Caspian Report - Issue: 08 - Fall 2014

RADU DUDAU
86
IN TERMS OF ENERGY, AS LONG AS AT THE EU LEVEL
NO SERIOUS JOINT POLICY IS OUTLINED, BUCHAREST
WILL HAVE TO RELY PRIMARILY ON ITS OWN ANALYSES IN
FORMING STRATEGIC ALLIANCES.
ciples of law relating to state succession).
Indeed, if offshore companies
holding concession licenses granted
by the Romanian state made finds
and started production from petroleum
fields extending across the
limits of Romania’s continental shelf
and EEZ into Crimea’s maritime
zone, Russia would likely initiate negotiations
on pooling and joint petroleum
development and operating
agreements, supported by multilateral
international agreements (UN-
CLOS, and the Charter of Economic
Rights and Obligations of the States
of 1974). Given the geopolitical context,
such negotiations would likely
be time-consuming and complex, 14
directly impacting Romanian energy
security aspirations. Of course, it is
also relevant that, while for Ukraine,
the Black Sea offshore is a crucial
element of national energy security,
the same is not true for Russia. On
the contrary, Moscow would prefer
to delay the commercial projects
of other riparian states in order to
maintain its regional monopoly.
Under such circumstances, were
Russia to choose a path of raw power
politics in the border region of
the EU and NATO, and challenge the
application of the ICJ decision in the
Romania vs. Ukraine case, it would
have two options:
• a geopolitical, power-driven approach
that would involve Romania
in complex situations depending on
Bucharest’s relevance and power as
a NATO and ET member state;
• a legal and judicial approach that
would take advantage of Russia’s
place in the UN Security Council.
A combination of the above two options
is more likely.
In geopolitical terms, it should be
noted that such a “game” would be
played in conditions of uncertainty.
Ukraine will remain riddled with instability.
In an attempt to move away
from Ukraine as a transit state, Russia
will focus on alternative conduits
such as the South Stream pipeline
project, and the strengthening of
bilateral relations with European
states that are deeply involved in the
Black Sea energy game – alongside
riparian states, such as Bulgaria and
Turkey, countries such as Austria, It-
14.
International law does not impose any obligation to conclude an agreement for joint
development of natural resources, but only to cooperate in this regard.