Educational Research - the Ethics and Aesthetics of Statistics

74 N. Grube
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Good opinion WestGermans
Good opinion EastGermans
Fig. 5.5 ‘Do you have a good or bad opinion of the Federal Republic’s economic system?’
these norms, the data attest its rightness. If not, the minority part is interpreted as
pars sanior and the pollsters aim to convince the seduced majority through propaganda
and educational efforts. Even the mediatisation of polls is interwoven with
medial, economic and political power.
Nevertheless, with the creation of clear, almost dualistic ideological camps,
pollsters aimed to level social diversity in favour of a coherent national body. The
construction of a national narrative should enable intra- and international comparisons
and competition that intensify the national narrative. The simplification and
reduction of social complexity by charts and curves should serve to rationalise political
decision-making processes. But in contrast to this ambition, pollsters themselves
contribute to new hypes by writing and publishing alarming reports if unexpected
outliers confuse the expected course of the chart. Little support for the government,
little trust in democracy and/or social market economy motivate pollsters
to exaggerate warnings about an incalculable future (Köcher, 2008a, 2008b). And
it’s grotesque that these alarming warnings don’t question the pollsters’ abilities
to make predictions. Furthermore, these alarmist reports contradict the Anspruch
to rationalise the political decision-making process and the formation of opinion.
Unfortunately, they get a lot of public attention because the audience shall take data
and the pollsters’ promise to predict the future for granted.
Notes
1. Allensbach Archives, IfD-Report ‘Die Stimmung im Bundesgebiet’, No. 1, November
1950. IfD-Report ‘Die Stimmung im Bundesgebiet’ No. 2: Anwachsen der Opposition. Die
Entscheidung über die Wiederbewaffnung. November 1950.
2. Allensbach Archives, IfD-Report 2: Sonderumfrage Währungsreform I, 26.-30.6.1948. IfD-
Report 3: Sonderumfrage Währungsreform II, 17.-22. Juli 1948.
3. Allensbach Archives, History of the Institute: Advertising leaflet of the institute, 1st July 1948.