Caspian Report - Issue: 08 - Fall 2014

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RADU DUDAU 68 THE UKRAINE CRISIS: LEGAL AND ENERGY SECURITY IMPACTS IN THE BLACK SEA BASIN RADU DUDAU DIRECTOR, THE ENERGY POLICY GROUP ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, BUCHAREST UNIVERSITY
The analysis of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict calls for a comprehensive approach that encompasses the energy equation. ABSTRACT This study discusses the consequences of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in relation to the legal status of the peninsula’s Black Sea offshore area (continental shelf and exclusive economic zone), with a focus on hydrocarbon exploration and production activities. The first section provides an overview of the geopolitical and energy security background to the ongoing crisis and to Russia- EU relations. Thereafter, the paper analyses the legal avenues Russia is likely to take in its attempt to consolidate sovereignty on Crimea. Finally, the study tackles the probable status of the maritime border with Romania, and the economic activities in the adjacent Romanian blocs. INTRODUCTION The analysis of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict calls for a comprehensive approach that encompasses the energy equation. In line with the trends that emerged as a consequence of the petroleum crises of the second half of the twentieth century, and especially from 1973, the current century has been characterised by a more structured and coordinated feedback dynamic in terms of energy-consumption, developed countries to the geopolitical challenges promoted by exporting-countries. At the global level, industrialised countries affected by the consequences of the world crisis are pursuing an energy independence and energy security crusade, focusing on the identification and exploitation of domestic resources, and on the consolidation of several profitable and secure supply routes. The shale gas “revolution” has pushed the United States forward in this regard, and has also had transformative effects upon Europe’s gas markets. On the other hand, as China has emerged as a major energy consumer, the geopolitical dynamic has become increasingly complex. Distrusting the capacity of international markets to ensure its energy security, Beijing has pursued direct involvement in Africa’s extractive industries via its national companies. In European context, the past decade has seen a dynamics of EU-Russia energy relations. On one hand, the EU is Russia’s main supplier, and despite the institutionalisation of the energy dialogue, the lack of a common strategic approach and the risk of a new “gas war” remains a key challenge. On the other hand, the security of energy supply is a key component of Russia’s security policy, as expressly stated in the Energy Security Strategy of the Russian Federation in 2009. Over the last decade, Russia has sought unsuccessfully to bring coordinate its “zero-sum” approach to foreign energy policy with the institutionalisation of the energy dia- 69 CASPIAN REPORT, FALL <strong>2014</strong>
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CASPIAN PUBLISHED BY CASPIAN STRATE
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Dear Readers, CASPIAN REPORT 2 It i
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CASPIAN CASPIAN REPORT 4 06 FATIH M
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FATIH MACIT, HOLLY REHM 6 THE U.S.
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FATIH MACIT, HOLLY REHM 8 shale rev
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FATIH MACIT, HOLLY REHM 10 in the 1
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FATIH MACIT, HOLLY REHM 12 SINCE TH
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FATIH MACIT, HOLLY REHM 14 these tw
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FATIH MACIT, HOLLY REHM 16 LNG’s
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Page 22 and 23: MANFRED HAFNER 20 THE SOUTHERN GAS
Page 24 and 25: MANFRED HAFNER 22 THE DOCUMENT RECO
Page 26 and 27: MANFRED HAFNER 24 Notwithstanding t
Page 28 and 29: MANFRED HAFNER 26 TANAP, A PROJECTE
Page 30 and 31: MANFRED HAFNER 28 by the Shah Deniz
Page 32 and 33: MANFRED HAFNER 30 Snam Rete Gas has
Page 34 and 35: MANFRED HAFNER 32 THE ESTABLISHMENT
Page 36 and 37: MATTEO VERDA 34 LNG MARKET: TRENDS
Page 38 and 39: MATTEO VERDA 36 traditionally accou
Page 40 and 41: MATTEO VERDA 38 bcm), Brunei (9 bcm
Page 42 and 43: MATTEO VERDA 40 for transport vesse
Page 44 and 45: MATTEO VERDA 42 of the global LNG m
Page 46 and 47: MUBARIZ HASANOV 44 AN OVERVIEW OF E
Page 48 and 49: MUBARIZ HASANOV 46 Figure 1. Primar
Page 50 and 51: MUBARIZ HASANOV 48 Figure 4. Real c
Page 52 and 53: Figure 7. Price of transport fuels
Page 54 and 55: Figure 10. Electricity generation i
Page 56 and 57: Figure 13. Breakdown of electricity
Page 58 and 59: THE SOUTHERN GAS CORRIDOR - WINDOW
Page 60 and 61: NINO KALANDADZE 58 become comprise
Page 62 and 63: NINO KALANDADZE 60 This picture mak
Page 64 and 65: NINO KALANDADZE 62 Security policy.
Page 66 and 67: NINO KALANDADZE 64 There are benefi
Page 68 and 69: NINO KALANDADZE 66 tion of Crimea b
Page 72 and 73: RADU DUDAU 70 RUSSIA HAS FREQUENTLY
Page 74 and 75: RADU DUDAU 72 Russia, which depends
Page 76 and 77: RADU DUDAU 74 WHAT INTERNATIONAL LA
Page 78 and 79: RADU DUDAU 76 THE NEAR FUTURE WILL
Page 80 and 81: RADU DUDAU 78 THE UKRAINIAN GOVERNM
Page 82 and 83: RADU DUDAU 80 parliament decided to
Page 84 and 85: Black Sea Serpents’ Island. RADU
Page 86 and 87: RADU DUDAU 84 (where Russia holds v
Page 88 and 89: RADU DUDAU 86 IN TERMS OF ENERGY, A
Page 90 and 91: WHY RUSSIA SIGNED A MAJOR GAS CONTR
Page 92 and 93: MESUT HAKKI CASIN 90 I will focus o
Page 94 and 95: Russian President Vladimir Putin sh
Page 96 and 97: Figure II: Russian energy infrastru
Page 98 and 99: Kazakhstan President Nursultan Naza
Page 100 and 101: MESUT HAKKI CASIN 98 economic devel
Page 102 and 103: Figure IV: China’s gas import sou
Page 104 and 105: THANOS DOKOS, THEODORE TSAKIRIS 102
Page 116 and 117: ARZU YORKAN 114 TURKEY’S RENEWABL
Page 118 and 119: ARZU YORKAN 116 is 12 th in the wor
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Figure 4: Solar Energy Potential At
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ARZU YORKAN 120 Figure 8: The share
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ARZU YORKAN 122 THE STRATEGY PAPER
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ARZU YORKAN 124 TURKEY HAS NOT YET
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CASPIAN
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THE EU AGREEMENT ON THE 2030 FRAMEW
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EU Commission President Jean Claude
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ROMAN RUKOMEDA 132 THE PHANTOM OF R
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Russia’s gas giant Gazprom CEO, A
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CASPIAN CALL FOR PAPERS 136 Caspian
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Caspian Report - Issue: 08 - Fall 2014

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