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Caspian Report - Issue: 08 - Fall 2014

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Figure IV: China’s gas import sources<br />

MESUT HAKKI CASIN<br />

100<br />

a force of gravity. What about the<br />

US’ concerns According to Secretary<br />

of State John Kerry, “This isn’t<br />

new. This isn’t a sudden response<br />

to what’s been going on. And if the<br />

world benefits as a result of that,<br />

it’s fine. That’s not what’s at stake<br />

here.” 30 In this context we can say<br />

that Washington’s strategy against<br />

Moscow clearly involves strategies<br />

to create general market uncertainty<br />

that will destabilise Russia. When<br />

we evaluate the abovementioned<br />

developments, even the advantages<br />

for Russia, I think the real winner<br />

may be China, which has confirmed<br />

its new status as a global gas price<br />

setter. In addition, China is in a much<br />

stronger bargaining position against<br />

LNG suppliers in the United States,<br />

Canada, Australia, and the Middle<br />

East. Beijing took critical advantage<br />

of Russia’s weakening gas sales in<br />

Europe thanks to the ongoing crisis<br />

in the Ukraine. They demanded<br />

cheaper rates from Putin and got<br />

them. Thirdly, increased gas imports<br />

will also help Beijing in its declared<br />

“war on pollution” aimed at reducing<br />

its reliance on coal, which contributes<br />

to the harmful smog shrouding<br />

major cities. Another potential<br />

sticking point in talks was whether<br />

China would pay a lump sum up<br />

front to fund considerable infrastructure<br />

costs. In fact, according to<br />

Putin, China will provide $20 billion<br />

for gas development and infrastructure,<br />

but experts reported that the<br />

two sides were still in talks over any<br />

advance. This would be in tune with<br />

Beijing’s ambition to secure both resource<br />

flows and equity investment<br />

in neighbouring countries. Another<br />

words, for China, Russian pipeline<br />

gas has always been about guaranteed<br />

safe and secure supplies and<br />

achieving medium- and long-term<br />

socioeconomic development goals,<br />

especially for its industrial base located<br />

in northeast China, as part of<br />

its strategic course to transition to<br />

cleaner energy sources and go from<br />

coal to natural gas. 31<br />

CONCLUSION<br />

Russia-China cooperation has reached<br />

its highest level to date. China’s<br />

booming demand for gas could<br />

be a jump-start progress on the<br />

long-stalled pipeline project - the<br />

30.<br />

Matthew Lee: “Analysis: US plays down warming China-Russia ties”, https://news.yahoo.com/analysisus-plays-down-warming-china-russia-ties-042703015.html.<br />

31.<br />

Valdai, ibid.

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