Caspian Report - Issue: 08 - Fall 2014

egional security, which, for obvious
reasons, cannot be resolved by
the countries affected on their own
Along with political and economic
engagement by Western countries,
there is a need for a clear and effective
Western policy, particularly on
conflict resolution. This approach
needs to be understood by the Western
allies as a strategic challenge and
an intermediary means of securing
their own long term energy security.
In that sense, even if there are
no immediate and effective means
to promptly resolve conflicts in
South Caucasus, the fragility stemming
from unresolved conflicts and
its direct causal link to securing the
regional and European energy security
cannot be ignored. It must be
addressed in a more specific manner.
In that sense, as a short to medium
term approach, NATO’s could
accelerate Georgia’s membership
(as Azerbaijan is not seeking any
integration into the Alliance at this
stage). In the long run however, in
order for the SGC to be successfully
launched and implemented, conflict
resolution in South Caucasus should
become an indispensible component
of the EU’s broader energy security
package.
CONCLUSION
The EU’s decision to intensify talks
on energy supply diversification
and the Southern Gas Corridor is a
more than welcome initiative. With
the potential to deliver 10 bcm to
South Europe, and bypassing Russia,
the SGC provides an excellent
opportunity for Europe to diversify
its supply and reduce Gazprom’s
virtual monopoly in the short to
medium term. With the possibility
of expanding the pipeline to include
other Central Asian and potentially
Iranian sources, Europe’s long term
energy security could also benefit.
There is also an undeniable political
and economic benefit to the supply
and transit countries, such as Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Turkey. However,
since the whole scenario may
be seen by Russia as a direct threat
to its strategic economic and political
interests, the security deficit in
South Caucasus, in particular the
unresolved conflicts, may become a
major threat to this project. Therefore,
effective measures need to be
taken by the EU and NATO in order
to guarantee the successful implementation
of the project, in order to
secure its diversified energy supply.
While short-term steps need to be
taken to observe the security situation
in the region via establishing
effective international observer missions,
conflict resolution needs to
become a central component of the
EU’s broader energy security strategy,
in order to safeguard the potential
of the entire concept.
67
CASPIAN REPORT, FALL 2014