strengthening of the<br />

U.S.-Japan alliance in the twin forms of joint missile<br />

defenses <strong>and</strong> the apparent consolidation of a tripartite<br />

alliance including Australia <strong>and</strong> South Korea, if not<br />

India. For both Russia <strong>and</strong> China, one of the negative<br />

334

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