Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future - Strategic ...

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47. This process has been addressed in the work of Christina Chuan, “Nuclear Issues in the Far Eastern Federal Okrug,” in James Clay Molts, Vladimir A. Olav, and Adam M. Stolberg, eds., Preventing Nuclear Meltdown: Managing Decentralization of Russia’s Nuclear Complex, Aldershot, UK, and Burlington, VT: Ashgate, 2004, pp. 105-134. 48. Vladimir Pyle, “Spasitel’myi Kitai?” Orientir, No. 3, March 2009, pp. 8-11. 49. “Far East looks to China for investment,” The Russian Journal, October 10, 2003, available from www.russiajournal.com/ node/16455. 50. Konstantin Preobrazhensky, “Through Russia With Kim Jong Il,” North Korean Review, Vol. 1, No. 1, February 29, 2004, available from www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=26321. 51. Alexander Vorontsov, “Current Russia-North Korea Relations: Challenges and Achievements,” Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, February 2007, available from www.brookings.edu/papers/2007/02northkorea_vorontsov.aspx. 52. “Russian Specialists Arrive in S. Korea to Probe Warship Sinking,” RIA Novosti, May 31, 2010; “Russia, N. Korea to Continue Consultations to Settle Inter-Korean Conflict, RIA Novosti, May 28, 2010; and “Russia, South Korea to Discuss Cheonan Issue Thursday,” RIA Novosti, June 2, 2010. 53. Asmus, A Little War that Shook the World. 54. Mikhail Barabanov, Anton Lavrov, and Viacheslav Tseluiko, Tanki augusta: Sbornik statei, Moscow, Russia: Tsentr Analiza Strategii i tekhnologii, 2009. 55. Valerii Shcheblanin, “Voennaia bezopasnost’ na vostok Rossii budet obespechena,” Buriatiia, February 20, 2010. 56. Roger McDermott, “‘Virtual’ Defense of the Russian Far East, Vostok 2010,” Eurasian Daily Monitor, Vol. VII, No. 129, July 6, 2010. 501
57. “Vostok-2010 bez konkretnykh protivnikov,” Interfax, June 28, 2010 . 58. Hypothetical opponents are not new and are not the product of post-modern political correctness. Those familiar with the exercises of the U.S. Army after World War II will remember “FM 30-102, Handbook on Aggressor Military Forces,” published in 1947, which stated: “The country, peoples and forces described herein are entirely fictitious. Any resemblance to existing countries or forces is inadvertent and coincidental.” That notional opponent, “Circle Trigon” with its Esperanto-speaking opposing forces continued to be used in US Army exercises into the 1970s. Such an official orientation did not prevent U.S. forces from exercising against a notional opponent that looked something like the Red Army, and by the 1980s the OPFOR (opposing force) at the National Training Center had evolved into a very good replication of a Soviet motorized rifle regiment. Thus, hypothetical opponents can over time evolve into probable opponents. 59. “V Rossii nachinaiutsia masshtabnye ucheniia ‘Vostok-2010’,” RBC.ru, June 29, 2010. 60. “Opiat’ bez protivnika?” Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie, July 2, 2002. 61. “Serdiukov ne vevel ustraivat’ voinu dvukh armii,” Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie, July 9, 2010. 62. “Dmitrii Medvedev postavil pered dal’nom vostokom glavnye zadachi,” Respublika Armeniia, July 7, 2010. 63. Aleksandr’ Sadchikov, “Chetvertyi pokhod na Vostok,” Izvestiia, July 9, 2010. 64. “V khode uchenii ‘Vostok-2010’ Rossiiskie voennye obideli Iaponiiu s osobym pazmakhom,” NEWSru, July 7, 2010. 65. Aleksandr’ Kolesnichenko, “Ucheniia, ukrytye tumanom,” Novye izvestiia, July 5, 2010. 502
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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
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INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
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future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
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CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
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States (CIS). For a number of reaso
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with nuclear weapons alone. General
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cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
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PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
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sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
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its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
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The words about the priority of nuc
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If the constant failures by the Bul
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LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
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prepare themselves against.” 51 A
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that day the directorates were enga
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USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
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2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
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28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
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53. “The Military Doctrine of the
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mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
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1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
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Implementation. Chief of the Genera
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has not been followed by any obviou
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ficers compared with society and th
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Many of these challenges are unlike
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Institute, examined some of these i
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of brigades in the table of organiz
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The performance of the brigades, fo
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employment will be effective when t
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RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
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The Search for the “New:” Defin
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on states; individual states violat
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almost verbatim. The third threat,
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ministry working group. Army-Genera
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Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
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Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
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identifying the intentions and fore
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
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United States, Russia is in a diffe
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mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
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Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
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as among Alliance members, future B
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in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
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fearing that, unless handled sensit
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of strategic engagement with Russia
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6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
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28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
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44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
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Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
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Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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tary and foreign policy, many polit
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In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
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1970s had long-term effects on late
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ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
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educing strategic armaments and eve
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Internationally, the RF earned a du
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itary-political relations with West
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The situation in the armed forces t
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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In the latter case, they expected o
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As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
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facilitate the elimination of weapo
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Putin saw added opportunities for p
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the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
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sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
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and NATO provocations.” In partic
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econsider its key postulates. Alrea
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CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
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eady developing the theory of strat
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termination of the Cold War and the
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goals and the promise “to extend
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• Reforms of the army, law-enforc
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5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
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29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
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45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
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62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
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71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
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90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
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lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
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125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
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The positive shift in relations coi
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and in other public statements that
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tagonist of the cause for dismantli
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mobilization. 11 It is possible to
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Since the collapse of the Union of
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avoid the need to act on this rheto
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the technology behind its modern ai
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duumvirate might be modified or aba
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to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
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Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
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10. A more detailed analysis of thi
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analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
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CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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ery vehicles is apparently below th
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out as to whether it will be able t
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that they could theoretically affec
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cause Russia can respond with nucle
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states, and Nordic countries to tha
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should be more properly translated
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as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
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cautious attitude toward missile de
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few years later, demonstrated that
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exercises since 1999. All of them w
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2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
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fewer paragraphs about the use of n
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Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
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and verifiable treaty on TNW was at
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ity is regarded as an advantage tha
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tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
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The pace and the success rate for e
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Even more remote is the plan to dev
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construction of the first submarine
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tion of that leg was still minimal.
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where between Tu-22M3 and heavy bom
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weapons guarantee Russia’s securi
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of information about plans turned o
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Quite paradoxically, another, equal
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troversy over missile defense. In h
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A positive element in all the confl
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from submarines is likely to compli
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2005, two more are close to complet
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time) is practically never mentione
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from Alaska, “but they will not b
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porting of an even more expensive p
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5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
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20. A. Khryapin and V. Afanasiev,
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(“The God of War Does Not Retire
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50. For a recent statement to that
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closely fit one of first strike sce
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CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
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completely out of proportion to its
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its conventional military force to
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especially in the strategic nuclear
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in the NSS and brings it close to h
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wars. However, given expressions of
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equate command and control capabili
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weapons. The number of commands and
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upgraded warplanes, 20 to 25 milita
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the fact that the economy and infra
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The threat environment fabricated b
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There are aspects to their nuclear
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that are likely to result in greate
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ope. Recently, Moscow even objected
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8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broa
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31. Colonel General Alexander Zelin
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policy context, suggests that very
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Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
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systems, our partners may come to f
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increased purchases of weapons and
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naval bases. 27 Yet the defense sec
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state expenditures will supposedly
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THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
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Not only did Serdyukov accept this
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the Strategic Missile (Rocket) Forc
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fight using such weapons. Consequen
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the global and regional levels enta
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ate risks for Russia.” 74 But sin
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Neither is this just rhetoric. As o
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Since then Deputy Foreign Minister
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The radical changes that have occur
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tary’s viewpoint. Patrushev told
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In responding to a question from Pu
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strike even in a preventive or pree
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longer guarantee a retaliatory resp
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tive entourages. Such trends are da
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standpoint its perception is a vali
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this problem and make the Fleet Rus
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tedly self-inflated status that it
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The following analysis from 2004 to
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Consequently, 162 Vasilenko also st
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inferiority vis-à-vis U.S. and Chi
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eductions will continue. Most likel
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If Russian leaders are to decrease
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14. “Failure to build a professio
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37. Moscow, Russia, Interfax-AVN On
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59. Open Source Committee, OSC Anal
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78. Open Source Center, “Russians
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99. “Russia To Allocate $35.3 Bil
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121. Jussi Kontinen, “Russia Plan
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143. Litovkin, “We Didn’t Send
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nid Ivashov on Russian Foreign Poli
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Sixth, Russian policymakers can iss
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U.S. surface ships and attack subma
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arsenal, as well as approximately a
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the Russian military has continued
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heads, instead it is possible to ma
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it endangers the Russian state (a p
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particular, Russian Government repr
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Poland will once again come under i
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to host U.S. BMD facilities, Russia
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systems. U.S. ballistic missile and
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Russian Government abandoned its de
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Later that year, Putin told leading
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a U.S.-NATO attack. In his May 2006
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The Obama administration also decid
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treaty monitoring by prohibiting ac
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The main Russian military newspaper
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more secure locations. 80 Russian o
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Any proposals for increased transpa
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emaining props of Russia’s great
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many and Japan in the generations a
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2010, available from news.kremlin.r
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32. Cited in Peter Finn, “Antimis
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48. Viktor Myasnikov, Vladimir Ivan
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asp?SHORTCUT=695; John Edwards and
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81. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
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CHAPTER 9 NEW START AND NONPROLIFER
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number of launchers to a maximum of
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U.S. plan for missile defenses depl
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tual deployment of weapons for conv
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and Air Force. 20 Russia’s need f
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war. The conflict also served as a
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Brazil, China, Japan, South Korea,
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perceived battlefield desperation.
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(CBT); to mobilize international su
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linear to nonlinear strategies for
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Data Analysis. Current and New STAR
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Using the numbers in Table 3-1 as p
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Figure 9-2. Russian Surviving and R
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The results summarized in Figures 9
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intended as predictions of actual f
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CONCLUSION New START and other mani
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ty,” Opening Statement before the
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Page 464 and 465: 20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Me
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Page 470 and 471: CHAPTER 10 RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POSTU
Page 472 and 473: Russian foreign policy commentary o
Page 474 and 475: jor component of Russia’s geostra
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Page 478 and 479: By the spring of 2009, a number of
Page 480 and 481: structures, early warning systems,
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Page 490 and 491: There were, of course, all sorts of
Page 492 and 493: Australian experts concluded was fi
Page 494 and 495: however, Chinese military moderniza
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Page 498 and 499: commitment to make Russia into an i
Page 500 and 501: cruiser Petr Velikii to observe a m
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Page 504 and 505: nal threats, but the real problem i
Page 506 and 507: cused Khramchikhin of “playing wi
Page 508 and 509: that included not only the Russian
Page 510 and 511: 27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
Page 514: 66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
Page 517 and 518: terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
Page 519 and 520: editor of Military Affairs, as assi
Page 521 and 522: and the Institute of World Economy
Page 523 and 524: U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
Page 525: U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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