RD&D-Programme 2004 - SKB

Conclusions in RD&D 2001 and its review
In SKI’s opinion, activities within the climate area should be given high priority. RD&D 2001
lacks a clear plan for how SKB intends to conduct research in the climate area. Both SKI and
SSI emphasize the importance of shoreline displacement, in view of the fact that two near-coast
areas are being studied as possible sites for a deep repository. This imposes stringent requirements
on the account of climate impact and the role of the biosphere in the safety assessment.
The authorities also deem it important to examine the importance of the greenhouse effect
for climate change more closely. This includes its possible importance both in a long-term
perspective, i.e. thousands to tens of thousands of years and even further in the future, and for
the next 1,000 years. SSI further notes that special attention should be given to the possible
climate variations during the next 1,000 years. SKI believes that SKB should, in addition to
participating in international projects, deal with Scandinavian conditions in its own projects.
SKB has no objections to the authorities’ comments.
Newfound knowledge since RD&D 2001
A project aimed primarily at investigating the basal conditions and hydrology of the
Scandinavian ice sheet was initiated in 2002. The project includes compilation of glaciogeological
information, numerical ice sheet modelling and process studies of the hydrology
of ice sheets. The project and knowledge gained so far are described in greater detail in
section 21.1.
Empirical studies of the shoreline displacement since the retreat of the most recent ice sheet
have been concluded /21-3/. The study embraces a large number of shoreline curves from all
over Scandinavia and the Baltic countries as well as Swedish lake-tilting data. The lake-tilting
data have enabled the isostatic (downwarping or upwarping of the earth’s crust) and eustatic
(changes in sea level) components to be distinguished. The data have been fitted to mathematical
expressions that provide a coherent description of the process of land uplift and shoreline
displacement all over Scandinavia and northeastern Europe. The expressions have been entered
into a Gis application with the ability to produce detailed descriptions of specific areas and/or
time periods. Archaeological findings show good agreement with the calculated shorelines. The
study is further mentioned in sections 21.1 and 21.3.
SKB has not conducted any studies of its own during the period on the earth’s climate system
and climate change. Particularly worthy of mention among the projects that have been followed
is the EU project Bioclim /21-1, 21-2, 21-4/. Other projects which SKB has deemed important
to follow are Sweclim /21-5/ and the work being done under the auspices of the IPCC /21-6/.
The long-term consequences of carbon dioxide emissions have been studied within Bioclim
/21-1, 21-2, 21-4/. The assumptions and models used indicate that atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentrations will remain high for a long time, approximately 200,000 years. This will
presumably perturb the cycle of glaciations characteristic of the Quaternary Period, and a very
long period – up around 200,000 years – with temperate/boreal conditions can be expected in
Sweden.
Programme
As already mentioned, studies of the Scandinavian ice sheet employing numerical ice sheet
modelling comprise a key project in SKB’s programme. To begin with the simulations are being
focused on the Weichselian Glaciation. A well-underpinned description of the Weichselian
period, where the model has been calibrated and validated against a large body of relevant
geological information, provides important input data for studies of shoreline displacement,
postglacial quakes, erosion and subglacial hydrological systems. The description also provides
input data for studies of permafrost, both periglacial and subglacial. The project is also
described in section 21.1.
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