Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future - Strategic ...

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48. Colin Gray, House of Cards, Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1991; Keith Payne, Deterrence In the Second Nuclear Age, Lexington, KY: University Press of Kentucky, 1996; Keith Payne, Fallacies of Cold War Deterrence and a New Direction, Lexington, KY: University Press of Kentucky, 2001; Alexei Arbatov and General (Ret.) Vladimir Dvorkin, Beyond Nuclear Deterrence: Transforming the U.S.-Russian Equation, Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006, John F. Steinbruner, Foreword. 49. Patrick M. Morgan, Deterrence Now, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2003, pp. 26-32. 50. Ibid., p. 66. 51. Moscow, Russia, Agentstvo Voyennykh Novostey Internet Version, in Russian, September 10, 2008, FBIS SOV, September 10, 2008. 52. Ibid. 53. Moscow, Russia, ITAR-TASS, in English, April 6, 2010, FBIS SOV, April 6, 2010. 54. Ibid. 55. “Russia Could Focus On Tactical Nuclear Weapons For Subs,” RIA Novosti, March 23, 2009, available from en.rian.ru/russia/20090323/120688454.html. 56. “Bildt Plays Down Russian Nuclear Threat,” The Local, August 18, 2008,” available from www.thelocal.se/13780/20080818; Mark Franchetti, “Russia’s New Nuclear Challenge to Europe,” Times Online, August 17, 2008, available from www.timesonline. co.uk/tol/news/worldeurope/article4547883.ece. 57. “Russian Military Chief Defends Nonstrategic Nukes,” Global Security Newswire, December 17, 2008, available from gsn. nti.org. 58. Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation. 353
59. Open Source Committee, OSC Analysis, August 1, 2008, FBIS SOV, August 4, 2008. 60. Martin Sieff, “Russians Bet On Dems’ Passion For Arms Control,” December 19, 2008, available from www.upi.com; “US Sen Lugar Hopeful On Renewing Russia Nuclear Arms Treaty,” Agence France-Presse, December 19, 2008, give the two conflicting impressions as to whether or not Russia is tying those missile defenses to achievement of a strategic nuclear missile treaty. 61. Moscow, Russia, ITAR-TASS in English, September 11, 2008, FBIS SOV, September 11, 2008. 62. Pavel Podvig, “Revolution in Military Affairs: Challenges to Russia’s Security,” Paper Presented at the VTT Energy Styx Seminar, Helsinki, Finland, September 4, 2001, available from www.armsocntol.ru/Podvig/eng/publications/misc/20010904styx.shtm. 63. Moscow, Russia, Zvezda Television, in Russian, September 11, 2008, FBIS SOV, September 11, 2008. 64. “Interview with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Warsaw, Poland, Gazeta Wyborcza, September 11, 2008; and Moscow, Russia, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Internet Version, in English, September 15, 2008, FBIS SOV, September 15, 2008. 65. Ibid. 66. Dmitri Solovyov, “Russia Says It Must Have Nuclear Parity With U.S.,” Reuters, December 7, 2007; Moscow, Russia, Interfax, in English, October 1, 2004, FBIS SOV, October 1, 2004. 67. Transcript of Remarks and Response to Media Questions by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at Press Conference in Relation to the Upcoming Signing of a Treaty between Russia and the USA on Measures to Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, Moscow, Russia, April 6, 2010, available from www.mid.ru. 68. Unclassified Statement of Lieutenant General Patrick J. O’Reilly, USA, Director, Missile Defense Agency, Before the House Armed Services Committee Regarding Missile Defense in Europe, October 1, 2009. 354
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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
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INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
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future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
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CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
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States (CIS). For a number of reaso
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with nuclear weapons alone. General
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cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
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PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
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sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
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its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
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The words about the priority of nuc
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If the constant failures by the Bul
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LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
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prepare themselves against.” 51 A
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that day the directorates were enga
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USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
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2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
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28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
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53. “The Military Doctrine of the
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mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
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1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
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Implementation. Chief of the Genera
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has not been followed by any obviou
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ficers compared with society and th
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Many of these challenges are unlike
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Institute, examined some of these i
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of brigades in the table of organiz
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The performance of the brigades, fo
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employment will be effective when t
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RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
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The Search for the “New:” Defin
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on states; individual states violat
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almost verbatim. The third threat,
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ministry working group. Army-Genera
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Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
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Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
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identifying the intentions and fore
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
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United States, Russia is in a diffe
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mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
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Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
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as among Alliance members, future B
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in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
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fearing that, unless handled sensit
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of strategic engagement with Russia
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6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
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28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
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44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
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Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
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Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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tary and foreign policy, many polit
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In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
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1970s had long-term effects on late
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ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
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educing strategic armaments and eve
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Internationally, the RF earned a du
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itary-political relations with West
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The situation in the armed forces t
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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In the latter case, they expected o
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As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
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facilitate the elimination of weapo
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Putin saw added opportunities for p
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the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
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sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
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and NATO provocations.” In partic
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econsider its key postulates. Alrea
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CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
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eady developing the theory of strat
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termination of the Cold War and the
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goals and the promise “to extend
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• Reforms of the army, law-enforc
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5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
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29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
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45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
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62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
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71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
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90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
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lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
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125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
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The positive shift in relations coi
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and in other public statements that
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tagonist of the cause for dismantli
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mobilization. 11 It is possible to
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Since the collapse of the Union of
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avoid the need to act on this rheto
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the technology behind its modern ai
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duumvirate might be modified or aba
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to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
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Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
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10. A more detailed analysis of thi
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analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
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CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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ery vehicles is apparently below th
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out as to whether it will be able t
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that they could theoretically affec
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cause Russia can respond with nucle
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states, and Nordic countries to tha
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should be more properly translated
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as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
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cautious attitude toward missile de
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few years later, demonstrated that
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exercises since 1999. All of them w
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2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
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fewer paragraphs about the use of n
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Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
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and verifiable treaty on TNW was at
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ity is regarded as an advantage tha
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tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
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The pace and the success rate for e
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Even more remote is the plan to dev
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construction of the first submarine
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tion of that leg was still minimal.
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where between Tu-22M3 and heavy bom
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weapons guarantee Russia’s securi
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of information about plans turned o
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Quite paradoxically, another, equal
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troversy over missile defense. In h
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A positive element in all the confl
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from submarines is likely to compli
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2005, two more are close to complet
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time) is practically never mentione
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from Alaska, “but they will not b
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porting of an even more expensive p
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5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
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20. A. Khryapin and V. Afanasiev,
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(“The God of War Does Not Retire
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50. For a recent statement to that
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closely fit one of first strike sce
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CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
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completely out of proportion to its
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its conventional military force to
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especially in the strategic nuclear
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in the NSS and brings it close to h
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wars. However, given expressions of
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equate command and control capabili
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weapons. The number of commands and
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upgraded warplanes, 20 to 25 milita
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the fact that the economy and infra
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The threat environment fabricated b
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There are aspects to their nuclear
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that are likely to result in greate
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ope. Recently, Moscow even objected
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8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broa
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31. Colonel General Alexander Zelin
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policy context, suggests that very
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Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
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systems, our partners may come to f
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increased purchases of weapons and
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Page 317 and 318: THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
Page 319 and 320: Not only did Serdyukov accept this
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Page 337 and 338: In responding to a question from Pu
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many and Japan in the generations a
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2010, available from news.kremlin.r
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32. Cited in Peter Finn, “Antimis
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48. Viktor Myasnikov, Vladimir Ivan
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asp?SHORTCUT=695; John Edwards and
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81. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
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CHAPTER 9 NEW START AND NONPROLIFER
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number of launchers to a maximum of
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U.S. plan for missile defenses depl
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tual deployment of weapons for conv
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and Air Force. 20 Russia’s need f
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war. The conflict also served as a
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Brazil, China, Japan, South Korea,
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perceived battlefield desperation.
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(CBT); to mobilize international su
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linear to nonlinear strategies for
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Data Analysis. Current and New STAR
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Using the numbers in Table 3-1 as p
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Figure 9-2. Russian Surviving and R
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The results summarized in Figures 9
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intended as predictions of actual f
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CONCLUSION New START and other mani
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ty,” Opening Statement before the
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Talbott, “A better base for cutti
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20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Me
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35. “Military dangers” create c
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and Future of Nuclear Weapons, New
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CHAPTER 10 RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POSTU
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Russian foreign policy commentary o
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jor component of Russia’s geostra
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many in 1941, Gareev pointed to the
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By the spring of 2009, a number of
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structures, early warning systems,
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ghanistan, were part of an effort t
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design bureau in Moscow and the pro
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weapons by India and Pakistan in 19
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Kuril islands. In both Manchuria an
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There were, of course, all sorts of
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Australian experts concluded was fi
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however, Chinese military moderniza
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cise, General Makarov stated that:
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commitment to make Russia into an i
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cruiser Petr Velikii to observe a m
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as effectively defenseless against
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nal threats, but the real problem i
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cused Khramchikhin of “playing wi
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that included not only the Russian
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27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
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47. This process has been addressed
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66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
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terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
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editor of Military Affairs, as assi
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and the Institute of World Economy
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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