Educational Research - the Ethics and Aesthetics of Statistics

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104 E. Hemelsoet definitions are used and again it should be stressed that policy differences cannot be overcome. Some figures are even calculated on the basis of extrapolation of the number of irregular migrants that reached their destination countries by looking at the number of migrants arrested at the borders. Based on discussions with border control authorities, a multiplier is defined (for example, multiplying 60,000 border apprehensions in 1993 multiplied by 4–6, cf. Widgren, 1994). Estimations then hardly seem to be more than mere ‘guesstimates’ as they are to a large extent based on ungrounded assumptions. Moreover, with international comparisons, there are always added difficulties when comparing the different datasets as they measure different things, using different systems, at different times and by different authorities (Clarke, 2000). This does not keep researchers from drawing remarkable conclusions. It is recognised that ‘the review of efforts to estimate the size of irregular migration on a European level has shown that the numbers indicated are based on very rough estimates’ because ‘often we do not know which groups of irregular migrants are included in a stock estimate, nor do we know whether a flow estimate is meant to measure net inflows or gross inflows’ and ‘older studies are often quoted in newer studies, so that estimates appear to apply to the present, although they were made some years ago’ (Iglicka, in Kraler & Vogel, 2008, p. 17). Still, researchers say that ‘approximate comparability is better than no data at all in a situation where a high degree of comparability may never be achieved’ (Vogel & Kovacheva, 2008, p. 17) or that ‘these estimates will greatly aid policy making’ (IPPR, 2006, p.9). Reference is made to policy: ‘In the public sphere, there is a general need to gather reliable information on important social phenomena, to determine whether or not the situation warrants any political action. [...] For governments, the perceived size of the phenomenon will have an important bearing on the justification for the expenditure of public resources on alternative uses’ (Jandl, 2004, p. 152). The idea that ‘approximate comparability is better than no data at all’ seems to count here as well. Given the far-reaching consequences at policy level, glossing over the large and to a great extent insurmountable problems that are related to estimating irregular migrant numbers is highly problematic. Or as Clarke (2000, p. 21) states ... whichever method of assessment is used, estimated numbers of irregular migrants are based on assumptions, many of which are either untested or maybe even untestable. The fact remains that unrecorded and irregular migration is, by its very definition, unquantified and, indeed, unquantifiable. Any figure generated is at best an educated guess. [...] And yet there are many pressures from policy makers, the media and other interest groups to come up with a quotable figure. When an estimated figure is ‘calculated’ no matter what warnings and disclaimers are attached to it, as has been seen a number of times in the last few years of growing interest in trafficking and ‘illegal’ migration, there is a danger that this figure is picked up and rapidly circulated and, before long, quoted as a fact. The nature of Clarke’s critique is clear, and goes beyond concrete problems related to particular methods. From a scientific perspective, there is a lack of reliability in the estimations obtained. To a certain extent, the phenomenon of irregular
7 To Frame the Unframable: Quantifying Irregular Migrants’ Presence 105 migration indeed is unquantifiable and the best that can be expected from these estimations is an educated guess. But the weight of these scientific arguments, which strive for objectivity, is limited in the politicised context of policy making. For some this is regrettable. It is true that one may find examples of research that is conducted to provide the rationalisation for a predetermined policy. In these cases, the outcomes of the research are known long before it has even begun. Research is used as an instrument to legitimise political choices. This is unacceptable but is not what is really at stake here. At the very least, the arguments in defence of using estimates should be taken seriously. A requirement for political action is a well-founded insight in the current state of affairs. To be able to deal with problems related to irregular migration, the nature of these problems requires clarification. Part of that job is to get an idea of the scope of the phenomenon, i.e. to ‘measure’ its ‘size’. The ‘love for numbers’ demonstrated by policy makers may then be an expression of sincere engagement with these problems, rather than a fast solution to legitimise decisions. The fact that ‘something has to be done’ by policy makers does not take away the fundamental critique on irregular migrants’ estimations. But it does mean that critics have to offer a possible alternative. If not, the argument that from a policy view ‘approximate comparability is better than no data at all’ is legitimate, although, from a scientific perspective, this is not always so. What is left from the critique now is twofold. First, the critique can serve as a ‘reminder’ for policy makers. It does so by stressing the importance of conceptual demarcation and underlining that the information provided by estimations is very limited. It is not the estimations that are the problem, but rather the fact that these numbers start to lead a life of their own. Policy makers should be aware of this danger and the limitations of estimations. Second, the critique may be a step-up to develop other research strategies. This refers to the idea that estimates are an insufficient condition to gain insight into the problems related to irregular migration. Again, this does not mean that they cannot be helpful; it only means that their contribution has to be put into perspective. Other questions and different kinds of (e.g. qualitative) method(ology)s may form a valuable supplement to the acquired numbers. This may therefore lead to alternative ways of approaching irregular migration. 7.3.2 The Homogenisation of Complexity The question of what can be expected from estimating irregular migrant numbers is currently being explicitly brought to the fore. The group of people involved is predominantly approached from a legal point of view that focuses on residence status. In this case, ‘irregularity’ serves as the benchmark of categorisation. The ethnicity, nationality, religion, native language, cultural background etc. of the people involved is barely considered, as from a policy perspective what is at stake is their legal status. For asylum seekers, things are slightly different. On arrival, attention is directed at political or personal reasons for taking refuge and nationality is
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Educational Research: The Ethics an
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Paul Smeyers · Marc Depaepe Editor
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Earlier Volumes in this Series Educ
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viii Contents 10 The Good, the Beau
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2 P. Smeyers and M. Depaepe their a
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4 P. Smeyers and M. Depaepe more fo
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6 P. Smeyers and M. Depaepe The cha
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8 P. Smeyers and M. Depaepe concern
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10 P. Smeyers and M. Depaepe appear
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Chapter 2 The Lure of Statistics fo
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2 The Lure of Statistics for Educat
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28 M. Depaepe of the Leuven Catholi
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30 M. Depaepe Tan’s final verdict
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32 M. Depaepe of methodological bot
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34 M. Depaepe tapping other sources
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36 M. Depaepe In the context of dem
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38 M. Depaepe combination. Moreover
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40 M. Depaepe 4. See Pelleriaux (19
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42 M. Depaepe Schneider, J. (2010).
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44 J.J.H. Dekker (see Section 4.4).
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46 J.J.H. Dekker from their own par
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48 J.J.H. Dekker a cohort study tha
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50 J.J.H. Dekker child” (Van IJze
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52 J.J.H. Dekker USA resulted in ev
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162 P. Smeyers to be told. Moreover
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164 P. Smeyers us’. It goes witho
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166 P. Smeyers at the basis of the
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168 P. Smeyers indeterminism, as we
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170 P. Smeyers are steps (a plan as
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172 P. Smeyers to the simple fact t
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174 P. Smeyers 6. The role of the a
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176 P. Smeyers conditions. It is in
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178 I. Munday etc. on a PowerPoint
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180 I. Munday To show how Derrida p
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182 I. Munday might talk of 20 bags
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184 I. Munday is unclear whether th
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186 I. Munday in numerals. This mig
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188 I. Munday We might also note th
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190 R. Smith ‘Statisticism’, on
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192 R. Smith identify, and twice in
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194 R. Smith of the final sentence
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196 R. Smith between admitting that
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198 R. Smith 7 www.equalitytrust.or
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200 R. Smith It is an interesting q
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202 R. Smith self-esteem, happiness
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204 R. Smith Reeves, R. (2009, Apri
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206 P. Standish Some students’ no
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208 P. Standish abstract ratio, wit
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210 P. Standish Rice $1.73 1 / 2 Mo
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212 P. Standish research none of us
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214 P. Standish of the products but
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216 About the Authors co-editor-in-
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218 About the Authors voor Wetensch
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220 Author Index Elkins, G. R., 190
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222 Author Index Silverman, J. G.,
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224 Subject Index I Inequality, 29-
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