RD&D-Programme 2004 - SKB

Socioeconomic impact
• Local development and regional mobilization around technical and large-scale projects.
The project, which is being carried out by the Department of Economic History at Umeå
University, will investigate the relationships between large-scale technical investments and the
long-term socioeconomic and political development of the local community during different
periods. The purpose is to learn how the socioeconomic structure of an individual community is
affected by the establishment of a new, large and technically advanced facility. This knowledge
will contribute to SKB’s, the municipalities’ and other stakeholders’ judgements of how the
establishment of the deep repository will affect the community’s economy in the short and long
term. The project will last two years, starting in the autumn of 2004.
In the study, Oskarshamn and Forsmark will be investigated at the time of the decision to
establish a nuclear power plant (innovation project with new technology), ten years before and
ten years after. Comparisons will be made with reference communities where there was no such
establishment during the period in question. Comparisons will also be made with reference
communities where projects involving conventional technology have been sited, for example
railway, hydropower (implementation projects with mature technology). Population, commuting,
income, property values and industrial structure are examples of important indicators in the
project.
• Long-term socioeconomic effects of large investments in small and medium-sized
communities.
The long-term local effects of investments on population and employment will be analyzed in
this project, which is being carried out by the Department of Social and Economic Geography
at Umeå University. This will be done by modelling the socioeconomic system in a dynamic
simulation model where the long-term effect of the investment is determined by comparing
scenarios with and without the investment. The model will be an instrument for consequence
analysis to answer important questions concerning the importance of investments for e.g.
population development and labour dynamics in the community where the investment is made.
The project will last two years, starting in the autumn of 2004.
A specially adapted microsimulation model will be used in the project where individuals are
followed and studied rather than groups of individuals (aggregates). Information on the individual’s
unique situation is crucial for being able to depict the dynamics of the socioeconomic
system with precision. Some examples of questions that will be addressed in the study are how
commuting streams change, how the size and demographic and socioeconomic composition
of the population can be affected, how the number of jobs in different segments of the labour
market is affected, and so on.
Decision processes
• Public, experts and deliberation.
The research project will be conducted at the Man-Technology-Environment Research Centre
at Örebro University. The study will start in January 2005 and last one and a half years.
Many different factors must be weighed together in deciding whether to establish a deep repository,
some of which may conflict with each other. Stringent safety and health standards must
be met, at the same time as broad participation in the decision process must be guaranteed. The
reason is that better judgements can be arrived at by making sure that other perspectives than
purely scientific ones are represented in the process, and that the credibility of risk assessments
and the legitimacy of decisions are perceived to be greater.
The purpose of the project is to learn more about how the different perspectives and judgements
of members of the public and experts are combined in consultation and decision processes
associated with the establishment of a deep repository. The study addresses the question of
how it is possible in a planning process to take into consideration both the public’s and experts’
perception of the risks associated with a deep repository.
304 RD&D-Programme 2004