Educational Research - the Ethics and Aesthetics of Statistics

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168 P. Smeyers indeterminism, as well as those concerning the formulation of laws (among others under-determination; see also Note 1). What is important is to focus on the fact that in many cases we do not have enough facts to be able to construct a full explanation and we can never be sure that a new condition might not turn up: one can never exclude the possibility that a further relevant subdivision of a reference class might be necessary on the basis of additional knowledge. Moreover, an explanation requires a sufficient condition that is based on empirical evidence that something actually happened, and inference on the other hand refers to something in the future. To infer something that lies in the future not only presupposes that everything relevant has been taken into account but requires that the future replicate the past. Notwithstanding these difficulties, it seems that for a statistical-relevance model it is the amount of relevant information that counts; it consists of a probability distribution over a (maximum) homogeneous partition of an initial reference class (and thus is all about the gain in information it provides). So one answer to the question ‘why are we attracted to statistics?’ comes down to the fact that it helps us to find what is hidden (either a law, or a law-like generalization). We think that this hidden law may assist us in dealing with future problems. Therefore, though we are aware of the problems explanations in terms of causality are beset with, and we are knowledgeable about the limits of the use of statistics (and take these into account), there is no more trustworthy method to rely on when we want to know how things work (either in the natural or the social world). Let me remind you that I have bracketed of course (A), (B), (C), (D), (E), and (F). Of course, you and I may agree that what has been bracketed cannot in fact be bracketed. Therefore, the idea that there is no other more trustworthy method to rely on if we want to ‘know how things work’ may not get us very far. But let me also remind you that I am talking about attractiveness of statistics when it comes to ‘explaining’ things. This is notwithstanding what I have highlighted concerning the indebtedness of concepts to ‘what makes sense for us’ nor the different use that is sometimes made of statistics such as the descriptive function, also taking on board the problems associated with (E), i.e. the delineation of the concepts themselves. It is time to pause for a moment and consider the connotations that ‘investigation’ and ‘detection’ present us with. After all, researchers investigate, do they not? 11.3 On Crime Stories and Looking for the Truth There are many kinds of detective fiction, a format that is well suited to dramatic presentations and this results in the popularity of many television and film detectives. Particularly focusing on the latter one may want to distinguish (cf. also Wikepida) between the amateur detective (Marple, Fletcher), the private investigator (Holmes, Poirot), the police detective (Dalgliesh, Morse) and the forensic specialists (CSI). It is hardly ever a matter of either/or, but it may suffice for our purposes here to distinguish those who primarily deals with a search for evidence when trying to find out what happened (such as CSI), and those who focus much more on understanding
11 Statistics and the Inference to the Best Explanation: Living Without Complexity? 169 the reasons for the crime and thus on the interplay between the individual characters (part of a particular social environment and social practices) such as ‘Morse’. One could argue that in the first case the programme maker is drawing the viewer’s attention to physical evidence and in the second case to the clues which are hidden in what people do (or did) and how understanding that will resolve the issue (who committed the crime). Suspense is created in both cases until we find out how everything hangs together. Yet, in some sense, this plays a subordinate role in series such as ‘Morse’ or ‘Waking the Dead’, which is about so-called cold cases. Here the discipline of experts is combined in the field of psychological profiling, forensic science and police detection. Detective Superintendent Boyd plays the driven and dynamic leader of a crack squad of investigators which includes psychological profiler Dr Grace Foley, forensic scientist Dr Frankie Wharton, DC Mel Silver, and DS Spencer Jordan, Boyd’s second-in-command. Pushing it to the limit, the enjoyment of watching these two kinds of series lies (with the first category) in knowing who committed the crime; in the second, though that still plays a part, it seems that even if one knows who committed the crime, it is still possible to watch it a second time and enjoy the complex plot and various clues that trigger other ways of seeing things. It would be understandable if after all, it turns out that someone else had committed the murder. I will entertain for a moment the idea that what we do in research (explain how things work) has some similarities with what is at stake in these crime stories (the search for the truth). There are evidently huge differences: a crime story starts from the fact that a crime has been committed and that someone has committed it (it is about the past). This entails that it is at least in theory possible to unravel the past and thus to identify unambiguously the person who committed the crime. The researcher who is interested in how things work has a serious disadvantage. As he relies on concepts and theories to explain what happened, he will never be in a position to be as firm as the detective. Furthermore, once the mystery is solved, that is the end of the story. Research does not ’end’ in this way. There is always more to be taken into account and the situation may change (it is thus not only about the past but also about the future). But leaving this aside, there are interesting parallels. For example, the methods that are used to identify the criminal bear some resemblance to various statistical methods – in some cases statistics are used. Looking for DNA (sometimes conclusive but in cases of more distant relatives often not), for membership of particular groups, work environments and criminal records. Any of these methods may help to identify the perpetrator. While none of them are conclusive, the combination of some of them may generate elements which put the burden on the accused to explain, for example, why she was at a particular place. It is of course possible that there is a rational explanation for having been at a particular place (alternatively there are also cases when someone is framed), but this will have to be given before the detective is convinced. Further differentiations can be made when the two types of crime stories are considered together. Somehow the investigator of the CSI-type is blinded by the range of the kind of evidence that she is looking for – is there a logic of discovery operative here? There are methods to be followed and precautions to be taken so as not to contaminate the evidence; there
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Educational Research: The Ethics an
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Paul Smeyers · Marc Depaepe Editor
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Earlier Volumes in this Series Educ
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viii Contents 10 The Good, the Beau
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2 P. Smeyers and M. Depaepe their a
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4 P. Smeyers and M. Depaepe more fo
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6 P. Smeyers and M. Depaepe The cha
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8 P. Smeyers and M. Depaepe concern
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10 P. Smeyers and M. Depaepe appear
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Chapter 2 The Lure of Statistics fo
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2 The Lure of Statistics for Educat
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28 M. Depaepe of the Leuven Catholi
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30 M. Depaepe Tan’s final verdict
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32 M. Depaepe of methodological bot
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34 M. Depaepe tapping other sources
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36 M. Depaepe In the context of dem
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38 M. Depaepe combination. Moreover
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40 M. Depaepe 4. See Pelleriaux (19
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42 M. Depaepe Schneider, J. (2010).
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44 J.J.H. Dekker (see Section 4.4).
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46 J.J.H. Dekker from their own par
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48 J.J.H. Dekker a cohort study tha
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50 J.J.H. Dekker child” (Van IJze
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52 J.J.H. Dekker USA resulted in ev
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54 J.J.H. Dekker of the problem”.
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56 J.J.H. Dekker Dekker. J. J. H.,
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Chapter 5 Constructing Social Unity
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Chapter 7 To Frame the Unframable:
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Chapter 8 European Citizenship and
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Page 212 and 213: 202 R. Smith self-esteem, happiness
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Page 226 and 227: 216 About the Authors co-editor-in-
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218 About the Authors voor Wetensch
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220 Author Index Elkins, G. R., 190
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222 Author Index Silverman, J. G.,
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224 Subject Index I Inequality, 29-
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